2121 replies to this topic

[Paul]

Please continue here...

[Gavin D]

IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) October model update is also going for a Cold but Dry winter for most of Europe (UK Included)

http://www.jamstec.g...12.1oct2011.gif - Rain Fall

http://www.jamstec.g...12.1oct2011.gif - Temps

[cheeky_monkey]

Gavin D, on 14 October 2011 - 15:22 , said:

IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) October model update is also going for a Cold but Dry winter for most of Europe (UK Included)

http://www.jamstec.g...12.1oct2011.gif - Rain Fall

http://www.jamstec.g...12.1oct2011.gif - Temps

Looks very cold and snowier than normal for my part of the world

[Seven of Nine]

Strange temp profiles for the globe.

[johnny1972]

I haven't posted for a while but follow the winter topics Inc the arctic ice and northern hemisphere snow topics with great interest daily.

I have to say fair play to all on here who have issued winter forecasts and given good reasons for their forecasts ie BFTP.

Edited by reef, 14 October 2011 - 16:03 .
This has already been dealt with by the team, please leave it be. Thanks.

[Backtrack]

Looking like an average November this year. Not like the last unfortunately according to the CFS, but still plenty of time for that to change.

[kold weather]

I'm expecting a boradly similar winter profile to last, but I'd never ever be able to forecast such a severe spell this far ahead! All i'll say is I expect another strong cold spell between the 20th November-20th December, probably not as severe or as long but certainly decent...The key uncertainty though is Jan for me...I think Feb will be mild but Jan could swing either way IMO.

[Aaron]

If you ask me we are long overdue a nationwide cold spell in February, 2009 didn't cut it I'm afraid!

[kold weather]

Hmmm to be honest Feb 2009 probably DID cut it, its pretty rare to get a true nationwide event, probably the only true nationwide event of the last years would be the 5-6th Jan 2010 event, and even that didn't give a few areas near the Wash all that much snow.

Anyway the CFS looks interesting today, I think most here would take a winter like that, cool and unsettled with a good cold spell in Decembner/Jan and also a quick burst in early December.

[Aaron]

February 2009 wasn't really cold. In fact, at Leeds Bradford Airport, it was slightly above average temperature rise.. so by nation wide spell I mean nationwide cold as opposed to nationwide snow..

[summer blizzard]

kold weather, on 14 October 2011 - 16:01 , said:

I'm expecting a boradly similar winter profile to last, but I'd never ever be able to forecast such a severe spell this far ahead! All i'll say is I expect another strong cold spell between the 20th November-20th December, probably not as severe or as long but certainly decent...The key uncertainty though is Jan for me...I think Feb will be mild but Jan could swing either way IMO.

I am actually quite optimistic. I agree with you that there will be an early cold spell (though i could never forecast severity on the scale of last year) however i also think that January will continue the cold trend (around 75% of strengthening -QBO winters had a January colder than average). February for me is the puzzle because ENSO and QBO data is fairly neutral which is making me look towards the PDO and AO for guidence, PDO anologues are ridonculus for cold but AO anologues are fairly mixed.

Full forecast will be released around the 20th November. While it will likely change my current opinion is based on..

Weak La Nina (possibly moderate by winters end but weak on tri-monthly values) and strengthening
-QBO strengthening
-PDO
-AO

December very dry but fairly cold (high pressure over/west of the UK)
January currently looks very good with major Greenland blocking and possibly very cold
February currently putting out a mixed signal

Aaron, on 14 October 2011 - 16:26 , said:

February 2009 wasn't really cold. In fact, at Leeds Bradford Airport, it was slightly above average temperature rise.. so by nation wide spell I mean nationwide cold as opposed to nationwide snow..

February 2009 was strange though, a very cold first half which was followed by one of the warmest second half on record.

[Robbie Garrett]

Seven of Nine, on 14 October 2011 - 15:45 , said:

Strange temp profiles for the globe.

I've just noticed that, it seems to be widespread not just the Northern Hemisphere. Global Warming my ***!

[moogyboobles]

I've noticed the shops are pretty enthusiastic it'll be a cold one this year. Asda has had snow shovels and bags of salt piled up in the foyer for a week now!

[Liam J]

moogyboobles, on 14 October 2011 - 22:09 , said:

I've noticed the shops are pretty enthusiastic it'll be a cold one this year. Asda has had snow shovels and bags of salt piled up in the foyer for a week now!

I was also greeted by a huge pile of snow shovels at my local asda along with grit/salt!! All the Christmas lines were behind these. I nearly bought a shovel @ £8, it would be far easier than using a bog standard spade like last year!

But I didn't want to buy it and then it sit in the garage all winter as last years snowfalls and cold were exceptional, in a normal or average winter I don't usually recieve nearly half as much snow (if any) as I did last year in my location.

Edited by Liam J, 14 October 2011 - 22:25 .

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Can I just say I haven't posted winter LRF but just suggested my thoughts/anticipation?! God knows whats coming when I do.

BFTP

[ElectricSnowStorm]

Saying that BFTP im wondering if i should let my forecast loose on here! it will be my first full one and am not to worried if it goes wrong but i am confident in most of what i see is coming, but its getting the setups in the places you expect them to be! small shifts can make a difference.
anyway this is an interesting one to forecast this year especially after the last two!
The jet stream is showing southerly movements as i expected and expect it to keep going south but wobbling as it does, this could be until late november, with winter bringing a very south track over Spain, the atlantic mostly blocked off from throwing warm lows over us although some heading across north France early winter, as the jet moves south, i also see a dry winter in the way of rainfall, not floods, as we can get in winter, that usually comes from an active atlantic with low after low and mild moist air battling against cool air creating very wet slow moving fronts, i just dont see that situation evolving, what i do see is significant widespread distruptive snowfall from the n/ne through much of early winter into january, only broken by cloudy cold days with little precipitation,
more later..

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm, 15 October 2011 - 00:47 .

[willkani]

Arctic Blast To Bring Snow


http://www.express.c...sts/view/277583

[WorsleySnow]

willkani, on 15 October 2011 - 01:57 , said:

Arctic Blast To Bring Snow


http://www.express.c...sts/view/277583

My God what will the Daily Mail bring us, the next ice age!?!!?!

Edited by WorsleySnow, 15 October 2011 - 04:24 .

[willinkent]

0c and first thick frost here..... cars all covered in thick sugary coating woopwoop....bring on winter....please

[Aaron]

Look, look, winter is here!