Sept into Oct 2011 Warm Spell Discussion..

[conor123]

Thought it would be good to a thread for discussing the upcoming Indian Summer spell.

Looks like the potential for somewhere to exceed 25c is there everyday from Tuesday - Saturday at least.

With more a SW flow now being progged aswell humidity amounts may well be quite high in the west, also UV indexes now between 2-3 so

no danger of sunburn.

Edited September 24, 2011 by conor123

[I remember Atlantic 252]

warmest day I think 28°C for SE England on Sat 1st, the day before the breakdown, guess wet on sunday 2nd

[Costa Del Fal]

Thought it would be good to a thread for discussing the upcoming Indian Summer spell.

Looks like the potential for somewhere to exceed 25c is there everyday from Tuesday - Saturday at least.

With more a SW flow now being progged aswell humidity amounts may well be quite high in the west, also UV indexes now between 2-3 so

no danger of sunburn.

I hope many dont think this because whilst the sun isnt as strong now a UV index of 3 can still burn slowly and with clear skies later this week likely, burning will occur if people are not careful!

A UV Index of 3 comes under the Moderate range - "Seek shade during midday hours, cover up and wear sunscreen."

Edited September 24, 2011 by Blizzards

[AderynCoch]

With more a SW flow now being progged aswell humidity amounts may well be quite high in the west, also UV indexes now between 2-3 so no danger of sunburn.

I think I'll explode if this turns into yet another NW/SE split, as I've been so looking forward these past couple of days to finally getting high pressure in the right place i.e. south-southeasterly winds which are traditionally very good for my area with regards to heat.

Models, PLEASE backtrack immediately from this new trend towards a southwesterly component.

[johnholmes]

I hope many dont think this because whilst the sun isnt as strong now a UV index of 3 can still burn slowly and with clear skies later this week likely, burning will occur if people are not careful!

A UV Index of 3 comes under the Moderate range - "Seek shade during midday hours, cover up and wear sunscreen."

a sensible precaution

[bobbydog]

I hope many dont think this because whilst the sun isnt as strong now a UV index of 3 can still burn slowly and with clear skies later this week likely, burning will occur if people are not careful!

A UV Index of 3 comes under the Moderate range - "Seek shade during midday hours, cover up and wear sunscreen."

or light the barbie, crack open a beer and enjoy it!

[SP1986]

Yes UV index of 3 will burn people with UV sensitive skin, mostly those with white, fair and freckly skins (also those with moles).

Myself have never had issues with UV index 3. A while ago I remember walking in UV index 4, and whilst I wasn't feeling any discomfort from the sun, my partner said she felt burning, which led me to believe you can tell if you might burn, and every person has a different tolerance.

For the majority UV index of 2-3 will not hurt unless you are sensitive to the sun, or have a low skin type.. you know your own body best though.

Personally I won't worry in October as the sun is generally weak at this point.

[Milhouse]

Personally i believe there is a real chance of breaking some date records. Reason is if you look at the models, i really cant see any improvement that could be made to deliver added warmth. The BBC are already going for 27c in places on Wednesday and the warm spell has several more days to go after then so every chance the heat will build further (as it usually does).

[Stormyking]

Im looking forward to this warm spell, going to enjoy it as much as I can, then once october is finished bring on the cold!!!

[Updraft]

I'm personally not looking forward to the warm spell, but here in East Kent near the sea it'll probably not get that warm.

[Isolated Frost]

I'm personally not looking forward to the warm spell, but here in East Kent near the sea it'll probably not get that warm.

You should still see temperatures reaching 23-25C - East Kent is one of the most affected of all areas, no matter how close to the coast you are

[summer blizzard]

Yes UV index of 3 will burn people with UV sensitive skin, mostly those with white, fair and freckly skins (also those with moles).

Myself have never had issues with UV index 3. A while ago I remember walking in UV index 4, and whilst I wasn't feeling any discomfort from the sun, my partner said she felt burning, which led me to believe you can tell if you might burn, and every person has a different tolerance.

For the majority UV index of 2-3 will not hurt unless you are sensitive to the sun, or have a low skin type.. you know your own body best though.

Personally I won't worry in October as the sun is generally weak at this point.

Personally i believe there is a real chance of breaking some date records. Reason is if you look at the models, i really cant see any improvement that could be made to deliver added warmth. The BBC are already going for 27c in places on Wednesday and the warm spell has several more days to go after then so every chance the heat will build further (as it usually does).

Personally i am quite lucky in that i can only burn between May and July, the rest of time i barely feel the sun and tend to go straight brown rather than a beetroot.

In regards to date records the only one we may be able to take is the 30th September as that is only 27C, 1895 has the rest at around 30C.

[Summer Sun]

I'm going for 28c +, most likely time for this to happen will be between Wednesday and Saturday and of course London and or the South East will be the most likely spot for this to occur.

[Lake District Blizzard]

forecast 23c, It will be cloudy./ drizzly / damp / and about 18c max, like all the other heatwave days here this summer except one

[Ben_Cambs]

I'm guessing 28.5C will be the maximum temperature recorded in the upcoming spell, I think my location has a good chance to get within that figure.

Edited September 24, 2011 by Ben_Cambs

[conor123]

Ive never caught the sun with such a low UV index before despite having sensitive skin so i was assuming it would be unlikely with most people building up some sort of protective tan over the summer but i agree i may have just assumed due to personally experience.

Anyway im going for 27c being the warmest temperature in the upcoming spell, the GFS has downgraded temperatures slightly but usually undercooks values so shall see.

Edited September 24, 2011 by conor123

[Aaron]

The Met Office are forecasting 26°C for my location next week, so a temperature above 28°C somewhere in the South East or East Anglia seems very possible to me.

Date records seem likely to go next week too.

Edited September 24, 2011 by Aaron

[Lake District Blizzard]

There we go, as expected, one sunny day of 23c on wednesday, then thursday forecast to be 17c light rain, while elsewhere is 23-28c, sums up the summer well

[I remember Atlantic 252]

There we go, as expected, one sunny day of 23c on wednesday, then thursday forecast to be 17c light rain, while elsewhere is 23-28c, sums up the summer well

yeah bbc give the NW/SE split for thursday, rain in NW, hot sun in SE and cloudy in middle, im forecasted white cloud and 21°C

[Evening thunder]

I think it may be 28C+ as the MetO already say 27C in spots on Wednesday, and slightly warmer uppers may come in after that.

It's times like this it can be a bit annoying living near the south coast from a heat/interesting weather perspective. A southerly wind isn't much good if you have the sea to your south. What we need here is a surface flow that isn't from the south (best is usually a light easterly in summer when the weather can be very hot without a direct southerly flow - like late June 1976 with many days >30C and up to 33C here)

Still - it should be very pleasant with low 20s and it will be interesting seeing temps in other parts.

Edit: I the BBC has Norwich forecast for 28C on Thursday currently: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/24

Edited September 24, 2011 by Stormmad26

[scotty_boy_winter]

lol

im so glad i live in the east of the country, even in winter we usually get the best of the action

I think I'll explode if this turns into yet another NW/SE split, as I've been so looking forward these past couple of days to finally getting high pressure in the right place i.e. south-southeasterly winds which are traditionally very good for my area with regards to heat.

Models, PLEASE backtrack immediately from this new trend towards a southwesterly component.

[Bethany C]

As long as it's warm enough for me to put my washing out, I really don't mind. I'm not looking forward to the global warming supporters saying that three days of nice weather means we are all doomed though.

[A.J]

Must admit, I'm looking forward to some warmth the next few days, hopefully living near Brum it should be fairly sunny and not too much cloud....One last gasp of summer before I can settle down and look forward to seeing those charts with blue coloured 850 temp profiles and the hopefully ever increasing prospects of the 'S' word!

[Milhouse]

Latest BBC forecast had 26c on Wednesday and Thursday, 27c on Friday. Therefore could it be 28c on Saturday? I would imagine so.

[The PIT]

Great a hot day watching football not really what's football is about really. Pity we're not playing away as I could enjoy the weather in the garden.