2012 UK Drought

[TonyH]

A rough tot up for Coventry shows that the past 18 months has had only about 640mm rainfall while Feb 75 to July 76 had 660mm, so this spell is highly comparable with that one.

Interestingly these 18 month totals are slightly below the annual average.

Edited March 22, 2012 by TonyH

[reef]

Looking at the Hull rainfall figures, the 19 month period Feb 1975 - August 1976 had 716.9mm, however that compares now to 597.6mm in the last 19 months at this location.

The current spell is definitely more severe.

2011 only just lost to 1864 as the driest year (351.0mm against 338.3mm), but for the 24 month rolling figure in this area its the driest on record, the previous was May 1863 - April 1865 at 762.5mm compared to 755.4mm from Mar 2010 - Feb 2012.

[Mikel Nimbus]

London clay is notorious for causing subsidence during dry weather and for some reason this area of London always suffers badly. There are a few cracks in the wall in my room which have grown bigger and bigger over the last year. It has also caused the roof to leak in one place and the garden pathway to crack. I don't know how it works exactly, but I'm hoping that when it does rain the clay will expand again and everything will click back into place. :unsure:

As for rainfall, we measured 485.2mm 1st March 2011 - 29th Feb 2012.

I really don't want a washout summer, but we are probably going to need it if things are to get back to normal.

[Terminal Moraine]

Looking at the Hull rainfall figures, the 19 month period Feb 1975 - August 1976 had 716.9mm, however that compares now to 597.6mm in the last 19 months at this location.

The current spell is definitely more severe.

2011 only just lost to 1864 as the driest year (351.0mm against 338.3mm), but for the 24 month rolling figure in this area its the driest on record, the previous was May 1863 - April 1865 at 762.5mm compared to 755.4mm from Mar 2010 - Feb 2012.

Much drier at your location, relative to average, than it's been here.

The current 18 month running total here stands at 1419.2 mm which is well above the lowest recorded 18 month total of 974.3mm from April 1995-Sept' 1996. This is the only instance of the 18 month running total falling below 1000mm here since I opened the site in 1977.

The total from March 1975-Aug' 1976 would probably have been slightly lower than this. I was recording at a different site then, lower down and drier, but do have a 9 year overlap of records which would suggest a total here for that 18 month period of about 954mm.

[Nick L]

I have to say, that despite the lack of rainfall, the grass seems remarkably green, certainly no hints of anything yellow/brown yet here.

[Andy Bown]

I have to say, that despite the lack of rainfall, the grass seems remarkably green, certainly no hints of anything yellow/brown yet here.

Plentiful dew overnight to keep it wetted and, down here at least, several foggy days last week kept everyhting moisture laden.

[Aaron]

Sun is in full force and temperature has risen accordingly, now 14.4C, just 12C less then an hour ago

[Costa Del Fal]

Plentiful dew overnight to keep it wetted and, down here at least, several foggy days last week kept everyhting moisture laden.

Yes I suspect this the reason why the grass remains green also. If the dry weather persists though through the rest of spring it won't be long till we probably see it turning yellow/brown again!

[recklessabandon]

London clay is notorious for causing subsidence during dry weather and for some reason this area of London always suffers badly. There are a few cracks in the wall in my room which have grown bigger and bigger over the last year. It has also caused the roof to leak in one place and the garden pathway to crack. I don't know how it works exactly, but I'm hoping that when it does rain the clay will expand again and everything will click back into place. :unsure:

As for rainfall, we measured 485.2mm 1st March 2011 - 29th Feb 2012.

I really don't want a washout summer, but we are probably going to need it if things are to get back to normal.

I have the same problem in the north-east with cracking due to drying of the clays.

I work as a geotechnical engineer, and your'e correct, London Clay does generally recover to it's equilibrium state when recharged with moisture. However, not all clays recover in the same way, some will be altered once the process of desiccation has begun, and will not recover to a 'default' setting resulting in permanent settlement (or heave should you have a persistent deluge) I expect this to become a real problem this summer in the absence of any substantive recharge in soils moisture and groundwater levels....so watch this space.

i would be particularly concerned about those properties constructed in the relatively wet summers of around 2006/2007 (think that's correct) where the desiccation will be seriously testing clay formations for the first time.....

[Paul]

A look at the current dry spell and the affect it's having:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=1043;sess=

[The PIT]

We're on 30 mm for the month with just over 18mm of that falling in a 24 hour period. This puts us back above the 1975/76 period which shows how difficult it is break this record.

The ground is still wet so the grass and weeds are growing rapidly. Plants that draw from a deeper source like our hedges aren't showing much in the way of growth.

I suspect if we didn't have the misty weather the ground would have dried out nicely this week.

[The PIT]

Just done a quick add up and if the month stays dry until the end we will be just 6 mm above 1975/76. The big differance though we haven't had the heat ... yet.

Edited March 24, 2012 by The PIT

[cyclonic happiness]

Just done a quick add up and if the month stays dry until the end we will be just 6 mm above 1975/76. The big differance though we haven't had the heat ... yet.

We all know only too well that it's been dry for so long that it'll breeak with a absolutely awful rainey spell and guess which season it'll fall in?

I only hope we at least get some decent thunderstorms or flooding or that.

[summer blizzard]

Looking like March will finish with 30.1mm nationally which is actually wetter than last year, less than 20mm here in Leeds though following on from a very dry February.

http://www.climate-uk.com/

[J10]

Looking at that for Wales we are at 51% of rain to the 20th, given the dryness since then this percentage will drop possibly closer to 30% by the end of the month.

[Costa Del Fal]

Models are swiftly moving to a more High pressure outlook for next week now. Until at least later next week there is no rain in the outlook for England and Wales now. I suspect this could continue to get pushed back.

[The PIT]

Aaah tonights news the first mention it's all down to climate change and the trend has been for dryer springs. Not here anyway just the normal cycle since 1955. Some dry runs and some wet runs. http://www.sheffieldweather.co.uk/Averages/MONTHLYRAINAVERAGE.htm

Pity I haven't lived for 500 years the charts then would be more interesting.

[Lauren]

Can't say I'm surprised by the drought. I said to people I wouldn't be surprised if there was one as our winter rainfall had been so low. It's heating up for summer now and we've had not even a quarter of the 'normal' rainfall where I am here, so unless we get some April showers or a wet summer, things could get pretty serious I think.

Time to purchase a watering can!

[Alex95]

The local park is like a dustbowl here, and it hasn't even been that dry compared with other parts of the country.

[Coast]

Max Hastings, writing in the Daily Mail, has been playing tennis every evening this week, how lovely......

Here's his view on the drought:

This glorious weather will bring us nothing but misery

Summer sun and it's only March. Looking at his parched garden, MAX HASTINGS ponders the foolishness of Britain's politicians and planners

Frankly, if I hear one more thoughtless voice say ‘lovely day, isn’t it?’ I shall scream. One does not make foolish remarks like that in the midst of the Gobi Desert, or stumbling through Sahara sands under a broiling sun — and that is the way our own sceptred but tragically dried-up isle is heading. Yes, it is wonderfully warm for the time of year; I have been playing tennis every evening as if this was a balmy June.

But take a look a yard beyond the patio or motorway: across most of southern and central England, the soil is hard and cracking. Some plants already look distressed. Many more will soon do likewise, even mature trees. March is not yet over but, after the driest winter on record, seven English water companies are next week due to impose hosepipe bans. Chalk streams are unprecedentedly low, though commercial abstraction continues unchecked.

Birds and amphibians face a torrid spring and summer, as do millions of gardeners. Far from wishing to see the sun beaming stupidly down on us, we need deluges of almost biblical proportions to restore the balance of nature, and there is no sign that we shall get them. A combination of climate change, extravagant water use and poor economy threatens not merely Britain’s environment, but that of large parts of the world, with deep and lasting damage.

Squandered

The story is familiar: during mankind’s Age of Abundance, now emphatically ended, we squandered water and took wholly inadequate steps to protect it as a resource. On this overcrowded island particularly, we have designed everything we built for the past two centuries with a view to making rainwater flow as quickly as possible into the sea. We have drained swamps and wetlands, laid countless millions of square feet of concrete and tar, which rain runs off quickly, with no chance to seep into the soil and refill aquifers.

Even in dry winters, we still get enough water — if only we could hang onto it. But we do not, and the result is the fine, dry mess in which we find ourselves. Most of us drink only a couple of litres of water a day, but baths and washing machines boost average consumption to 150 litres, doubled by those with significant gardens and power-washers.

In hot Australia, daily suburban consumption rises to 350 litres, in the U.S. to 400. But the largest consumer of water is agriculture. It takes up to 5,000 litres to grow a kilo of rice, 11,000 litres to make enough beef to produce a hamburger, similarly amazing quantities to grow coffee or cotton. Most of this is, of course, provided by rainfall. But if something goes wrong with God’s arrangements, then not merely farmers but all of us are in trouble. During the last super-drought in 1976, food prices rose by 12 per cent. Today, river levels are already below those of the same time that year.

The Kennet, our local chalk stream in Wiltshire, is almost dry above Marlborough, yet the water company continues to abstract huge quantities of water for thirsty Swindon. Wessex Water takes a billion litres of water a year for Somerset from the little Wiltshire Wylye. The very survival is threatened of 40 out of 100 chalk streams in southern England, where we and our forefathers have wandered and cast flies for trout for centuries.

Trigger

Some countries have been experimenting with cloud-seeding to promote rainfall. In Israel and parts of the U.S., aircraft scatter silver-iodide crystals above rain clouds, to trigger and intensify precipitation. Evidence is inconclusive about whether seeding makes economic sense, but it surely wouldn’t in Britain. In northern Chile’s Atacama desert, scientists had some success in capturing water suspended in local fogs by collecting it in plastic sheeting. A 12-by-three metre sheet can generate 150 litres in a day.

Desalination technologies are constantly improving. Before we are much older, more of these plants are likely to be operating in the South-East, where population density and demand are highest. Meanwhile, there is fierce ongoing debate about whether we should build more reservoirs. The water companies want them. However, critics rage at the prospect of further shrinking our countryside to accommodate them. They argue that, instead, it would benefit everyone if the water companies invested the same money in cutting huge waste from pipeline leakage.

Indeed, the most powerful argument against more reservoirs is that they are little help when — as now — the ones we already have are half-empty. I prefer the solutions advocated by environmentalist Fred Pearce, who has been warning for years about the threat to our water supplies. He urges, first, giving rivers more space: rather than embanking them to improve flow, he says we should slow them by keeping curves and promoting wetland beside their banks.

Seep

We need a crash programme to encourage rainwater to seep gently into the earth rather than to be quickly lost down drains. Our ancestors knew what they were doing: cobblestones allowed moisture to linger beneath city streets, instead of being hurried away into drains by unbroken sheets of tar and concrete. Above all, it’s imperative that we must waste less water. Even in normal times, garage car washes that do not recycle their water seem grotesquely extravagant. It is absurd that they are not being shut down alongside the hosepipe ban.

More controversially, we need to accept that we’re going to have to pay more for water, if only to make us think more about how to use it. If every lavatory in London were converted to an economic flush system, this would halve usage to six litres a time, and would cost less than building a new reservoir. As for the coming summer, we need a great many grey skies and downpours.

In 1976, the daytime thermometer reached 80f (27c) every day between June 22 and July 16. If anything like that happens again, by autumn, our land will look anything but green and pleasant. But what a sadness it is, as I am already witnessing, to see green shoots wilting under cloudless skies in March.

Whatever sceptics may say, it seems prudent for us all to get down on our knees and ask someone up there to help, because no one down here will solve this one before the leaves fall.

http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz1qIdJ22XN

[Thundery wintry showers]

Things are indeed getting very serious- a dry winter in the drought-affected areas and now a very dry March, and there is no certainty over the weather turning wetter towards April. I remember often thinking last year while down in Norwich, "what is it going to take to get significant rainfall down here?". However, while I'm certainly strongly concerned about it, I haven't let it detract from my making the most of the recent summer-like weather, as will be true of most of us I reckon.

More controversially, we need to accept that we’re going to have to pay more for water, if only to make us think more about how to use it.

If this is true (which is, as he says, controversial) we should accompany it with greater use and availability of water meters, and tailor prices according to water availability- otherwise we're going to get the problem of moderate water users, the Scots, the Welsh and the northern & western English all being heavily punished for the mis-management of water resources in the south-east. I suppose the water boards would be happy with that because it would boost their profits, and there is a fairly strong agenda out there to get everybody to move to the south-east (resulting in, ahem, even less ability to cope with drought due to higher population density...)

It's the Daily Mail of course, but it's true that continued dry weather for the remainder of spring and into summer could be disastrous towards the SE in particular.

[damianslaw]

March and April on average are the driest months of the year. April can be a very dry month indeed with the atlantic generally in its weakest state - the best to hope for is a cool cloudy month with showery outbreaks, a month like last April would be very bad news indeed as the extra heat in the sun will really start to takes its toll.. I don't foresee any sudden end to the drought conditions, and even a wet summer wouldn't ease the situation that much thanks to evaporation, but it would help of course, it is a wet autumn that is really needed, if we see another dry winter (the fifth on the trot.. quite unusual), we really need a wet autumn, it has been the very dry autumns of the past 2 years coupled with the dry winters which have been the killer. Spring on the whole is by far the driest season of the year and dry springs normally cause no need for concern provided the rest of the year delivers at average wet weather on even slightly below average wetter than normal conditions.

Its a long time since we have seen a very wet autumn throughout - Nov 2009 was an exception but came on the back of a very dry sept and october, the last wet autumn as a whole was probably back in 2004 and the last very wet autumn was in 2000.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Autumn 2004 was generally drier than average in eastern Britain as a wet October was sandwiched by notably dry months in September and November. Thus, it appears that the most recent wet autumn in the drought-affected areas was the exceptional one back in 2000.

[Aaron]

We're not in drought here though it has been very dry too, I recorded less then 460mm of rainfall last year.

The last above average month here was February 2011 which had around 75mm of rain (will have to check). The last really wet month though was November 2009 with 111mm of rain, and before that, July 2009 with 101mm of rain.. come on, let's get a 100mm+ month

[PersianPaladin]

Things are getting really bad in northern Spain:-

http://photoblog.msn...-northern-spain

Edited March 27, 2012 by PersianPaladin