UK Convective General Discussion & Forecasts

[IanR]

bbc have put a lightning symbol for sunday on their local 5 day forecast for this area, with the word 'thunderstorm' as opposed to thundery shower, thats jinxed it then.

then again they always remove these nearer the time to be replaced 'by 'light shower' or' white cloud'

[Eabie]

Has anyone been watching Hurricane Katia's projected path? I read yesterday that it might impact the UK. Obviously not as a hurricane anymore, but still, something perhaps to keep an eye on?

[Coast]

Has anyone been watching Hurricane Katia's projected path?

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=790;sess=

http://forum.netweat...urricane-katia/

[Nick F]

Has anyone been watching Hurricane Katia's projected path? I read yesterday that it might impact the UK. Obviously not as a hurricane anymore, but still, something perhaps to keep an eye on?

Certainly worth keeping an eye on, both GFS and ECM this morning show the ex-tropical storm having a close brush with the NW early next week. GFS with its usual darboard low.

With regards to late Friday/early Saturday, GFS shows some MLCAPE towards SE England and E Anglia, due to advection north of warm moist plume ahead of low to the west, though it doesn't break out any precip apart from offshore over the south N Sea.

[Harry]

Is there really any point paying the remotest nanosecond of our brain power on "friday's potential"?

I'll give you a forecast without looking at the charts and we can see how accurate it is....

[Coast]

I'll give you a forecast without looking at the charts and we can see how accurate it is....

You have become soooooo pessimistic Harry !!!

[Nick F]

You have become soooooo pessimistic Harry !!!

You know the drill by now Coast, the near continent takes it all ...

[Robbie Garrett]

Is there really any point paying the remotest nanosecond of our brain power on "friday's potential"?

I'll give you a forecast without looking at the charts and we can see how accurate it is....

Loool you so optimistic, I reckon you should edit it to reflect that there is a barrier on the English Channel that says Lettuce off Thunderstorms, to annoy the UK storm chasers!

[Harry]

Lettuce? Swear filter I presume?

Yes indeed apologies for the pessimism...but given the appalling state of affairs in the past few years, I struggle to find optimism!

[Coast]

You know the drill by now Coast, the near continent takes it all ...

Is it because we didn't join the Euro?

but given the appalling state of affairs in the past few years, I struggle to find optimism!

Well one day, one day

[Harry]

Is it because we didn't join the Euro? Well one day, one day

I think I have finally found out the reason why....!!!!

Check out who I spotted hanging out in the Brest Peninsula!

Edited September 7, 2011 by Harry

[Robbie Garrett]

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL! ^^^^^^^^^^^^

[philglossop]

I think I have finally found out the reason why....!!!!

Check out who I spotted hanging out in the Brest Peninsula!

Oh no Harry , he's closer than France.........................

http://maps.google.co.uk/maps?hl=en&rlz=1C1_____en-GBGB448GB448&q=mutley+plymouth+map&gs_upl=5638l9422l0l9865l21l18l0l5l5l4l322l2589l2.6.5.1l14l0&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.&biw=1024&bih=673&um=1&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x486c9335210d9e01:0xdbc1ce1b4095bd54,Mutley,+Plymouth&gl=uk&ei=rERnTvrRJZG68gOhvaDXCw&sa=X&oi=geocode_result&ct=image&resnum=1&ved=0CCAQ8gEwAA

[Harry]

A town called Mutley...who'd have thought?

[Sprites]

We all blamed M.fish , it was Mutley all along along, i wonder if he can use that fan to setup convergence zones in England?.

[Arnie Pie]

Proberbly the last time lapse this year.

taken last month or so, before my camera troubles

Lots of blue skies, driving rain and even the odd anvil over South Staffordshire

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDHEaUn4lcA

[virtualsphere]

For those that haven't yet seen the new MetOffice Beta site, it looks like they're now giving free lightning data along with radar and satellite observations:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/beta/weather/observations/

Click the lightning button to view. Unfortunately it's not been an active day to judge how well it works!

[Jane Louise]

For those that haven't yet seen the new MetOffice Beta site, it looks like they're now giving free lightning data along with radar and satellite observations:

http://www.metoffice...r/observations/

Click the lightning button to view. Unfortunately it's not been an active day to judge how well it works!

Ahh, thanks for that, now we need some storms lol I still say Netweather extra radar is the best though.

[ZONE 51]

GFS 18Z-keeping watch of an active system to develop and hit the South at the weekend ahead of Katia.

now the feature for the south looks potentially active with strong winds especially on the coasts and hills with a lot of rain possible if it can develop enough and with this some negative lifted index and cape with a thunderstorm risk sweeping across with the system.

[Coast]

ESTOFEX just do this to wind us Southerners up

UKASF more likely and they now have an extended outlook for the weekend:

Areas Affected: None

Synopsis:

A very zonal flow is dominant across the United Kingdom on Thursday, as an upper low approaches from the Atlantic. Extensive cloudiness associated with high moisture content, high ThetaW and high dewpoints due to the subtropical origin of the airmass will severely limit noteworthy convection.

Discussion:

Warm fronts, at differing levels, will allow WAA to take place across the bulk of the British Isles. As a result, various areas of showery rain are likely, and with a westerly flow will be particularly enhanced over western upslopes due to orographic uplift. It is also likely that the daytime maxima (0z-0z) will be acheived in the evening hours as the air across the country becomes increasingly warm and humid.

Whilst showers are expected across northern Scotland through the morning and early afternoon, the coverage of lightning is considered too low to warrant a SLT level at this stage.

Thus, the only real interest of any convective potential is very late in the evening asssociated with the surface warm front, with the GFS indicating ELTs as low as -30C locally. The main area of interest is the English Channel and the extreme coastal counties along it, but mostly after the end of the forecast period during the early hours. A cluster of heavy showers is expected to move eastwards along the Channel with a noteworthy potential for thunder and lightning, but this potential, should it still exist, will be covered in more detail in Thursday evening's forecast.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: The surface cold front on Saturday may potentially exhibit some line convection along the back edge - further updates will be issued later in the week.

[Coast]

I'm not sure that even the later hours tonight/early hours tomorrow have that much potential, but it will be interesting to see the UKASF update later tonight.

21st OWS don't show anything:

Aviation weather is all in Scotland:

[sunny scunny]

Heavy rain here for the last hour, but the radars are only showing light rain which is strange.

[Coast]

Maybe something in the wee small hours into the rush hour tomorrow?

Lots of convective rain down here:

Interesting little feature coming up The Channel - not an import!!!

A very slight risk but worth keeping an eye on through the day for the SE dwellers!

[Coast]

Then there is Friday into Saturday.......

Forecast Skew T is encouraging:

Don't look to the other side of the Channel!

Better:

More rain!!! (and I'm supposed to be at Brighton Speed Trials)

Higher level Lase rates encouraging:

Oooow nice!

I'm quite liking this set of GFS charts for Saturday, now just watch it flush itself down the bog from here on in

[Harry]

It's unusual to get this much better nearer the time! Still it's 06z on Thursday with the best part of 36-48 hours to play for.

Then it's eyes out West for the train of atlantic depressions!

Interesting weekend coming up to say the least!