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ESTOFEX currently have no forecast for Europe (?) but UKASF have a slight risk as follows:
Quote
Forecaster: Dan
Last Updated: 22:11 Saturday, 27th August 2011
Valid: 00:00 Sunday, 28th August 2011 - 23:59 Sunday, 28th August 2011
Areas Affected:SLGT: Midlands, East Anglia, London and Kent
Synopsis:Large upper trough/low continues to sit over the northern North Sea on Sunday with upper trough axis over the British Isles, slowly rotating eastwards. Greatest convection potential exits under the base of said trough, decreasing as the base passes through highlighted areas.
Discussion:Cold mid levels will steepen lapse rates as a result of diurnal heating. A couple hundred J/kg CAPE are likely to result in quite a few scattered showers, though less widespread and heavy compared to Saturday. Given Saturday's greater coverage and intensity of showers than initially anticipated, and a similar airmass still present, a marginal SLGT threat level has been issued to highlight regions with a slim chance at any noteworthy convective potential.
It must be noted that lightning is likely to be quite isolated, if any at all. Greatest instability exists in the afternoon across East Anglia primarily. ELT's are not particularly favourable (at best -5C) but locally some colder values are possible in any deeper pockets of convection. Marginal DLS and LLS precludes severe weather. Showers will rapidly decrease in coverage after sunset.
Last Updated: 22:11 Saturday, 27th August 2011
Valid: 00:00 Sunday, 28th August 2011 - 23:59 Sunday, 28th August 2011
Areas Affected:SLGT: Midlands, East Anglia, London and Kent
Synopsis:Large upper trough/low continues to sit over the northern North Sea on Sunday with upper trough axis over the British Isles, slowly rotating eastwards. Greatest convection potential exits under the base of said trough, decreasing as the base passes through highlighted areas.
Discussion:Cold mid levels will steepen lapse rates as a result of diurnal heating. A couple hundred J/kg CAPE are likely to result in quite a few scattered showers, though less widespread and heavy compared to Saturday. Given Saturday's greater coverage and intensity of showers than initially anticipated, and a similar airmass still present, a marginal SLGT threat level has been issued to highlight regions with a slim chance at any noteworthy convective potential.
It must be noted that lightning is likely to be quite isolated, if any at all. Greatest instability exists in the afternoon across East Anglia primarily. ELT's are not particularly favourable (at best -5C) but locally some colder values are possible in any deeper pockets of convection. Marginal DLS and LLS precludes severe weather. Showers will rapidly decrease in coverage after sunset.
SkyWarn have an update in place:
Quote
SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WARNING #050
ISSUED: 2215UTC THURSDAY 25TH AUGUST 2011 (GJ)
UPDATED: 1130UTC SATURDAY 27TH AUGUST 2011 (GB/GJ)
SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:
EASTERN ENGLAND
NORTHERN ENGLAND
EASTERN SCOTLAND
NORTHERN SCOTLAND
ORKNEY AND SHETLAND
IN EFFECT UNTIL 2100UTC SUNDAY 28TH AUGUST
DEEPENING LOW WITHIN A TROPICAL AIRMASS GENERATING HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDER
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IMMINENTLY, OR OCCURRING, SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE REGIONS INDICATED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WARNING INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:
HEAVY RAIN...PERSISTENT RAIN...FLOODING...LIGHTNING...GALES...STRONG GUSTS...FUNNELS/WEAK TORNADOES
DISCUSSION:
MODEL CONFIDENCE HAS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE UKMO NAE, CREATING STRONG CONFIDENCE IN A SEVERE WEATHER RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW FORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST TRAVERSING FRANCE INTO THE SOUTHEAST OF ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. STRONG CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AND WRAP AROUND THE LOW CENTRE INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UP TO NORTHERN ENGLAND DURING FRIDAY. THE LOW MOVES DUE NORTH UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING OVER NORTHEASTERN SCOTLAND. PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS ARE WIDELY 20-30MM ACROSS THESE AREAS WITHIN RESPECTIVE 24HR TIMEFRAMES, HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS OF 40-60MM AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND ESPECIALLY THE SLOW SPEED OF THE SYSTEM NEAR THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COASTS ARE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A WARNING. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY. THIS WARNING MAY BE UPDATED.
ISSUED: 2215UTC THURSDAY 25TH AUGUST 2011 (GJ)
UPDATED: 1130UTC SATURDAY 27TH AUGUST 2011 (GB/GJ)
SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:
EASTERN ENGLAND
NORTHERN ENGLAND
EASTERN SCOTLAND
NORTHERN SCOTLAND
ORKNEY AND SHETLAND
IN EFFECT UNTIL 2100UTC SUNDAY 28TH AUGUST
DEEPENING LOW WITHIN A TROPICAL AIRMASS GENERATING HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDER
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IMMINENTLY, OR OCCURRING, SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE REGIONS INDICATED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WARNING INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:
HEAVY RAIN...PERSISTENT RAIN...FLOODING...LIGHTNING...GALES...STRONG GUSTS...FUNNELS/WEAK TORNADOES
DISCUSSION:
MODEL CONFIDENCE HAS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE UKMO NAE, CREATING STRONG CONFIDENCE IN A SEVERE WEATHER RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW FORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST TRAVERSING FRANCE INTO THE SOUTHEAST OF ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. STRONG CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AND WRAP AROUND THE LOW CENTRE INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UP TO NORTHERN ENGLAND DURING FRIDAY. THE LOW MOVES DUE NORTH UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING OVER NORTHEASTERN SCOTLAND. PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS ARE WIDELY 20-30MM ACROSS THESE AREAS WITHIN RESPECTIVE 24HR TIMEFRAMES, HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS OF 40-60MM AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND ESPECIALLY THE SLOW SPEED OF THE SYSTEM NEAR THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COASTS ARE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A WARNING. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY. THIS WARNING MAY BE UPDATED.
No CAPE or negative LI:
Some appears to get going later in the afternoon:
Strong area showing on the Scottish Borders for KO:
Lower level lapse rates up again:
Higher levels nothing special:
But here is the chart of the day, look at that tornado risk in NE Scotland!!!
