686 replies to this topic

[Coast]

Sparticle, on 25 August 2011 - 08:48 , said:

I note on your animation that it appears that the east of the LP is most active - a track more northerly would be good - clutching at straws and all that.

Could actually do with the centre of the low shifting West a bit, anybody got a tow rope?

[Harry]

This is down to a matter of 30-50 miles which, given the feature is only just developing, is NOTHING!

It will be one of two scenarios!

1. What was forecast for Monday night actually happens tonight!
2. The worst stays further East over the continent with merely moderate/heavy rain for a time.

I am deeply encouraged by the fact that the MetO haven't issued a warning! I think given the 'knife-edge' models at the moment they're hanging onto their breaches

Edited by Harry, 25 August 2011 - 09:01 .

[Lynxus]

Now you see,
I think everyones having a laugh on my behalf now.

I keep seeing these storm warning and rain warnings and yet to actually see any...

My garden is like a desert and the only rain we have had this summer is small short showers .

Bring it on!
However i fear nothing will actually happen.,

[Boar Wrinklestorm]

Harry, on 25 August 2011 - 09:00 , said:

This is down to a matter of 30-50 miles which, given the feature is only just developing, is NOTHING!

It will be one of two scenarios!

1. What was forecast for Monday night actually happens tonight!
2. The worst stays further East over the continent with merely moderate/heavy rain for a time.

I am deeply encouraged by the fact that the MetO haven't issued a warning! I think given the 'knife-edge' models at the moment they're hanging onto their breaches

Perhaps the MetO warnings for Monday were actually meant for today ... lol -> no chance.

[Coast]

Actually, I've looked out a bit further on the forecast soundings and a very small glimmer of light appears above Eastbourne later tomorrow:



Like others, I am most definitely

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[Nick F]

Coast, on 25 August 2011 - 08:46 , said:

I'm afraid I'm with you there! Looks like any storm for the SE overnight into Friday, still tracks too far East for my liking and a Kent Clipper may be all we can get excited about?

Most models have an area of very heavy rain moving NNE and clipping Kent and coastal E Anglia Friday morning, as a wave over NW France tonight deepens NEwards into a low across the S North Sea by 12z tomorrow. Unfortunately it looks like SE England will be the 'wrong' or cool side of the frontal boundary - so just heavy rain likely from the wrap around occlusion, bit like the MetO event for the SE that never was the other night.

Today, another wave along the cold front is currently pushing NE across SE England hot on the heels of the earlier wave now exiting across NE England, could be some embedded convection that may produce the odd rumble before the CF clears this afternoon. Otherwise, plenty of heavy showers and a few t-storms across Ireland and the Celtic sea looking like spreading NE across northern and western areas today.

Tomorrow, GFS builds a fair bit of CAPE across England and Wales (away from the far east) once the early cloud and rain clears the east and also CAPE across E Eire and W Scotland, so scattered storms look likely in these areas as lapse rates steepen beneath the cooling air of the upper trough above us and the sun comes out.

[Coast]

Hmmm, maybe we need to go for later tomorrow?

[Harry]

Coast, on 25 August 2011 - 09:10 , said:

Actually, I've looked out a bit further on the forecast soundings and a very small glimmer of light appears above Eastbourne later tomorrow:



Like others, I am most definitely

If some convection did initiate around Eastbourne tomorrow, then shear is looking good for perhaps something verging on severe.

[Mike Storm]

Very Heavy Rain here at mo......

[Harry]

Tonight for the SE from the MetO

After a dry start to the evening further rain will spread to most places by midnight. That will leave a wet night with some heavy and possibly thundery rain. Minimum temperature 12 °C

Intriguingly, looking at the radar it should be raining moderate to heavy here....hardly a thing! Nice updraughts maybe?

[Staffordshire]

YES! I've had some rain - finally!

[Suburban Streamer]

Had flash and rumble in nw london!

[Flash Elvis]

Suburban Streamer, on 25 August 2011 - 09:27 , said:

Had flash and rumble in nw london!

What a Fight with a Flasher

[Blizzards]

Looks like tomorrows rain will destroy most peoples chances of any thundery weather tomorrow.

[the_voodoouk]

Looks to be a developing CB on the horizon to the West of Staffordshire. Probably over the North of Shropshire/South Cheshire. It grown from nothing in about 15 mins - anyone over that way confirm if it's upto much? Definitely looks promising in our area for later as the sun gets to work!

[Liam Ellis]

Just gone and have a look outside - brilliant weather here in Cardiff, the sun is shining and the temperature has risen to 18.3C. Looking over the Bristol channel there is one huge towering cumulus and some cumulus building to the West of Cardiff.Hope we'll get some action today!

[ajpoolshark]

Blizzards, on 25 August 2011 - 09:48 , said:

Looks like tomorrows rain will destroy most peoples chances of any thundery weather tomorrow.

For once I'm going to be selfish Luke....Stuff the South-East, I'm far more interested in storm potential for us west midlanders!

[Blizzards]

ajpoolshark, on 25 August 2011 - 10:34 , said:

For once I'm going to be selfish Luke....Stuff the South-East, I'm far more interested in storm potential for us west midlanders!

So am I but it seems cloud and general rain will be in the way and not allowing convection to initiate or move towards our region.

[Coast]

ajpoolshark, on 25 August 2011 - 10:34 , said:

Stuff the South-East, I'm far more interested in storm potential for us west midlanders!

I think you have more of a chance in the next 24 hours anyway, good luck all!

[ajpoolshark]

Coast, on 25 August 2011 - 10:40 , said:

I think you have more of a chance in the next 24 hours anyway, good luck all!

It's about time Robin, I'm getting serious storm withdrawal symptoms!...lol......As Luke said, our chances tomorrow hinge on tonights developing frontal rain....I haven't checked the NMM hi-res yet, but the beebs early morning forecast suggest rainfall could hang around over East Anglia & the East Midlands, thus the cloud shield could extend over the midlands, supressing convection...hopefully not the case!

Edited by ajpoolshark, 25 August 2011 - 10:44 .