759 replies to this topic

[Hurricane Debby]

Well what a damp squib. Most disappointed but really not surprised. Whenever the BBC give a ramped up forecast you just know its not going to happen.

[Victor Meldrew]

Hurricane Debby, on 23 August 2011 - 09:15 , said:

Well what a damp squib. Most disappointed but really not surprised. Whenever the BBC/MET give a ramped up forecast you just know its not going to happen.

Fixed

You only have to remember what the met precipitation models were showing for the south east to see how badly they messed up..... AGAIN

[Miguel Hugo Roberto]

Well hardly surprisingly - eff all arrived overnight and in fact the country isn't covered in rain either. A dry and bright start here.

I think my eyes are on Thursday/Friday with that trough from the west. Some much cleaner convective weather on the way. As Matt Taylor on the BBC said last night 'slow moving thunderstorms, especially in the west'.

[loopydreamer]

lol! i was up but kind of put my head back on the chair and crashed! hubby found me there this morning!

I cant help getting over excited and hyper!

[Solar Sausage]

Harry, on 23 August 2011 - 09:00 , said:

There is definitely a question to be answered in respect of climatic patterns...it is as clear as day that the frequency of thunderstorms is lower (in SE England anyway) in the past 10 years compared to the previous 10 years. The number of night time thunderstorms is significantly lower!

Global warming, cooling, climate change....it COULD be any of those. It is MOST likely to be cyclical seasonal patterns which aren't apparent due to limited historical data....if so, then never fear! Thunderstorm rates will be back to 90s standards by the time I'm in my 40s...whoop!



Have global temperatures actually cooled? Or has the rate of warming slowed (big difference between the two)

I hear conflicting 'facts' and so am always a little unsure.

Well spotted, Harry!

Personally, I don't think that, concerning storms, much has really changed at all . Just that we are undergoing a bit of natural variation, is all. It cannot be average every year.

[loopydreamer]

Coast, on 23 August 2011 - 09:09 , said:

I'll also raise my hand at this point and say I did get a little carried away with the possibilities for this very small corner of the SE and my ramping yesterday may have given the wrong impression or aided excitement that wasn't really warranted

GFS was almost spot on and I think that maybe some, including me, were a little too eager to use the MetO and even the NMM output and then try to talk up the GFS which was only ever marginal - sorry!

Anyway, storm starvation does play funny tricks with the mind. I was once walking through a desert, with days of not having had a drink and I suddenly stumbled across a mirage......



So maybe Friday then eh?

lol! this made me laugh!!

[Wet'n'Dry]

Is this heavy rain forecast another major fail? So far just a few spits here.

[Victor Meldrew]

Wet, on 23 August 2011 - 09:35 , said:

Is this heavy rain forecast another major fail? So far just a few spits here.

Big time!

[Coast]

Wet, on 23 August 2011 - 09:35 , said:

Is this heavy rain forecast another major fail? So far just a few spits here.

Depends where you are. Eastbourne has had almost exactly what was forecast so far:

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[SteveB]

Michael Prys-Roberts, on 23 August 2011 - 09:18 , said:

Well hardly surprisingly - eff all arrived overnight and in fact the country isn't covered in rain either. A dry and bright start here.

I think my eyes are on Thursday/Friday with that trough from the west. Some much cleaner convective weather on the way. As Matt Taylor on the BBC said last night 'slow moving thunderstorms, especially in the west'.

I'm not going to hold my breath on that one either.

[SnowBear]

I think people are forgetting how notoriously difficult it is to predict how far north any thundery activity from the south will go, the English Channel has and always will be the unknown factor in any forecast.

Also, many hark on about plumes and thundery activity from the south always reached across the Channel in years gone by, selective memory I am afraid, you will always remember the events which happen as "major" you had the storms, the lightning, rain etc, but there were of course just as many "fails" as now.

It didn't happen last night, whoopee, not the end of the world, just what goes with our unpredictable at times weather, especially certain types and patterns, due to us being an island! :-)

Keeps everyone on their toes!

[Victor Meldrew]

SnowBear, on 23 August 2011 - 09:55 , said:

I think people are forgetting how notoriously difficult it is to predict how far north any thundery activity from the south will go, the English Channel has and always will be the unknown factor in any forecast.

Also, many hark on about plumes and thundery activity from the south always reached across the Channel in years gone by, selective memory I am afraid, you will always remember the events which happen as "major" you had the storms, the lightning, rain etc, but there were of course just as many "fails" as now.

It didn't happen last night, whoopee, not the end of the world, just what goes with our unpredictable at times weather, especially certain types and patterns, due to us being an island! :-)

Keeps everyone on their toes!

Victor Meldrew, on 23 August 2011 - 00:02 , said:

Heard that before though SO many times these last few years, IT'S NOT SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN TILL... and guess what

IT DOESN'T!

Victor Meldrew, on 22 August 2011 - 22:13 , said:

How can people say this?, these last few years have shown us that things have not gone to plan again and again.

[SnowMania]

Morning all!

Yeah we only got heavy rain here too, now clearing leaving cloudy conditions...

I did have a lil show last night from a now ex storm Frenchie, quite a light show out to sea.

But thats what keeps us sane here in the UK, things happen and change or develop at any point! Its just that it wasn't our time this summer and its seems we have reached a quiet point with Spannish plooms ect. But thats all caused by different happenings that we will start to understand.

But I love the British Weather, its so unpredictable which is why we are all on here and interested in this! Normally not 1 day is the same!

I do agree something has changed in the past few years in our weather, colder and more prolonged winters and cooler more cloudy summers. It will change back, but at the moment we are in a new pattern that we have to live with and investigate!

EDIT: I've also located Frenchie! She's still alive! Currently Heading smack bang for Berlin!

Edited by SnowMania, 23 August 2011 - 10:28 .

[Daveweiser]

Lmao i thought around midnight that frick all would happen storm wise here but maybe the south coast would have a good night but bam no storms. I was expecting heavy rain from the high cloud tops from france but oh look drizzle. The rain has been so "heavy and intense" for the last Hour that my poor little rain meter has collected an awesome 1.6mm..... wth is that my garden has been screaming for water for months

Edited by Daveweiser, 23 August 2011 - 10:23 .

[Lynxus]

For some reason I thought we were due to be drenched in flooding and thunder today..

Looks dry all day to me?

Then again, Its been dry all summer.
I cant think of a single day this summer where I havent needed to water the plants..
Garden has cracks that are ~2inches wide!

[Robbie Garrett]

Well that was interesting last night, got up at regular intervals and noticed heavy rain, so kept going back to bed.

What a dissapointment.

Sprites, on 23 August 2011 - 07:31 , said:

LOL , in France they named it Epic Display.

Looooooool!

[Lauren]

A big disappointment that was, but I was expecting it.

It has been raining since the early hours but only 3mm in my rain gauge. Strange.

[Coast]

Anything other than discussion about yesterday or today's convective possibilities (or not!!) are back in the general thread here:

http://forum.netweat...-and-forecasts/

[Supacell]

Well I am gradually getting over my shear upset at last night. Just fimished work at 5pm having been there since 9am and all this after spending all last night driving and getting back around 7am. If anyone should be gutted at last nights bustola it is I.

I just wonder, am I a truly dedicated storm chaser to take such a gamble or just plain stupid?

Edited by Supacell, 23 August 2011 - 18:39 .

[Phil UK]

I think, Supacell. Not stupid but with GFS, METO,ECM and ESTOFEX having differing points of view as to how last night/early hours of today would pan out. Even I would be a doubting Thomas as to whether stay up and watch, go storm chasing, OR give up the ghost altogether and just go to bed.

All too often since 2008, we've seen the sort of plumes which years before would have seen hours of heavy rain and embedded MCS thunderstorm activity over much of the UK from a slow moving occlusion from the Bay of Biscay now seems pretty much non-existent, or takes an irregular track which of this year alone seems to favour NE France, Belgium and Germany.

Why this is, I don't know? But my more memorable set ups were July 1987, July 1989, August 1991, September 1992, <--- The latter not strictly a Spanish plume but inland dirunal storms widely developed overnight from a south west - north east trajectory. July 1994, August 1995.

I'm just sorry for those who in the great expectancy areas saw little, if anything of the MetO 'prediction' some 20-odd hours ago, I think anywhere from Weymouth, Solihull up to Lincolnshire saw little rain at all, yet warnings in place but like Harry, and paraphrasing slightly said... "All warning for this, but none for Bournemouth, Dorset and Poole last week".

An irony for that seeing the Dolphin shopping centre closed because of flooding. Now that was serious Dolphin weather.

Phil.