759 replies to this topic

[mullender83]

SteveB, on 22 August 2011 - 09:40 , said:

I doubt we will even see that much rain, looks like we are on the edge of the main band as it pushes up from the south.

I have yet to see a thunder storm this year and it has been 3 years since one so I am hopeful that somerset may get a storm.

[chionomaniac]

Harry, on 22 August 2011 - 09:35 , said:

My thoughts exactly, the further that sector of convective air moves North, the greater the risk for more people!

Just keep your eyes on the centre of the Low approaching the BoB...if that stays moving due North (or there abouts) then it looks a lot better! If it starts veering NE then so too will our storm risks

I notice Estofex still quiet.......that's the second time this year a plume type system involving the UK has been very late...I think on one occasion this year they didnt post a forecast at all which was most disappointing....

I'll have a punt at how I think it will look (emphasis - this is my attempt using the estofex map style...I've removed all reference to estofex as this is not their forecast)

Part of me is curious as to whether they may even issue the first level 3 of the year across C/N France...there does seem to be fair to decent risk of supercells here given the presence of sheer, very high CAPE/LI values, dry air intrusion around the low assisting chance of explosive convection and likely v high amounts of rainfall - has to be a high risk of large hail over France also.....I'm probably way off the beat but you never know.

Looks a very reasonable forecast for severe weather Harry. Already some significant storms in NW France and I wouldn't be surprised to see large hail there.

[Chris K]

Looks like the far SE could be hit by that mass that is in France at the moment if it keeps its current path? You could get a double dose of storms

Is a shame the Low seems to be taking a slight NE path than N so i'll probably be on the back edge with just rain tonight. Still hoping though for a decent storm..

[Victor Meldrew]

aaron, on 22 August 2011 - 09:26 , said:

Indeed. Looks like you in the South East will once again steal the storms, leaving the rest of us bone dry

wow one small storm all year so far and even that was poor, yeh sure... The places that have had most big storms so far seem to be up towards the north east!

So far for the last three years it's been very poor

[snowgirlkent]

Bugganuts, on 22 August 2011 - 10:00 , said:

Looks like the far SE could be hit by that mass that is in France at the moment if it keeps its current path? You could get a double dose of storms

Is it looking likely that the mass tracking this way will keep it's course or veer east when it hits the Channel? We made up a picnic to go out with while it was warm and sunny first thing and then I looked at the radar! Normally I'm hopping about willing any possible storms to come this way but just this one time that i don't and it looks like being a direct hit - typical!

[Aaron]

Harry, on 22 August 2011 - 09:33 , said:

Now you listen 'ere....I ain't add a propaa storm since abaat two faasand and nine innit (exc 28th June this year)....don't start this daan saaf gettin propaa storms raabbish

If they come off I'll be over the moon! But we've had so much disappointment in the last few years and in particular 2010!

This will be, again if it comes off, the first proper night time plume storm since June 2010 and even that was a pretty significant disappointment

Re Victor Meldrew's post, that 0400 MetO Invent rainfall run does look markedly like an MCS

Well, the south east has had a lot more storms than here, of course a lot of them localised, but I remember in late June this year when the south/east got some proper torrential downpours, and a friend in Hampshire has told me he reported over 100 mm in June and oover 70 mm in July, nothing of the sort here!

[EML Network]

The Storms over NW France wont hit the UK today, they're moving NE , will likely have a northern extent of the Channel, and to be honest I can't see anything for tonight/tomorrow either, maybe the very tip of SE England might catch a few isolated strikes, but it's looking like another near miss

[Coast]

Victor Meldrew, on 22 August 2011 - 09:15 , said:

4am!

Yep! Everything I've looked at this morning in both threads (http://forum.netweat...on-and-reports/ ) points to a start time after midnight, with the sweet spot (such as it currently is) around 3 to 4 am.

[The watcher]

snowgirlkent, on 22 August 2011 - 10:22 , said:

Is it looking likely that the mass tracking this way will keep it's course or veer east when it hits the Channel? We made up a picnic to go out with while it was warm and sunny first thing and then I looked at the radar! Normally I'm hopping about willing any possible storms to come this way but just this one time that i don't and it looks like being a direct hit - typical!

Sods law that, I bet you normally check radar and forecasts before making a picnic too lol.

[Victor Meldrew]

aaron, on 22 August 2011 - 10:29 , said:

Well, the south east has had a lot more storms than here, of course a lot of them localised, but I remember in late June this year when the south/east got some proper torrential downpours, and a friend in Hampshire has told me he reported over 100 mm in June and oover 70 mm in July, nothing of the sort here!

Hampshire is in the south not south east and you are mentioning the entire south east corner just for leeds... A VAST majority of the south east has had the odd storm and very weak ones too!, everything so far has stayed offshore or towards the north east

[Coast]

Harry, on 22 August 2011 - 09:48 , said:

GRRRR!!!! Those charts posted by Coast earlier have updated and appear to show the stuff reaching slightly further north, but the highest storm risk shunted east!!!!

OK, sorry for that. I've updated the links (they were hot-links not separate uploads) and they are now showing the time at the points of interest but with the info from the 06Z run that superseded the run I linked - if you get what I mean.

It looks to be still on!!!!

Supacell, on 22 August 2011 - 10:43 , said:

It’s never easy is it in this country.

No, especially as most of what we are relying on here in the SE corner is our French cousins' throw-offs!!!

[gpspete]

storm over northern france the coloured areas are convective areas defined by temperature and cloud hight

[Chris K]

Victor Meldrew, on 22 August 2011 - 10:56 , said:

Hampshire is in the south not south east and you are mentioning the entire south east corner just for leeds... A VAST majority of the south east has had the odd storm and very weak ones too!, everything so far has stayed offshore or towards the north east

Well tonight maybe your lucky night BBC weather really focusing on "intense thunderstorms likely for the SE in the early hours". Wish I could see it but have to stay in Bristol tonight/tomorrow. Its increasingly looking like my area wont get anything electrical, but I will be keeping a close eye on the radar/sat images nonetheless haha.

[cobbettp]

Cloud increasing now on south coast here, maybe some showers this evening

[Coast]

Bugganuts, on 22 August 2011 - 11:02 , said:

Well tonight maybe your lucky night BBC weather really focusing on "intense thunderstorms likely for the SE in the early hours".

I'm going to be a bit blurry eyed tomorrow morning!

[camiscool]

will that storm in france hit us?

[Chris K]

NOOO the met office have removed the warnings for the SW (at least flooding here is less likely). This looks like its going to be a south-eastern affair!! Boring rain it is for me then.

[Coast]

camiscool, on 22 August 2011 - 11:07 , said:

will that storm in france hit us?

I'm reasonably sure that won't happen. I'm also mostly confident that any convective fun starts after dark

[Victor Meldrew]

Bugganuts, on 22 August 2011 - 11:02 , said:

Well tonight maybe your lucky night BBC weather really focusing on "intense thunderstorms likely for the SE in the early hours". Wish I could see it but have to stay in Bristol tonight/tomorrow. Its increasingly looking like my area wont get anything electrical, but I will be keeping a close eye on the radar/sat images nonetheless haha.

Heard that before

I do not belieeeeve it

[Harry]

This is the updated text for SE England and EA for the early hours of the morning (from the MetO)

Outbreaks of heavy rain are expected to spread into southern counties of England on Monday evening, turning locally heavy and thundery over parts of the SE half of England during early Tuesday morning. Whilst many parts will see relatively modest rainfall amounts, the public should be aware that surface water flooding and frequent lightning is possible locally

Edited by Harry, 22 August 2011 - 11:11 .