102 replies to this topic

[Chris K]

Jane Louise, on 20 August 2011 - 14:35 , said:

From UKWW: fingers Xed

Edited the title of the thread to include today, as it's all kind of part of the same original synoptic set-up.
On the back side of the ENE advancing moisture/thermal plume, some thunderstorms have developed as an upper trough approaches, to the west of Cornwall. These look like move NE through the afternoon and evening, perhaps bringing some action to parts of Wales, the Midlands, and perhaps parts of N England. The trough will cross areas further south overnight, and some instability is noted. Some models have *some* precip overnight from time to time, so it's possible that a few showers/isol thunderstorms will cross central, southern, and south-eastern parts overnight.
The air advecting into southern parts overnight is even more warm/moist, but I think the fact that the upper trough is just skirting this area is precluding a more widespread outbreak of thunderstorms - might be one to keep and eye on through the evening though!
-----
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Paul Knightley
http://ukstormchaser.blogspot.com/
Rain Today?
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*All views expressed are my own, and not those of my employer*

http://www.ukweather...id=44454#M64702

Could this finally mean we get something today? At the moment its path is too far west of me, but as it moves slowly eastwards this evening we might see something?

Cornwall looks like its about to get something decent hitting its shores soon!

[Norfolk Sheep]

tinybill, on 20 August 2011 - 14:34 , said:

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ looks like its going south out from norwich heavy rain now in ipswich

Good, it can hold off til 6pm as far as I'm concerned

[Jane Louise]

Bugganuts, on 20 August 2011 - 14:38 , said:

Could this finally mean we get something today? At the moment its path is too far west of me, but as it moves slowly eastwards this evening we might see something?

Cornwall looks like its about to get something decent hitting its shores soon!

I do hope so Bugganauts. It's about time. Plenty of radar watching me thinks Good luck

But as usual, the MO thinks Not!!!

Headline:

Largely dry with only a few, mainly light showers.
This Evening and Tonight:
A few scattered showers at first this evening but many places dry with some late sunshine. Largely dry overnight with some clear spells. Cloudier with a chance of a little light rain in Devon and Cornwall toward dawn. Minimum temperature 13 °C.
http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

[Erbyskerby]

Some amazing cloud formations here! Will try and upload some pics when my niece has finished playing cbeebies!!!

[gottolovethisweather]

Hello,

Well further to my post 18 earlier today, the surface low initially off Portugal has now reinvigorated itself and it's currently heading into the BoB area as shown by my attachments. It is currently very active and imho, WILL continue to develop yet further.
The encircled action area is heading on a northwards or slightly NNE projectory, which in my opinion, is precisly where we need it, in order to effect the masses OVERNIGHT.



The key problem I think we have is the current daytime troughs etc. and how they will interact with this feature if it gets to our shores. This point, I will leave to others more knowledgeable.

All things being well there has been and will continue to be some storm action for some today and into the overnight.

I'm personally hoping for the later period to come into play.

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited by gottolovethisweather, 20 August 2011 - 15:38 .

[Lauren]

Do I water the garden today or do we think it will rain later?

[Jane Louise]

Lauren, on 20 August 2011 - 15:30 , said:

Do I water the garden today or do we think it will rain later?

Water it ,it's bound to rain then Lol

[Coast]

Lauren, on 20 August 2011 - 15:30 , said:

Do I water the garden today or do we think it will rain later?

What, do you think this is a weather forum?

gottolovethisweather, on 20 August 2011 - 15:24 , said:

Well further to my post 18 earlier today, the surface low initially off Portugal has now reinvigorated itself and it's currently heading into the BoB area as shown by my attachments. It is currently very active and imho, WILL continue to develop yet further.

Battle of Britain?

[Raidan]

Heart just skipped a beat! Haven't looked at any radars for a few hours and thought id check up on the storm situation,I cant believe it! that area of rain to the west is producing sferics and actually looks like we could see something today,i really hope so fingers crossed,Good luck Bugganuts,Jane and of course everyone else

[Coast]

staplehurst, on 20 August 2011 - 12:04 , said:

well in this sort of setup, you can get storms randomly developing in the eastern Chanel, primarily due to the high SSTs. I still think this is a possibility tonight, it happened a couple of years ago I remember so I am still optimistic for some overseas stuff tonight.

OK, I'm hearing that and to show what they are, my local sea temp is 18.7 DgC currently

http://www.channelco...harts/?chart=77

Been a corking hot and clear Summer day here in Eastbourne and of particular interest to me is the dewpoint currently at 14.5 DgC which is at least helpful.

At least someone in the South West has had a bit of action, this is also more than I expected



If it's going to happen, it's going to be between 0300hrs and 0600 hrs according to GFS 12z run:



But as a word of caution, GFS is on it'sown with this Northerly aspect of the French storms........

[Harry]

gottolovethisweather, on 20 August 2011 - 15:24 , said:

Hello,

Well further to my post 18 earlier today, the surface low initially off Portugal has now reinvigorated itself and it's currently heading into the BoB area as shown by my attachments. It is currently very active and imho, WILL continue to develop yet further.
The encircled action area is heading on a northwards or slightly NNE projectory, which in my opinion, is precisly where we need it, in order to effect the masses OVERNIGHT.

tonight's potential area of interest.gif tonight's potential area of interest2.gif

The key problem I think we have is the current daytime troughs etc. and how they will interact with this feature if it gets to our shores. This point, I will leave to others more knowledgeable.

All things being well there has been and will continue to be some storm action for some today and into the overnight.

I'm personally hoping for the later period to come into play.

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

I love your optimism, but there is simply far too much ENE push between the south coast of England and France...if you run the satellite picture (www.yr.no is has a great satellite animation) you can see everything just north of the BoB is shunted rapidly ENE...if we do see anything tonight I'd be amazed to be honest...I don't think I've ever felt so pessimistic

12z emerging looks like the devil's work but for bit of thundery rain on the commute to work Tuesday morning!

[Daveweiser]

Today started warm and sunny but turned grey around lunchtime with some rain, Now the sun is back out its feeling humid but i think im in the wronge place for anything tonight so i hope it happens for someone tonight!

[gottolovethisweather]

Harry, on 20 August 2011 - 16:04 , said:

I love your optimism, but there is simply far too much ENE push between the south coast of England and France...

Thanks Harry,

Yes, I'm an optimistic type of guy, sometimes you have to be.
Re: the push ENE, why would this and why should this be? upper steering winds, maybe?

The area of interest I previously encircled in another post (further south from the main mass) continues to still head in a northwards fashion IMO. Furthermore it's certainly possible, the models and/or other sources would have SO FAR failed to pick up on this thundery mass, so I await updates and that's why I (possibly foolishly) remain hopeful.

I reckon I might get some beers and ciders in for a all night radar watching session and be done with it, a WIN-WIN situation.

Here's hoping for some more action.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited by gottolovethisweather, 20 August 2011 - 16:43 .

[Chris K]

Raidan, on 20 August 2011 - 15:56 , said:

Heart just skipped a beat! Haven't looked at any radars for a few hours and thought id check up on the storm situation,I cant believe it! that area of rain to the west is producing sferics and actually looks like we could see something today,i really hope so fingers crossed,Good luck Bugganuts,Jane and of course everyone else

I don't want to give up yet, but it looks like its losing intensity as it spreads along the Bristol Channel Typical! It'll probably re-intensify as it heads NE-wards...but not until it drizzles on Bristol first haha...

[Erbyskerby]

This afternoon's sky over my house (hope this works)

http://imageshack.us.../p1020878z.jpg/
http://imageshack.us.../p1020876n.jpg/
http://imageshack.us.../p1020873a.jpg/
http://imageshack.us.../p1020858r.jpg/
http://imageshack.us.../p1020857x.jpg/
http://imageshack.us.../p1020850h.jpg/
http://imageshack.us...p1020879ak.jpg/
http://imageshack.us.../p1020846y.jpg/

Edited by Erbyskerby, 20 August 2011 - 16:41 .

[gottolovethisweather]

Bugganuts, on 20 August 2011 - 16:28 , said:

I don't want to give up yet, but it looks like its losing intensity as it spreads along the Bristol Channel Typical! It'll probably re-intensify as it heads NE-wards...but not until it drizzles on Bristol first haha...

Sorry Bugganuts, but yes, let it slip away northwards now and then we can LET THE FRENCH TROOPS invade the uk. Well, that's the idea.

The cards are being dealt down south, it's just a case of whether the French just send us their jokers or an ACE or two.

Yours Optimistically

gottolovethisweather

Edit: no alcohol being consumed just yet!

Erbyskerby, on 20 August 2011 - 16:30 , said:

This afternoon's sky over my house (hope this works)

Nice one, almost mammatus like!

Confirmed thunder heard earlier by parents near Porthcothan too.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited by gottolovethisweather, 20 August 2011 - 16:45 .

[Chris K]

gottolovethisweather, on 20 August 2011 - 16:36 , said:

Sorry Bugganuts, but yes, let it slip away northwards now and then we can LET THE FRENCH TROOPS invade the uk.

Well, that's the idea. The cards are being dealt down south but will the French just send us their jokers or an ACE or two.

Yours Optimistically

gottolovethisweather

Edit: no alcohol being consumed just yet!

I'd happily sacrifice the showers to the west to allow the French stuff to make its way northwards.....but it doesn't look like itll reach me if it did, more like just the south east

[Callie]

Coast, on 20 August 2011 - 15:58 , said:

OK, I'm hearing that and to show what they are, my local sea temp is 18.7 DgC currently

Been a corking hot and clear Summer day here in Eastbourne

I must agree the sky has been so clear this afternoon and such a vivid blue

[Liam Ellis]

Gone all warm and humid here in Cardiff city centre - sky looking very turbulenced. One or two heavy raindrops now and again.

[Chris K]

The cloud above me now is soo dark (probably partly to do with approaching sunset in the next hour, as well as being the leftovers from the stuff off the coast of Cornwall earlier) but anyway its quiet.. No rain or anything.

Quiet day tomorrow by the looks of it to. Possibly an interesting week for some (hopefully me to ) during next week from Monday night onwards? Fingers crossed! (whilst secretly knowing what will happen)

Edited by Bugganuts, 20 August 2011 - 18:43 .