0
This topic is locked
ESTOFEX have the SE covered in their forecast for the French/Belgian stuff:
Quote
Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 18 Aug 2011 06:00 to Fri 19 Aug 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 17 Aug 2011 21:49
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 2 was issued for portions of France and south-western Germany mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail.
A level 1 was issued for portions of Spain, southern Portugal, France, the Alpine region, Germany, and the Benelux countries mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail.
SYNOPSIS
To the north of a broad ridge over the Mediterranean, a strong westerly flow affects portions of Europe in the wake of a short-wave trough stretching from Scandinavia to western Russia. Another short-wave trough will migrate into Central Europe during the period. This will be associated with the advection of warm and unstable air into southern Germany.
Quote
Forecaster: Dan
Last Updated: 21:12 Wednesday, 17th August 2011
Valid: 00:00 Thursday, 18th August 2011 - 23:59 Thursday, 18th August 2011
Areas Affected:
SLGT: E + NE Scotland, Borders, NE England
Synopsis:
A weak upper ridge migrates eastwards to be replaced by a weak, yet rapidly-intensifying, upper trough. A warm and humid airmass with high dewpoints and ThetaW is advected across SE England behind a warm front, with a broad frontal zone.
Discussion:
Despite a warm and humid airmass being present across SE England, moderate northeasterly winds and excessive cloud cover are likely to inhibit 2m temperatures from rising above 20/21C. Along the frontal zone itself, a wave is forecast to move NEwards across CS Eng/S + E Mids/E Anglia during the forecast period, providing an intensification of rain. Some appreciable falls are likely, in the range of 10-15mm, but locally up to 40mm is possible. Given the fact that this will be falling over many hours, rather than in a short period of time, this precludes any higher threat level. Such precipitation is not expected to produce any lightning although an embedded cell cannot be completely ruled out given this type of setup.
Particular interest is given to NE Scotland southwards into NE England. A couple hundred J/kg CAPE coupled with quite a pronounced NNE-SSE convergence zone will provide the main focus for any stronger convection. A line of heavy showers is expected to develop from early afternoon onwards, and with ELT's as low as -25C, lightning is expected in stronger cells. Slack and variable surface winds will ensure such line will be slow moving, if not quasi-stationary in nature, and could give some locally high rainfall totals (potentially in excess of 40mm very locally). Under such conditions, some minor flooding is possible although exact locations are difficult to pinpoint. Meagre DLS and LLS precludes the tornado risk, although a CZ-type funnel is not out of the question.
Showers are expected to persist well into the night, probably not showing any significant signs of decay until around or after the very end of this forecast period.
A few showers are also expected across Ireland and Northern Ireland, although slightly higher geopotential heights here will limit the risk of any lightning and consequently such convection will be shallower in nature.
Looks like some convective cloud with that rain:
Small amounts of CAPE in Scotland midday:
Look where it's at its best though later:
I think this one is confined to France and maybe Scotland:
Interestingly, Kaye Forster on the BBC South East today weather at 6.30 had the rain coming into the Northern areas of Hants, Sussex and Kent later, with the dry band along the Southern coast? I'll forgive her this morning as she did do her hair nicely (and had dried it after getting out of the shower for once!!!)
