471 replies to this topic

[DeepSnow]

Had a lot of heavy showers thismorning, 13.5mm so far! Looks like it could be a good day for South West England and South Wales?

What time could be expect any thundery activity to start?

[Chris K]

SteveB, on 07 August 2011 - 10:22 , said:

For the first time today the showers are loosing their intensity as the move up the Bristol channel.

Hopefully when the predicted cape/li values increase this afternoon it might help keep its intensity rather than just peter out into nothing by the time it reaches here..

Still keeping a close eye on the mass of cloud approaching us at the front edge of the low pressure centre. Some lightning is still being picked up in that.

[SteveB]

Bugganuts, on 07 August 2011 - 10:26 , said:

Hopefully when the predicted cape/li values increase this afternoon it might help keep its intensity rather than just peter out into nothing by the time it reaches here..

Still keeping a close eye on the mass of cloud approaching us at the front edge of the low pressure centre. Some lightning is still being picked up in that.

It would be nice if someone could let us know if its still all going to plan, Really could do with seeing some storms later.

[Staffordshire]

Keithey joe has posted this over at Met monkey (cheif forecaster) A complex area of low pressure will lead to enhanced cooling in the upper levels and combined with some surface heating today should be enough to produce instability in the region of 300-600j/kg of CAPE.  Heavy showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop today, almost anywhere across the highlighted areas.  Focus will be towards the W as a developing short-wave within the baroclinic zone is forecast to continue to develop and move towards SW England, Devon, Cornwall and parts of Somesert/Dorset and the West Country later this afternoon and evening.  This feature will bring about increase levels of PVA and a VORTMAX is forecast to translate close to Weymouth towards evening time.  Due to the short-wave advancement and sufficient energy within the flow, a few thunderstorms are confidently forecast in SW England thus a MODERATE threat has been assigned.  Another focus area where NAE, ECM and GFS guidance blends consistency well with strong PVA placement is immediately around Cheshire/NW Midlands region/Staffordshire - thus a 25% SLIGHT risk has been assigned.  Wind shear will not be mentioned in this analysis because it is too low to suggest any severe threat.  Storms will be locally very intense and torrential however with a risk of hail, locally frequent lightning is a possibility due to low EL below -30, however SFC convergence will not be in place - hence the more widespread 25% risk not being extended beyond areas of strongest PVA.  Main threat will be very gusty winds, hail and localised flash flooding.
http://postimage.org/image/2hksgjrgk/

[Phelpsy]

yep im hoping we get something today as it is well overdue. Just looks messy at the mo though.

[Blizzards]

Cloudy with boring light rain here. No thundery weather expected for the Midlands now thanks to a very slow moving occlusion over us. Yet another day of potential down the drain!

Move out of the way occlusion!

Edited by Blizzards, 07 August 2011 - 10:58 .

[Lauren]

I'm spending late afternoon in North London.

It really could go either way today.

[Supacell]

I mentioned this potential across Cheshire and into the NW Midlands in my post earlier. There has been a lot of talk regarding storms in the south but I can see something in the area I, and now met monkey, have indicated also. Would be very interested to know peoples thoughts before I decide to invade more southern territories. Although I may now have left this too late!

Incidentally GFS precip charts indicate something in this area too.

[Chris K]

So far this morning I have had plenty of heavy showers. Nothing exciting though yet. Problem is as said already, it seems to lose its 'kick' once it starts travelling up the Bristol Channel. Is there an obvious reason for this that I'm missing? Happens all the time whenever there are these kind of set ups from the SW.

Edited by Bugganuts, 07 August 2011 - 11:00 .

[Staffordshire]

Will the showers suddenly pep ip when they hit this area then?

Supacell, on 07 August 2011 - 10:58 , said:

I mentioned this potential across Cheshire and into the NW Midlands in my post earlier. There has been a lot of talk regarding storms in the south but I can see something in the area I, and now met monkey, have indicated also. Would be very interested to know peoples thoughts before I decide to invade more southern territories. Although I may now have left this too late!

Incidentally GFS precip charts indicate something in this area too.

[Miguel Hugo Roberto]

Beginning to lose the cruddy low cloud now between showers. Blue sky is appearing to the southwest with some impressive Cbs appearing. Plenty of sferics about to the southwest too so fingers crossed.

[Supacell]

Staffordshire said:

Will the showers suddenly pep ip when they hit this area then?

In short I don't know. We need the opinion of somebody who does.

Just rain, rain and more rain here today. Not expecting anything thundery this far north though.

[Staffordshire]

Supacell, on 07 August 2011 - 11:36 , said:

In short I don't know. We need the opinion of somebody who does.

Just rain, rain and more rain here today. Not expecting anything thundery this far north though.

Okay, i won't get my hopes up because as always I get let down. Just really hope Jane Louisr gets something

[Supacell]

I think anywhere in Nick's forecast could see a storm with cloud tops as low as -40c so lightning and hail if they can develop.

[Lynxus]

Grr storm chance vanishing

Forecasts have changed to light showers.

[Harry]

Convection increasing here. Nice downpour moving past with fairly neat, v dark base and brilliant White anvil

[Raidan]

After heavy rain through the night and this morning the sun has come out and there is blue sky,Meteox radar has my attention at the moment as showing sferics out to the west within the rain,Hopefully it wont die out before it reaches here and produce a storm,Not holding my breath but still something to keep a eye on.

[sunny scunny]

Quite a lot of convection around now, but the showers are just to my north and south.

[Chris K]

It will be interesting to see if that bigger mass of rain approaching cornwall will develop as it hits land, as on sat24 lightning has been detected within that now and again. Showers also breaking out in Devon also on radar with lightning detected? Things seem to be developing but its looking messy at the moment.

Here the sun is out with clouds developing nicely. Gives a bit of a chance for some surface heating to get going I guess.

[IanR]

not expecting anything thundery here apart from drizzly showers, we are the no- mans land of exciting weather