570 replies to this topic

[lewisosd]

1200max, on 02 August 2011 - 22:23 , said:

Must remember that tommorrow is bin day and that not all rumbling sounds will be thunder!!!!!!!!

haha lol! Same ere! Bins will be coming in tomorrow!

[Paul Sherman]

Looking great for the Usual Suspects tomorrow. Lolz

So thats Just West of London around the M4 Area, then a SW-NE Line from North of London (UHI) And running up through North West Essex around the M11 Corridoor to the Norwich Area, My Risk box would be from NW Surrey to Norwich and the Western Extent probably around the Swindon area up towards Oxford and onto the East Midlands and onto Lincs.

Places South East of London might not be favoured by this and most probably the Eastern Thames Corridoor towards SE Essex will probably miss out also.

Much like today really.

Enjoy

[CreweCold]

snow raven, on 02 August 2011 - 21:46 , said:

.

If you can't say anything that will bring storms to Crewe, don't say anything at all

[Miguel Hugo Roberto]

Bugganuts, on 02 August 2011 - 22:11 , said:

Although looking past tomorrow, its a shame the mass of precipitation predicted by the BBC for the W/SW of England on Thurs morn isnt expected to be anything electrical. However, by the tone of the local forecast, we could be getting an impressive amount of rain!

Yet only 3mm of rain predicted by N-W. We will have to see.

[ElectricSnowStorm]

Saw those cells build up tuesday evening although missed here, they did not quite make the height but looked great.

So i look foward to the next chance and i think that will be more widespread, and i like the post from Paul S! i could be just in there or at least il see them track by!

[Blizzards]

18z NMM good for the West Midlands for most of the day until evening when the risk is reserved for the East but nice to see most of the models pushing the risk back West a bit tonight that involves more within the risk zone. All to play for tomorrow. Lincolnshire down to Cambridgeshire is the place to be tomorrow I think.

[ElectricSnowStorm]

Taking another look at the charts this is GFS 18z - i dont expect much change on the next run.


A hot and humid day to come in East Angia and the South East, with other areas very warm for most.

it is likely to feel hotter than tuesday in some places.

the storms developing in Central and Eastern and Se England set of by the hot humid airmass and convergence.

some thunderstorms becoming intense and with areas at risk of flash flooding.

GFS-18z

-CAPE-3pm
-Lifted index-12pm
-CAPE and Lifted index at 6pm
-Theta-W-850hpa-3pm-GFS
-Theta-850hpa-3pm-NAE
-surface wind-convergence line(marked)3pm
-surface wind-same chart as above(un-marked)3pm
-covergence line-GFS - 3pm(marked yellow line)
-surface wind-NAE - 3pm(circled area of interest)
-convective cloud and soaring index-3pm-GFS
-surface temperatures - NAE at 3pm

[Aaron]

Wow, today could be my lucky day, all those charts put me in a good position for once this year! (don't want to jinx it, though)

[Coast]

Here we go then. UKASF seems to have been covered earlier in the thread so here's ESTOFEX's take on today:

Quote

Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 03 Aug 2011 06:00 to Thu 04 Aug 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 02 Aug 2011 21:36
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 1 was issued for Northern Italy and surroundings mainly for large hail, marginally severe wind gusts and to the lesser extent for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

At midlevels of troposphere, a filling trough is forecast to move across Western Europe, deamplifying and with weakening flow at its forward flank. The trough is a part of a large cyclonic vortex over Atlantic, which remains stagnant and centered to the southwest of Iceland. East of the trough a ridge will stretch from the Mediterranean, across parts of Central Europe to Scandinavia. On its forward flank a cut-off low, centered over Belarus around noon, will move to the southeast.

The best conditions for thundestorms will be observed to the east of a deformed surface frontal boundary, stretching across Western and Southwestern Europe on the forward flank of the trough. Even though large portions of Germany and France should see scattered thunderstorms during the day, severe threat should stay low or only marginal due to the unfavorable vertical wind profiles and unimpressive CAPE values. The best thermodynamic conditions will be present across the western Mediterranean, but due to the high CIN values, initiation is very unlikely.

Not much for us and very little for NW France and Benelux which I am surprised about. Hey ho, what do the other sources show?

Hmmmm 21st OWS not covering us today but hey do have the Dutch/Belgium/German storms.......



Their Met Office interpretation has that far East Anglia patch:



Aviation report has the France/Benelux thing going on, but not us



The KO index has the Northern East Anglia 'blob' and Benelux, so backs up that thought a little:



Likewise the soaring index:



Nice lump of CAPE over the EA region and something down in the SE corner too!



Start with a little bit of shear:



Throw in the parcel layer depth:



Add a pinch of convective rain:



A teaspoon of LCL:



Not too much on the lapse rates though ( ) :





Pop it in the oven on a high setting and head towards Kings Lynn around tea time!!!!

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[Nick F]

If I were to chase today, I'd probably pick the M11 north through towards Cambs, looking quite good atm for storm development across western East Anglia Lincs area. Storms should be fairly slow-moving and forming along wind-convergence/sea breeze front that is likely to develop inland across eastern England this afternoon. Given weak winds aloft and convergence - potentialfor some funnel sightings. 00z Herstmonceux ascent shows PWAT (precipitable water) value of 30mm - which is rather high - so some very heavy localised rainfall likely from storms with risk of flash flooding.

Netweather storm forecast for today: http://www.netweathe...onvective;sess=

[Blizzards]

As expected i think the Met Office had this one wrong yesterday evening. Im expecting a dry and hot day here. Same set up as yesterday pretty much.

[Supacell]

Nick F, on 03 August 2011 - 06:59 , said:

If I were to chase today, I'd probably pick the M11 north through towards Cambs, looking quite good atm for storm development across western East Anglia Lincs area. Storms should be fairly slow-moving and forming along wind-convergence/sea breeze front that is likely to develop inland across eastern England this afternoon. Given weak winds aloft and convergence - potentialfor some funnel sightings. 00z Herstmonceux ascent shows PWAT (precipitable water) value of 30mm - which is rather high - so some very heavy localised rainfall likely from storms with risk of flash flooding.

Netweather storm forecast for today: http://www.netweathe...onvective;sess=

That is where I will be heading Nick, although coming from the north I would probably pick the northern part of that prediction. I am planning on hanging around South Lincs (A1 area) so that I have easy access north or south.

Problem is, I am unable to get there until around 4pm. What time looks to be best? Will I be too late and miss it?

[Coast]

Supacell, on 03 August 2011 - 07:46 , said:

Problem is, I am unable to get there until around 4pm. What time looks to be best? Will I be too late and miss it?

Timing should be about right. If you have internet access 'on the go', then check in here to see if anything has popped up further to the South and West. I expect the action to peak around 6 to 7ish

[Supacell]

Coast, on 03 August 2011 - 07:49 , said:

Timing should be about right. If you have internet access 'on the go', then check in here to see if anything has popped up further to the South and West. I expect the action to peak around 6 to 7ish

Thanks Coast.

I have a mobile phone so i can read reports on here, but no access to radar. Should be well placed in the risk area by 6/7pm so fingers crossed.

[bobbydog]

Coast, on 03 August 2011 - 07:49 , said:

Timing should be about right. If you have internet access 'on the go', then check in here to see if anything has popped up further to the South and West. I expect the action to peak around 6 to 7ish

what do you think the chances are for our area?

[Chris K]

If the Met Office forecast miraculously stays the same for SW England for Sunday I am loving it.

[Coast]

bobbydog, on 03 August 2011 - 07:53 , said:

what do you think the chances are for our area?

I'm going to say slim I'm afraid. There is a hint of something later. but not all those ingredients come together for us at the same time. 12z Herstmonceux sounding will be the tell-tale, but be prepared to watch our neighbours to the North East and in France / Benelux get the light and sound show.

Current (overnight) sounding has nothing inspiring:

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[Wivenswold]

Got very excited there. Big boom to the south. Then I remembered that the MOD often 'dispose' of bombs on Foulness Island during the week.

[bobbydog]

Coast, on 03 August 2011 - 07:58 , said:

I'm going to say slim I'm afraid. There is a hint of something later. but not all those ingredients come together for us at the same time. 12z Herstmonceux sounding will be the tell-tale, but be prepared to watch our neighbours to the North East and in France / Benelux get the light and sound show.

i thought as much. but you never know, some of the best storms i have seen have come out of nowhere!

[Coast]

bobbydog, on 03 August 2011 - 08:24 , said:

i thought as much. but you never know, some of the best storms i have seen have come out of nowhere!

Here's hoping!