This topic is locked
Got stubborn dark grey cloud still smack bang over my head. Still feels so humid though. I wonder if this front of cloud over us will shift a bit to allow some convection around here...the stuff moving through France looks interesting but at this moment, it looks like itll track too far North East for me.
A day of satellite watching!
0
2nd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discusion And Reports
Started by Staffordshire, Aug 01 2011 19:33
227 replies to this topic
#41
Chris K
-
- Members
- 423 posts
- Gender:Male
- Location:Thornbury, South Gloucestershire
- Weather Preferences:Thundery Weather or Snow
Posted 02 August 2011 - 08:39
#42
Daveweiser
-
- Members
- 226 posts
- Gender:Male
- Location:Kempston, Bedfordshire mk42
Posted 02 August 2011 - 09:08
Suns back out today very nice 23c, cape and lifted arnt to great here today but will be in negative for the first time in a week so fingers crossed again#!
Im in South Africa to do some volunteering i'll be back.
#43
Solar Sausage
-
- Forum Team
-
- 19,288 posts
Hello. I'm Johnny Cash!
- Gender:Male
- Location:Olney, Bucks.
Posted 02 August 2011 - 09:13
Harry, on 02 August 2011 - 07:49 , said:
www.sat24.com
Already some potent storms erupting over S of France...the low responsible is tracking North so hopefully will deliver something later....sheer fantasy I know but it'll be nice watching the satellite today any rate. I have just had this gut feeling for the past few days that the low could track further north and throw something towards S England, contrary to almost every model/forecast going...then again, pretty much every model, chart and forecast was breaking out thunderstorms across C/S England on 27th June which didn't materialise either....
Already some potent storms erupting over S of France...the low responsible is tracking North so hopefully will deliver something later....sheer fantasy I know but it'll be nice watching the satellite today any rate. I have just had this gut feeling for the past few days that the low could track further north and throw something towards S England, contrary to almost every model/forecast going...then again, pretty much every model, chart and forecast was breaking out thunderstorms across C/S England on 27th June which didn't materialise either....
Let's just hope you are right, Harry. Maybe this morning's downpour was a sign of things to come?
Pete
Bumbulus Londonicus says: rhubarb, rhubarb, rhubarb...
Non cogito ergo non sum!
Views and opinions expressed in this or any other of my posts are my own
http://www.don-linds.../arguments.html
CCCP
Bumbulus Londonicus says: rhubarb, rhubarb, rhubarb...
Non cogito ergo non sum!
Views and opinions expressed in this or any other of my posts are my own
http://www.don-linds.../arguments.html
CCCP
#44
Coast
-
- Forum Team
-
- 11,642 posts
Rider on the storm
- Gender:Male
- Location:Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted 02 August 2011 - 09:18
Dewpoints way up today as well, more sticky members here again!
Now, you listen here:'e's not the Messiah,'e's a very naughty boy!
Views & opinions expressed in any of my posts are my own - but the voices made me do it
#45
Flash Elvis
-
- Members
- 283 posts
- Gender:Male
- Location:Rayleigh, Essex
Posted 02 August 2011 - 09:19
Dont want to put a downer on it, but that stuff over SW France is decaying....lets hope it finds some juice and spices itself up 
Got nothing but grey sky atm....
Got nothing but grey sky atm....
#46
Purplepixii
-
- Members
- 335 posts
- Gender:Female
- Location:Fareham, Hampshire
- Weather Preferences:Thunderstorms, Severe Weather events
Posted 02 August 2011 - 09:24
Coast, on 02 August 2011 - 09:18 , said:
more sticky members here again!
That comment is just so wrong...
Coastal Reality Freak #1 (& proud of it!)
2012's Storms: 12/04, 13/04
2012's Snow: 30/01, 04/02, 09/02 - Snowflakes
2011's Storms: 06/05, 27/06, 28/06, 07/08, 03/11
2011's Snow: 16/12
#47
Flash Elvis
-
- Members
- 283 posts
- Gender:Male
- Location:Rayleigh, Essex
Posted 02 August 2011 - 09:29
Purplepixii, on 02 August 2011 - 09:24 , said:
That comment is just so wrong...
Can we get back on topic please....
#48
Coast
-
- Forum Team
-
- 11,642 posts
Rider on the storm
- Gender:Male
- Location:Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted 02 August 2011 - 09:30
Purplepixii, on 02 August 2011 - 09:24 , said:
That comment is just so wrong...
I don't have the same smutty mind as some on here....... 
Now, you listen here:'e's not the Messiah,'e's a very naughty boy!
Views & opinions expressed in any of my posts are my own - but the voices made me do it
#49
Daveweiser
-
- Members
- 226 posts
- Gender:Male
- Location:Kempston, Bedfordshire mk42
Posted 02 August 2011 - 09:39
Im in South Africa to do some volunteering i'll be back.
#50
Staffordshire
-
- Members
- 789 posts
- Gender:Male
- Location:Lichfield
Posted 02 August 2011 - 09:43
Okay I've figured out why we haven't got the storms today! Whenever I mention it to another person (sister) on the next run it goes wrong! So from now on I'm going to jeep it zipped.
The wetaher always pays its debts.
#51
Miguel Hugo Roberto
-
- Members
- 4,962 posts
- Gender:Male
- Location:Egham, Surrey
Posted 02 August 2011 - 09:51
Well I have to say I'm not that bothered about storms this time around - I just want some sunshine to actually class this spell as a 'warmer' than average let alone hot!
I think the West Country has better chances this weekend as what was being shown as a ver deep low of 990mb is now a very slack low with a large centre of about 1005mb which should be perfect for slow-moving thundery downpours.
As for today, just looks like an ordinary British summer day.
I think the West Country has better chances this weekend as what was being shown as a ver deep low of 990mb is now a very slack low with a large centre of about 1005mb which should be perfect for slow-moving thundery downpours.
As for today, just looks like an ordinary British summer day.
April 2012: 7.5C/143.7mm
2012:
Highest Max: 20.0C (28/03)
Lowest Max: -00.1C (03/02)
Highest Min: 08.1C (08/04)
Lowest Min: -07.8C (03/02)
Total Rain: 283.8mm
Wettest Day: 28.2mm (30/04)
Frosty Days: 25
Snowfall Days: 6 (30/01) / (31/01) / (04/02) / (05/02) / (09/02) / (10/02)
Snowlie Days: 3 (05/02) / (10/02) / (11/02)
Thunder Days: 4 (17/03) / (12/04) / (19/04) / (25/04)
Thunderstorms: 2 (17/03) / (12/04)
2012:
Highest Max: 20.0C (28/03)
Lowest Max: -00.1C (03/02)
Highest Min: 08.1C (08/04)
Lowest Min: -07.8C (03/02)
Total Rain: 283.8mm
Wettest Day: 28.2mm (30/04)
Frosty Days: 25
Snowfall Days: 6 (30/01) / (31/01) / (04/02) / (05/02) / (09/02) / (10/02)
Snowlie Days: 3 (05/02) / (10/02) / (11/02)
Thunder Days: 4 (17/03) / (12/04) / (19/04) / (25/04)
Thunderstorms: 2 (17/03) / (12/04)
#52
sunny scunny
-
- Members
- 7,299 posts
King kenny
- Gender:Male
- Location:Scunny Lincolnshire.41m (134FT)ASL
Posted 02 August 2011 - 09:57
I see my area has got a weather warning for later.No doubt it will stay hot and sunny all day.
45CM/18 INCHES OF SNOW ON DECEMBER 3RD 2010 WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO -15C.
#53
Lauren
-
- Members
- 867 posts
Praying to Thor.
- Gender:Female
- Location:North West Kent - 57m ASL
- Weather Preferences:Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
Posted 02 August 2011 - 10:10
One is feeling rather damp today.
With humidity obviously.....
With humidity obviously.....
#54
Coast
-
- Forum Team
-
- 11,642 posts
Rider on the storm
- Gender:Male
- Location:Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted 02 August 2011 - 10:15
Daveweiser, on 02 August 2011 - 09:39 , said:
Hmm seems to cover the areas that have been highlighted variously this morning and mentions the T word at last!
Quote
Issued at - 02 Aug 2011, 10:31
Valid from - 02 Aug 2011, 15:00
Valid to - 02 Aug 2011, 22:00
Slow moving scattered and heavy showers will develop across parts of eastern England this afternoon, giving rainfall totals of 10 to 15 mm in 3 hours. However, up to 40 mm of rain is possible in 1 to 2 hours very locally, with hail and thunder.
Valid from - 02 Aug 2011, 15:00
Valid to - 02 Aug 2011, 22:00
Slow moving scattered and heavy showers will develop across parts of eastern England this afternoon, giving rainfall totals of 10 to 15 mm in 3 hours. However, up to 40 mm of rain is possible in 1 to 2 hours very locally, with hail and thunder.
Now, you listen here:'e's not the Messiah,'e's a very naughty boy!
Views & opinions expressed in any of my posts are my own - but the voices made me do it
#55
lewisosd
-
- Members
- 371 posts
- Gender:Male
- Location:Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
Posted 02 August 2011 - 10:19
Just had a nice shower about an hour ago. Sun is out now, hoping this gives way to some convection. A day of radar watching me thinks!
Storm chase 2012 tour 4
Arizona Desert Monsoon Chasing 2012
Storm chase 2013 tour 3
Arizona Desert Monsoon Chasing 2012
Storm chase 2013 tour 3
#56
Boar Wrinklestorm
-
- Members
- 4,410 posts
Occluded Brain
- Gender:Male
- Location:Rochester, Kent
Posted 02 August 2011 - 10:48
[London/SE]
Better convective parameters for London, and the SE, today.
LI is negative, CAPE is reasonably high. Just about a moderately convective atmosphere (K) with thunderstorms likely (TT). Nothing severe for this neck of the woods, and showers look likely to be isolated, and very few of them will be thundery if surface heating triggers. Only problem is Td line. Normal rule of thumb for t/storms and snow, is that if one thing doesn't come together (out of the many things there are) then it just ain't happening.
Radar watching for SE from 3pm - risk carries right round until about 9pm tonight. I wouldn't hold out too much hope, though.
Better convective parameters for London, and the SE, today.
LI is negative, CAPE is reasonably high. Just about a moderately convective atmosphere (K) with thunderstorms likely (TT). Nothing severe for this neck of the woods, and showers look likely to be isolated, and very few of them will be thundery if surface heating triggers. Only problem is Td line. Normal rule of thumb for t/storms and snow, is that if one thing doesn't come together (out of the many things there are) then it just ain't happening.
Radar watching for SE from 3pm - risk carries right round until about 9pm tonight. I wouldn't hold out too much hope, though.
Edited by Sparticle, 02 August 2011 - 10:51 .
#57
SNOW_JOKE
-
- Members
- 1,734 posts
- Gender:Male
- Location:Whaley Bridge - High Peak
- Weather Preferences:RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
Posted 02 August 2011 - 11:08
Saw the Beeb forecast mention the possibility of storms in the East later on today also.
You know us in the Northwest this year could be faced with a CAT5 from the Atlantic. and yet by some co-incidence it would still miss us, and hit the East instead. What a cr-p year for storms in this part of the world.
You know us in the Northwest this year could be faced with a CAT5 from the Atlantic. and yet by some co-incidence it would still miss us, and hit the East instead. What a cr-p year for storms in this part of the world.
Highest Shade Temperature 30.7°C at 15.51 on 9th August 2003
Low Temperature -11.0°C at 07:35 on 20th December 2010
Highest Daily Rainfall 77 mm (3.03 inches) on 10th August 2004
Highest Monthly Rainfall 287 mm (11.30 inches) in August 2004
Low Temperature -11.0°C at 07:35 on 20th December 2010
Highest Daily Rainfall 77 mm (3.03 inches) on 10th August 2004
Highest Monthly Rainfall 287 mm (11.30 inches) in August 2004
#58
Harry
-
- Members
- 3,757 posts
Supercell
- Gender:Male
- Location:Chatham, Kent. Work in C London
Posted 02 August 2011 - 11:09
Sparticle, on 02 August 2011 - 10:48 , said:
[London/SE]
Better convective parameters for London, and the SE, today.
u3764_11080218_0200.gif
LI is negative, CAPE is reasonably high. Just about a moderately convective atmosphere (K) with thunderstorms likely (TT). Nothing severe for this neck of the woods, and showers look likely to be isolated, and very few of them will be thundery if surface heating triggers. Only problem is Td line. Normal rule of thumb for t/storms and snow, is that if one thing doesn't come together (out of the many things there are) then it just ain't happening.
Radar watching for SE from 3pm - risk carries right round until about 9pm tonight. I wouldn't hold out too much hope, though.
Better convective parameters for London, and the SE, today.
u3764_11080218_0200.gifLI is negative, CAPE is reasonably high. Just about a moderately convective atmosphere (K) with thunderstorms likely (TT). Nothing severe for this neck of the woods, and showers look likely to be isolated, and very few of them will be thundery if surface heating triggers. Only problem is Td line. Normal rule of thumb for t/storms and snow, is that if one thing doesn't come together (out of the many things there are) then it just ain't happening.
Radar watching for SE from 3pm - risk carries right round until about 9pm tonight. I wouldn't hold out too much hope, though.
Arguably one of the more interesting bits of data to note on that skew chart is the CIN (Convective Inhibition)...which is 0!
Just checked GFS 06z which indicates virtually 0 CAPE for London today....so which is it, zero or 800+?
This is why I am doubtful, in part, of some of the models/charts floating around today...seems all very "what is going to happen"
Edited by Coast, 02 August 2011 - 11:26 .
USA Storm Chase 2010 Tour 1
Supercells - 6
Tornadoes - 3
States Visited - 7 (TX,OK,KS,NE,MO,AR,TN)
Snow and Thunder Totals - 2012 (2011 in brackets for comparison)
Highest snowfall recorded - 8 inches (2011 - 6 inches)
Thunder - storms/showers/rain - 8 (2011 - 8 days)
Thunder/Lightning Days - 6 days/1 Night - 10/4, 11/4, 12/4, 13/4, 19/4, 15/5 / 30/4 (2011 - 8 days)
Supercells - 6
Tornadoes - 3
States Visited - 7 (TX,OK,KS,NE,MO,AR,TN)
Snow and Thunder Totals - 2012 (2011 in brackets for comparison)
Highest snowfall recorded - 8 inches (2011 - 6 inches)
Thunder - storms/showers/rain - 8 (2011 - 8 days)
Thunder/Lightning Days - 6 days/1 Night - 10/4, 11/4, 12/4, 13/4, 19/4, 15/5 / 30/4 (2011 - 8 days)
#59
Daveweiser
-
- Members
- 226 posts
- Gender:Male
- Location:Kempston, Bedfordshire mk42
Posted 02 August 2011 - 11:10
I spoke to soon earlyer now the liften index here Wont be going negative gfs give me a storm i need one.
Im in South Africa to do some volunteering i'll be back.
#60
Staffordshire
-
- Members
- 789 posts
- Gender:Male
- Location:Lichfield
Posted 02 August 2011 - 11:12
SNOW_JOKE, on 02 August 2011 - 11:08 , said:
Saw the Beeb forecast mention the possibility of storms in the East later on today also.
You know us in the Northwest this year could be faced with a CAT5 from the Atlantic. and yet by some co-incidence it would still miss us, and hit the East instead. What a cr-p year for storms in this part of the world.
You know us in the Northwest this year could be faced with a CAT5 from the Atlantic. and yet by some co-incidence it would still miss us, and hit the East instead. What a cr-p year for storms in this part of the world.
The wetaher always pays its debts.
0 user(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users
