Edited by Staffordshire, 01 August 2011 - 19:33 .
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2nd Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discusion And Reports
Started by Staffordshire, Aug 01 2011 19:33
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#1
Staffordshire
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Posted 01 August 2011 - 19:33
Bit disapointing with theese downgrades but surely there's still something to play for!
The wetaher always pays its debts.
#2
SNOW_JOKE
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Posted 01 August 2011 - 20:35
Glad I managed to have some sleep just now. Giving whats coming out of the Bay of Biscay has some potential for the South later on. http://en.allmetsat....ning-europe.php
Highest Shade Temperature 30.7°C at 15.51 on 9th August 2003
Low Temperature -11.0°C at 07:35 on 20th December 2010
Highest Daily Rainfall 77 mm (3.03 inches) on 10th August 2004
Highest Monthly Rainfall 287 mm (11.30 inches) in August 2004
Low Temperature -11.0°C at 07:35 on 20th December 2010
Highest Daily Rainfall 77 mm (3.03 inches) on 10th August 2004
Highest Monthly Rainfall 287 mm (11.30 inches) in August 2004
#3
Staffordshire
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Posted 01 August 2011 - 20:37
Anyone mind posting the estofex, Uksaf forecast as Im on iPod so can't 
thanks!
thanks!
The wetaher always pays its debts.
#4
Jane Louise
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Posted 01 August 2011 - 20:42
A potent short-wave trough will be moving from N Iberia across the Bay of Biscay towards UK, pushing an EML into France. A developing SFC low in SW France will favour moisture return into S-CNTRL France which results in moderately instability during the peak heating hours, approx. 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE seem reasonable to become available. With 25 m/s mid-level jet around the base of the trough, around 20 m/s of deep layer shear will become available, overlaping well with the instability. Despite rather strong capping, storms are expected to initiate in the mid afternoon hours and organize into multicells and supercells. Severe wind gust and large to very large hail will be the primary threat. Probabilities for a tornado or two are higher towards the evening when SREH improves across S France. Storms could cluster into a larger system across the central France in the evening hours, trailing NEwards and diminish overnight when instability vanishes.
http://www.estofex.org/
Nothing from UKASF yet, but I'm sure Stuart will post up when its out.
Can't seem to post the image up ,will keep trying for you Staffordshire.
http://www.estofex.org/
Nothing from UKASF yet, but I'm sure Stuart will post up when its out.
Can't seem to post the image up ,will keep trying for you Staffordshire.
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#5
Stuart
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Posted 01 August 2011 - 20:46
I will if if it before 10 
#6
Phelpsy
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Posted 01 August 2011 - 20:48
i noticed the sky here earlier to Jane, but nothing come of it as usual lol
#7
Jane Louise
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Posted 01 August 2011 - 20:47
Stuart, on 01 August 2011 - 20:46 , said:
I will if if it before 10
Lol Stu, I'm hoping they don't leave it to late either.
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#8
Staffordshire
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Posted 01 August 2011 - 20:49
Thanks for that, looks like a bit of a bummer then 
The wetaher always pays its debts.
#9
Harry
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Posted 01 August 2011 - 20:50
Staffordshire, on 01 August 2011 - 19:33 , said:
Bit disapointing with theese downgrades but surely there's still something to play for!
I have been rather on the pessimistic side I admit, but there does seem to be a hell of a lot of uncertainty over the coming day or two.
We have heat, we have moisture, we have depressions, we have fronts, we have troughs, lots of sunshine....all of which are constantly being relocated on charts, models and the like.
Lets not rule anything out just yet...for one, the BBC/MetO now thinking heat could stay into Wednesday (30C forecast for SE at the moment) which wasn't forecast a few days ago...lets be patient
Edited by Harry, 01 August 2011 - 20:51 .
USA Storm Chase 2010 Tour 1
Supercells - 6
Tornadoes - 3
States Visited - 7 (TX,OK,KS,NE,MO,AR,TN)
Snow and Thunder Totals - 2012 (2011 in brackets for comparison)
Highest snowfall recorded - 8 inches (2011 - 6 inches)
Thunder - storms/showers/rain - 8 (2011 - 8 days)
Thunder/Lightning Days - 6 days/1 Night - 10/4, 11/4, 12/4, 13/4, 19/4, 15/5 / 30/4 (2011 - 8 days)
Supercells - 6
Tornadoes - 3
States Visited - 7 (TX,OK,KS,NE,MO,AR,TN)
Snow and Thunder Totals - 2012 (2011 in brackets for comparison)
Highest snowfall recorded - 8 inches (2011 - 6 inches)
Thunder - storms/showers/rain - 8 (2011 - 8 days)
Thunder/Lightning Days - 6 days/1 Night - 10/4, 11/4, 12/4, 13/4, 19/4, 15/5 / 30/4 (2011 - 8 days)
#10
SNOW_JOKE
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Posted 01 August 2011 - 20:52
Kent clipper on the cards with that MCS holds itself together coming into France. Looks to be build around the main core now so its 'tapping' into the CAPE avaliable. http://www.sat24.com/en/fr
Highest Shade Temperature 30.7°C at 15.51 on 9th August 2003
Low Temperature -11.0°C at 07:35 on 20th December 2010
Highest Daily Rainfall 77 mm (3.03 inches) on 10th August 2004
Highest Monthly Rainfall 287 mm (11.30 inches) in August 2004
Low Temperature -11.0°C at 07:35 on 20th December 2010
Highest Daily Rainfall 77 mm (3.03 inches) on 10th August 2004
Highest Monthly Rainfall 287 mm (11.30 inches) in August 2004
#11
Jane Louise
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Posted 01 August 2011 - 20:55
Phelpsy, on 01 August 2011 - 20:48 , said:
i noticed the sky here earlier to Jane, but nothing come of it as usual lol
I really believed we were going to get a storm . I thought I heard thunder but it was a damn jet grrrrrr. If it aint a jet it's always a wheelie bin lol
Oh well, let's see what tomorrow brings for us.
Please Come visit us at the Storm Enthusiasts group we'd love to hear your storm stories and more!!
The UK’s Most Fully Featured Weather Radar Tired of being caught out by the Rain, Sleet or Snow?
Experience the most featured & accurate weather radar in the UK. Using the high resolution radar which is updated every 5 minutes you’ll be able to stay up to date with the very latest weather situation. You can even track the latest weather to your home, work or favourite golf course with custom & postcode zooms. Plan ahead with confidence!
1 Month £3.49 -- 12 Months £23.95 http://www.netweathe...ype=radar;sess=
Views and opinions expressed in this or any other of my posts are well and truly my own.
If you're frustrated with the lack of Thunderstorms,come vent your anger at 'The No Storms Club' hosted by Jane Louise & Phil UK.
#12
Stuart
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Posted 01 August 2011 - 20:58
Jane Louise, on 01 August 2011 - 20:55 , said:
I really believed we were going to get a storm . I thought I heard thunder but it was a damn jet grrrrrr. If it aint a jet it's always a wheelie bin lol
Oh well, let's see what tomorrow brings for us.
Oh well, let's see what tomorrow brings for us.
i agree there jane there a lot of them here
going be wose when i move going be next of a airport
Edited by Stuart, 01 August 2011 - 21:03 .
#13
NUT
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Posted 01 August 2011 - 21:04
Must admit estofex is looking promising..........but can it come together? Only time will tell
John, Cumbernauld, Glasgow.
#14
Chris K
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Posted 01 August 2011 - 21:12
SNOW_JOKE, on 01 August 2011 - 20:52 , said:
Kent clipper on the cards with that MCS holds itself together coming into France. Looks to be build around the main core now so its 'tapping' into the CAPE avaliable. http://www.sat24.com/en/fr
I would love to be in West/Central Spain right now. It's interesting watching it develop on there.
Anyway, although there doesn't seem to be as much potential anymore for the SW tomorrow, lets hope something does develop when the fronts continue moving in - considering there still is some uncertainty.
#15
Stuart
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Posted 01 August 2011 - 21:21
Last Updated: 22:19 Monday, 1st August 2011
Valid: 00:00 Tuesday, 2nd August 2011 - 23:59 Tuesday, 2nd August 2011
Areas Affected:
MDT: SE Scotland, NE England and E Midlands SLGT: E Scotland, N England, Midlands, W Country, East Anglia and Home Counties
Synopsis:
An upper ridge continues to strengthen to the east of the United Kingdom, whilst a quasi-stationary cold front will straddle W-C Britain. The main bulk of any noteworthy convective activity will be along and to the east of this frontal boundary.
Discussion:
High WBPT's continue to be advected northwards across C and E Britain during the forecast period, associated with a warm and humid airmass. Diurnal heating will allow a few hundred J/kg CAPE to develop, providing an environment favourable for convective initiation. In fact, due to the more widespread coverage of insolation compared to Monday, lightning is more likely to occur.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop in a weakly-sheared environment. ELT's as low as -35C are possible which would allow some decent deep convection to develop, particularly aided by topographic uplift and thus those areas to the east of high ground, based on a predominant southwesterly wind, will be at greatest risk of thunder and lightning. Severe weather is unlikely although some small hail and locally large rainfall totals are possible during some slow-moving storms.
Current thinking is that thunderstorms will initially develop over NE England/E Scottish Borders through the morning, and this development will then extend further south towards The Wash during the afternoon. Storms that do develop will pulse NEwards over the North Sea, where they will slowly decay during the evening.
http://www.ukasf.co....rm-forecasts/59
Valid: 00:00 Tuesday, 2nd August 2011 - 23:59 Tuesday, 2nd August 2011
Areas Affected:
MDT: SE Scotland, NE England and E Midlands SLGT: E Scotland, N England, Midlands, W Country, East Anglia and Home Counties
Synopsis:
An upper ridge continues to strengthen to the east of the United Kingdom, whilst a quasi-stationary cold front will straddle W-C Britain. The main bulk of any noteworthy convective activity will be along and to the east of this frontal boundary.
Discussion:
High WBPT's continue to be advected northwards across C and E Britain during the forecast period, associated with a warm and humid airmass. Diurnal heating will allow a few hundred J/kg CAPE to develop, providing an environment favourable for convective initiation. In fact, due to the more widespread coverage of insolation compared to Monday, lightning is more likely to occur.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop in a weakly-sheared environment. ELT's as low as -35C are possible which would allow some decent deep convection to develop, particularly aided by topographic uplift and thus those areas to the east of high ground, based on a predominant southwesterly wind, will be at greatest risk of thunder and lightning. Severe weather is unlikely although some small hail and locally large rainfall totals are possible during some slow-moving storms.
Current thinking is that thunderstorms will initially develop over NE England/E Scottish Borders through the morning, and this development will then extend further south towards The Wash during the afternoon. Storms that do develop will pulse NEwards over the North Sea, where they will slowly decay during the evening.
http://www.ukasf.co....rm-forecasts/59
#16
Staffordshire
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Posted 01 August 2011 - 21:25
Grrrrrrrn it frustrates me so so much that for once the west are forecast to get storms then at the last moment the NE nicks them! They've had brilliant storm season and they get spolit in the winter aswelll GRrRRRRR.
The wetaher always pays its debts.
#17
Static Prevails
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Posted 01 August 2011 - 21:39
Is it okay for me to pretend I'm just ten miles further east so I can be in the orange risk box in the UKASF forecast map?
It's a day to keep an eye on. There will be more potential than there was today, definitely.
It's a day to keep an eye on. There will be more potential than there was today, definitely.
Snow (Winter 2011-2012):
05/12- A heavy snow shower earlier on in the morning, and then a very brief snow shower in the late morning. Lots of sleet too with hail also falling at times. There was no accumulation.
09/12- A shower that started as rain but turned to snow with decently sized flakes. The snow was moderate and did not settle, due to previous rain in the day.
31/01- Some extremely light snow (snizzle) fell in the late morning. There was no accumulation.
04/02- Frontal snowfall for around seven hours. The snow began at around 2pm and was very light until around 6pm, where it became heavier. By the end of the event there was an accumulation of 10cm.
09/02- Moderate freezing rain was followed by half an hour or so of light snow which gave a very slight covering. There was no measurable accumulation.
04/04- Frontal snowfall gave a good covering of 8cm or so on the grass, although it quickly melted.
Days of lying snow- 9 (05/02, 06/02, 07/02, 08/02, 09/02, 10/02, 11/02, 12/02, 04/04)
05/12- A heavy snow shower earlier on in the morning, and then a very brief snow shower in the late morning. Lots of sleet too with hail also falling at times. There was no accumulation.
09/12- A shower that started as rain but turned to snow with decently sized flakes. The snow was moderate and did not settle, due to previous rain in the day.
31/01- Some extremely light snow (snizzle) fell in the late morning. There was no accumulation.
04/02- Frontal snowfall for around seven hours. The snow began at around 2pm and was very light until around 6pm, where it became heavier. By the end of the event there was an accumulation of 10cm.
09/02- Moderate freezing rain was followed by half an hour or so of light snow which gave a very slight covering. There was no measurable accumulation.
04/04- Frontal snowfall gave a good covering of 8cm or so on the grass, although it quickly melted.
Days of lying snow- 9 (05/02, 06/02, 07/02, 08/02, 09/02, 10/02, 11/02, 12/02, 04/04)
#18
ajpoolshark
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Posted 01 August 2011 - 21:40
Staffordshire, on 01 August 2011 - 21:25 , said:
Grrrrrrrn it frustrates me so so much that for once the west are forecast to get storms then at the last moment the NE nicks them! They've had brilliant storm season and they get spolit in the winter aswelll GRrRRRRR.
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Thunderstorms this year 2011.......
6/5/11 - Elevated plume type thunderstorm, plenty of IC & CG strikes
9/5/11- Surface Based Monster!....Best storm I've seen in the UK in the flesh!
snow 2010/11 winter:
.....Nov 27th - 2cm
.....Nov 30th - Dec 1st - 7-8cm Wash streamer
My YouTube Channel Here
Save up to �1000 a year?...money back in YOUR pocket?.....click here to find out how!
Thunderstorms this year 2011.......
6/5/11 - Elevated plume type thunderstorm, plenty of IC & CG strikes
9/5/11- Surface Based Monster!....Best storm I've seen in the UK in the flesh!
snow 2010/11 winter:
.....Nov 27th - 2cm
.....Nov 30th - Dec 1st - 7-8cm Wash streamer
My YouTube Channel Here
#19
Daveweiser
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Posted 01 August 2011 - 21:46
ajpoolshark, on 01 August 2011 - 21:40 , said:
Well, as the old saying goes, if you don't like it, then move!...............and if you can't move, then make the best of it and stop moaning!
Exactly what i thought! Would love to see a storm before i move though...
Im in South Africa to do some volunteering i'll be back.
#20
Staffordshire
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Posted 01 August 2011 - 21:48
ajpoolshark, on 01 August 2011 - 21:40 , said:
Well, as the old saying goes, if you don't like it, then move!...............and if you can't move, then make the best of it and stop moaning!
The wetaher always pays its debts.
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