69 replies to this topic

[Coast]

Rumours of more storms today - what do people think?

[Jane Louise]

Probably just a rumour lol

I'm still stormless here, but what's new lol

[grab my graupel]

Coast, on 20 July 2011 - 08:59 , said:

Rumours of more storms today - what do people think?

Not a chance I'm afraid

I'm expecting to see some showers later on, but as for any electrical activity, I can't see it happening

[Coast]

ESTOFEX say no:



UKASF say maybe the same as yesterday:

Quote

Forecaster: Chris
Last Updated: 21:23 Tuesday, 19th July 2011
Valid: 00:00 Wednesday, 20th July 2011 - 23:59 Wednesday, 20th July 2011
Areas Affected:

Northern England - T, Central Britain - W
Synopsis:

A broad area of low pressure will continue to persist across much of Britain with an upper trough axis positioned through Central Britain. A small area of low pressure and associated fronts will move near SW Britain during the afternoon.
Discussion:

Yet another day of low pressure will allow for large scale ascent across the f'cast area. The surface low will be centred near the Humber estuary at midday corresponding to the upper trough axis with 500mb temperatures around -19C. Weak SBCAPE values (300j/kg) and modest ELT of only -25C will mean that updraft depth may only make it to 20-25K feet, limiting potential for thunder activity. Surface heating combined with the Pennines will be the main low level drivers for convection and will generate a few heavy showers toward midday with some isolated thunder likely during the afternoon. DLS and LLS are very weak thus organised updraft / downdrafts are unlikely, however with convergence near the low centre it is possible some of the strongest updrafts could briefly produce weak funnels.

Main threats: Localised heavy downpours, isolated CGs

TORRO have no warnings and SkyWarn have this overview:

Quote

Severe Weather Risk: Moderate

More heavy and thundery showers for Scotland, and Northern and Eastern England, with persistent rain overnight. Elsewhere cloudy and cool.

Charts and indicators:











CAPE maybe there later:











I guess there is an area around the North York Moors that has a little potential, but it dosen't seem as well defined as yesterday to me.





What do people that know think?

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[shuggee]

BBC forecast at 09:27 was positively enthusiastic about northern England's storm potential - to the north and east of Leeds. "30-40mm of rain in torrential thundery downpours" was the expression used.

[Harry]

Perplexed by the terms used by some of the BBC weather forecasters...."vicious thunderstorms", "torrential thunderstorms", "intense thunderstorms"

Sorry, but just because showers/storms are slow moving, doesn't make them vicious, intense or otherwise.

The storm outbreak on the 28th June, and the isolated storms which broke out further N and W on the 27th, were vicious and intense

Emotive language IMO to highlight a flashing flooding (or more significant flooding) risk isn't helpful IMO...there's little to suggest the downpours will even be electrified.

Edited by Harry, 20 July 2011 - 09:21 .

[Nick F]

06z GFS suggests some weak CAPE developing across North Yorks this afternoon, so perhaps risk of some thunder here amongst the general heavy showers developing across northern and some eastern counties of England through the day.

Tomorrow looks a better chance for Wales, central and southern England for some storms to develop, as we see a trough across northern England in the morning reach southern UK in the early afternoon, as per fax:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVG89.png

[Purplepixii]

I agree Harry. In fact a recent survey indicated that the general public were very peed off with weather reporters using emotive language such as "barbeque weather" etc and the general consensus was that people would prefer to just know what the weather is forecast, not what the M.O./BBC/Weather forecaster thinks! Anyway, back on topic, no storms forecast down here boohoo

[grab my graupel]

Nick F, on 20 July 2011 - 09:43 , said:

06z GFS suggests some weak CAPE developing across North Yorks this afternoon, so perhaps risk of some thunder here amongst the general heavy showers developing across northern and some eastern counties of England through the day.

Excellent! I missed out on Yesterday's storms, which paid Scarborough a visit instead, so it could be my turn today
If today's showers are anything like yesterday's, I'll be happy with that.

Cheers, Nick

[Alza]

Torrential rain now. Getting rather sick of the garage flooding this Summer!

EDIT: This is incredible, I wouldn't be surprised to hear thunder soon!

Edited by alza, 20 July 2011 - 10:01 .

[topsweep1506]

Same here ALZA torrential rain here in Cramlington

TONY

[Harsh Climate]

Harry, on 20 July 2011 - 09:20 , said:

Perplexed by the terms used by some of the BBC weather forecasters...."vicious thunderstorms", "torrential thunderstorms", "intense thunderstorms"

Sorry, but just because showers/storms are slow moving, doesn't make them vicious, intense or otherwise.

The storm outbreak on the 28th June, and the isolated storms which broke out further N and W on the 27th, were vicious and intense

Emotive language IMO to highlight a flashing flooding (or more significant flooding) risk isn't helpful IMO...there's little to suggest the downpours will even be electrified.

lol, you have a go at the bbc using the term 'vicious' out of term, yet you have done the very same thing... The storms on the 28th june wern't viciouse. A viciouse storm is one that may result in many losses of life, baseball size hail, deadly lightning, or tornado outbreaks....

[Blizzards]

alza, on 20 July 2011 - 09:59 , said:

Torrential rain now. Getting rather sick of the garage flooding this Summer!

EDIT: This is incredible, I wouldn't be surprised to hear thunder soon!

Your area must have had a huge amount of rain from torrential downpours recently. Looks very slow moving on the radar. Wouldnt mind a bit of rain down here but its been quite dry again recently apart from the other day but wasnt that heavy.

[grab my graupel]

Nice heavy shower just arrived here

[vizzy2004]

grab my graupel, on 20 July 2011 - 09:51 , said:

Excellent! I missed out on Yesterday's storms, which paid Scarborough a visit instead, so it could could be my turn today
If today's showers are anything like yesterday's, I'll be happy with that.

Cheers, Nick

Hi Brian, fingers crossed for today! Shame we missed out yesterday after the potential and amount of rain. Have you seen any thunderstorms yet this year, only one ive seen was in Barcelona, not had one here in York since 2009 so heres hoping for today

Hope your well
Vizzy2004

[Paul-Michael]

Yes but despite the torrential rain which I am sure we can all do without - there is not a massive risk of thunderstorms today IMHO. To be honest it's like a mid winters day out there dull horrible miserable and nothing to write home about. Flooded roads are hardly anything to big up now are they?? Heavy thunderstorms are great but this rubbish outside is certainly not going to get my vote - Rant Over!!! lol

Blizzards, on 20 July 2011 - 10:46 , said:

Your area must have had a huge amount of rain from torrential downpours recently. Looks very slow moving on the radar. Wouldnt mind a bit of rain down here but its been quite dry again recently apart from the other day but wasnt that heavy.

Yes the NE has, and secretly between you and me I think Alza enjoys a bit of flooding now and again


*Joke Alza* but seriously not nice out there today!

[vizzy2004]

The showers coming off the North Sea seem to be intensifying as they hit the Yorkshire Wolds and North York Moors, the complete opposite of showers in winter which seem to die out as they head inland, any experts around to explain why?

[grab my graupel]

vizzy2004, on 20 July 2011 - 10:54 , said:

Hi Brian, fingers crossed for today! Shame we missed out yesterday after the potential and amount of rain. Have you seen any thunderstorms yet this year, only one ive seen was in Barcelona, not had one here in York since 2009 so heres hoping for today

Hope your well
Vizzy2004

Hi Vizzy, I fine thanks - hope you are too

Yes, I've done OK for storms this year. We've had about three at my actual location, and I've seen a couple when I've visited surrounding areas. It was only a few weeks ago when Malton school was closed after it was struck by lightning. Unfortunately, I didn't witness it myself, but my son was there at the time


Brian

[sunny scunny]

A chance of heavy showers here from around 3pm onwards,but just dry and cloudy so far.Showers developing near the coast though.

Edited by sunny scunny, 20 July 2011 - 11:03 .

[Thundery wintry showers]

Harry, on 20 July 2011 - 09:20 , said:

Perplexed by the terms used by some of the BBC weather forecasters...."vicious thunderstorms", "torrential thunderstorms", "intense thunderstorms"

My parents noted this over the last couple of days- they were expecting severe thunderstorms across the whole North East after watching the BBC forecasts and I was pretty perplexed by what they were saying as I only ever saw potential for sharp showers and scattered thunderstorms, and the odd localised severe one.

Purplepixii, on 20 July 2011 - 09:50 , said:

I agree Harry. In fact a recent survey indicated that the general public were very peed off with weather reporters using emotive language such as "barbeque weather" etc and the general consensus was that people would prefer to just know what the weather is forecast, not what the M.O./BBC/Weather forecaster thinks!

I've thought that for many years (ITV always used to be guilty of this, ever since I was a young child, while BBC didn't do much of this during the 1990s but progressively stepped it up during the 2000s as part of the general dumbing down- I think the Met Office, though, still keep it to a relative minimum despite their BBQ summer comment in 2009).

Cleadon is dry and cloudy with a lot of low cloud off the North Sea- I think the wind off the sea will keep it mostly dry here by suppressing convection, but since the low cloud is also affecting the inland areas that are getting the torrential downpours (hardly "sunshine and showers") I don't feel that I'm really missing out on much.