61 replies to this topic

[Jane Louise]

Although I don't see much potential,there could be a few sharp showers on the Western side of the UK! maybe an isolated thunderstorm too! Here's a new thread anyway who knows what may turn up.

Good luck everyone.

[Stuart]

Last Updated: 19:44 Monday, 11th July 2011

Valid: 00:00 Tuesday, 12th July 2011 - 23:59 Tuesday, 12th July 2011



Areas Affected:

None



Synopsis:

A surface area of high pressure (1027mb) situated just to the north and north-west of the UK is forecast to dominate the weather across many areas of the UK during the day. Mid and upper level conditions are also anticyclonic, with 500mb temperatures for example up to -15C to -20C in association with warming from subsidence across the UK.

Discussion:

The predominantly fine and settled conditions are forecast to continue across many areas of the UK during the course of Tuesday. Latest data and forecast soundings signal that parts of Wales, W England and perhaps Ireland may well experience some slight instability, but only up to 10,000ft at very most. A few scattered light or moderate showers may develop, particularly in association with any localised convergence zones for example, but there is little or no significant evidence to suggest that thunderstorms will develop across the UK during Tuesday.

As an addition a highly convective area of low pressure is forecast to affect many areas of the near Continent during Tuesday. This area of low pressure has been signalled for numerous days, but the majority, if not all of the forecast models keep the main convective activity and thunderstorms threat over in the near continent. Some precipitation may well affect parts of the far south and south-east during Tuesday in association with this system, but again there is little or no evident to suggest convection and/or thunderstorms will be present. This feature will be monitored however in case the convective threat does end up being further north and west, which as a result may then affect Sussex and Kent for example.



http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/37

[Jane Louise]

Stuart, on 11 July 2011 - 19:34 , said:

Last Updated: 19:44 Monday, 11th July 2011

Valid: 00:00 Tuesday, 12th July 2011 - 23:59 Tuesday, 12th July 2011



Areas Affected:

None



Synopsis:

A surface area of high pressure (1027mb) situated just to the north and north-west of the UK is forecast to dominate the weather across many areas of the UK during the day. Mid and upper level conditions are also anticyclonic, with 500mb temperatures for example up to -15C to -20C in association with warming from subsidence across the UK.

Discussion:

The predominantly fine and settled conditions are forecast to continue across many areas of the UK during the course of Tuesday. Latest data and forecast soundings signal that parts of Wales, W England and perhaps Ireland may well experience some slight instability, but only up to 10,000ft at very most. A few scattered light or moderate showers may develop, particularly in association with any localised convergence zones for example, but there is little or no significant evidence to suggest that thunderstorms will develop across the UK during Tuesday.

As an addition a highly convective area of low pressure is forecast to affect many areas of the near Continent during Tuesday. This area of low pressure has been signalled for numerous days, but the majority, if not all of the forecast models keep the main convective activity and thunderstorms threat over in the near continent. Some precipitation may well affect parts of the far south and south-east during Tuesday in association with this system, but again there is little or no evident to suggest convection and/or thunderstorms will be present. This feature will be monitored however in case the convective threat does end up being further north and west, which as a result may then affect Sussex and Kent for example.



http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/37

Thanks Stu,

I am hoping for a few sharp showers tomorrow. I probably wont get a thunderstorm as usual grrrr.But it'll be nice to have a downpour or two if it happens!

[Craigers]

Stangest thing has just happend here. Sharp shower just poped from no where. Check dn5

[Jane Louise]

Craigers, on 11 July 2011 - 20:13 , said:

Stangest thing has just happend here. Sharp shower just poped from no where. Check dn5

Just checked! lucky you wouldn't mind one popping up here too. I did see weak mammatus here earlier which I 'm presuming is an indication for showers here tomorrow.

[Phelpsy]

jeesh, how dark here?

[Stuart]

I may see some shap showers like today but dont think i hear any thunder or see any lightning

Edited by Stuart, 11 July 2011 - 20:34 .

[paul m]

Met office says that some thundery showers should develop towards the south west and south east tomorrow (wed)

[Purplepixii]

paul m, on 11 July 2011 - 21:57 , said:

Met office says that some thundery showers should develop towards the south west and south east tomorrow (wed)

Not for me - I'll be topping up my tan and catching up on some books I've been meaning to read for ages (and fit a trip to the pub in there somewhere!)
"Any early mist clearing. Some sunny spells but cloud will increase during the day. Rain will spread across counties to the south and east of London, including the City itself. Maximum temperature 21 °C."

[ElectricSnowStorm]

Taking alook at the radar not to long ago we have an area of rain not far from the SW coast..this rain appears to be a little heavier and nearer then the GFS/NAE are showing.
Watch - Monday - Western areas/Wales/Ireland/Southern areas -HEAVY RAIN/CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION/POSSIBLE THUNDER(at this stage)
-radar
-cloud sat showing where the rain is on that radar snap

NAE 18z breaks out heavy ppn over across the lake through monday with thunderstorms-this is the low to keep a watch on, also NAE breaks out some pockets of ppn in other areas to-note Wales for instance.






the Lifted index charts for 12pm GFS 18z show unstable and very unstable air across France, with some slightly unstable air in the Channel(south of the green line) and the SW and over other areas inland-the light blue areas,


by 6pm the slightly unstable air covers most areas with some pockets of unstable air(yellow) over Wales and Ireland,


some areas of CAPE over areas of Wales and Ireland especially are enough to break out heavy showers, but their is a chance they could turn thundery if conditions move towards that possibility developing on tuesday, so its a watch!





if the low over France moves closer to the South of England then the rain could embed some action! this of course then would add some extra kick to those showers over inland areas-creating thunderstorms-so its a close watch, ive already said that the rain does look closer and heavier than i expected(near to the SW) this is a good sign then! the further North the rain then the storms over France get closer!

next is the convective cloud cover for 3pm


vertical velocity at 700hpa next-i have circled 3 areas of interest inland. and look over the lake-their in for a bumpy ride!


UKMO-ppn charts show the heavy downpours clipping the south coast-can any convective action move up into the SE...
also those potential showers inland showing on here..



further North and West some cold upper temps remain-this is what we need for those showers to get big as long as we get ground heating!


- thats it from me, so the analysis shows the potential for some heavy showers inland over Wales and Ireland especially, these could be thundery if upgrades come ,then i still think the possibility is there for some big showers what could turn in to storms, the low could track a little closer then this would be the case, and then so convective developments over the lake then would be closer to the South with the South then getting a taster of French storms!

im learning this stuff and theres my thoughts ,wait til early tuesday for more charts to be put up from others when updates come in to see what is to become!!

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm, 11 July 2011 - 23:16 .

[paul m]

Purplepixii, on 11 July 2011 - 22:24 , said:

Not for me - I'll be topping up my tan and catching up on some books I've been meaning to read for ages (and fit a trip to the pub in there somewhere!)
"Any early mist clearing. Some sunny spells but cloud will increase during the day. Rain will spread across counties to the south and east of London, including the City itself. Maximum temperature 21 °C."

Isle of wight storm track has a 40% chance for down there.

[DeepSnow]

Looks like I might have a chance for something today, this is what the met office say for wales today;


"Today:
A few mist patches at first maybe, but otherwise a bright start with sunny intervals. Showers will develop by midday though, turning heavy and thundery across southern counties during the afternoon. Light northeasterly winds. Maximum temperature 19 °C"

[Coast]

paul m, on 12 July 2011 - 00:39 , said:

Isle of wight storm track has a 40% chance for down there.

The BBC South East today weather this morning at 6.30 mentioned sharp showers, with the possibility of some thunder Is it another one of those close, but just over the Channel days?

Quote

Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 12 Jul 2011 06:00 to Wed 13 Jul 2011 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 11 Jul 2011 19:57
Forecaster: KOROSEC

SYNOPSIS

A complex pattern across Europe on Tuesday. A progressive trough enters western-southwestern Europe while another trough affects Scandinavia. Another round of active severe storms is expected over highlighted areas with a few significant events possible locally.

DISCUSSION

... CNTRL France into W Germany ...

Another focus for rather robust severe storms exists along the slowly N-wards advecting warm front, extending from a SFC low in W-CNTRL France into W Germany. Placed under a strong mid-level jet, rich BL moisture results in moderate instability in the afternoon hours. GFS model is indeed again overestimating BL dewpoints and instability (Tds near 22-23°C / SBCAPE 3000 J/kg or more) while ECMWF seems more reasonable with around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE / 16-18°C SFC dewpoints. Backed flow near the warm front provides sufficient LL shear/SREH to support rotating updrafts. Storms initiation is mostly expected along the frontal convergence in mid/late afternoon hours. Favorable dynamics and kinematics should result in scattered multi and supercellular storms with threat for very large hail and damaging winds. Tornadoes could be possible as well, but this threat seems a bit limited with rather high dewpoint depression and meager wind field. Though, it improves in the evening when LLJ slightly intensifies. Storms should cluster into large MCS towards the evening, trailing NE-wards from NE France into NW Germany. A broken line with bowing segments could bring severe wind gusts and large hail.

However, conditions will be closely monitored for a possible upgrade into level 2 over these areas, especially if moisture field improves significantly on the morning SFC observations.

Looks like a good day to get on the ferry/tunnel and do France and Belgium, I'm really not sure it will get far enough across the Channel to bother us.

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[gottolovethisweather]

Hello guys n gals.

I think Purplepixii's sunbathing option has disappeared already judging by my cloudy skies but alas there may be some rain action for some folk!

Just look at this mass (which is electrically charged in France at the mo!) heading due northwards.



As for us in the south though, I think it's too damn cloudy already and Coast will no doubt be spot on again with his predictions. It does however, already have that humid feeling with air temp currently 14.8c and 87% humidity giving a Dewpoint of 12.7c and rising.

We can all but hope something turns up.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited by gottolovethisweather, 12 July 2011 - 08:12 .

[Coast]

gottolovethisweather, on 12 July 2011 - 08:11 , said:

As for us in the south though, I think it's too damn cloudy already and Coast will no doubt be spot on again with his predictions.

You do know that's more by luck, then any form of skill or judgement!?

[Nick F]

Looks like a few thunderstorms may pop up over the mountains of Wales this afternoon, also Ireland could see a few too. With weak deep layer shear, storms look to be of the 'pulse' variety, though wind convergence and local topography may aid in producing some funnels or even a brief weak tornado with the more buoyant updrafts.

[gpspete]

gottolovethisweather, on 12 July 2011 - 08:11 , said:

Hello guys n gals.

I think Purplepixii's sunbathing option has disappeared already judging by my cloudy skies but alas there may be some rain action for some folk!

Just look at this mass (which is electrically charged in France at the mo!) heading due northwards.

0850 grab - looking south.gif

As for us in the south though, I think it's too damn cloudy already and Coast will no doubt be spot on again with his predictions. It does however, already have that humid feeling with air temp currently 14.8c and 87% humidity giving a Dewpoint of 12.7c and rising.

We can all but hope something turns up.

Cheers


gottolovethisweather

looks like heavy rain in Guernsey
http://www.surecw.co...account/webcam/

Edited by gpspete, 12 July 2011 - 08:31 .

[gottolovethisweather]

Coast, on 12 July 2011 - 08:17 , said:

You do know that's more by luck, then any form of skill or judgement!?

Coast, you are far too modest (my head wanted to type moist ) but luck does play a big part in my attempts at forecasts on most occasions.

However, we are so lucky to have the most knowledgeable folk of all weather forums the www over.

Three Cheers to Netweather

Eastbourne's going to be in the firing line today, I can feel it.

Thundery Regards from the light cloudy skies of Newbury, 15.3c & 12.8c and a steady barometer.

gottolovethisweather

Edited by gottolovethisweather, 12 July 2011 - 08:40 .

[Coast]

Well France is getting its first storms of the day:

[Nick F]

Back after a week's holiday with the storm forecasts, Wales and Ireland could see a few storms this afternoon:

http://www.netweathe...f259fe7457353d3

Parts of France and Nern Spain look like having some severe storms today associated with circulation around low over France, with risk of tornadoes looking at Lightning Wizard's STP charts: