UK convective general discussion and forecasts

[weatherobsuk]

The range in where Meto Invent showers are going to be positioned for tomorrow is somewhat a estimate for now, but going from this and the GFS charts tomorrow at least for photogenic opportunities it'll be a good day for convection. Synoptics show a Maritime flow from the west following from the plume across the UK which has given us the exeptional heatwave over the past 3 days. With GFS giving moderate high precipitation totals along a trough boundary from northern Scotland into Wales the cells should start initiating throughout the early morning from rising temperatures from the slack high pressure ridge building back up.

This area in question is already largely situated across central Ireland and will no doubt move further east as the CF transitions across over southeast England and eventually into the continent by the midnight hours. This leaves the slack ridge building firmly in place behind and transitioning westerly winds ready for tomorrows set up.

The trough already evident on the Meto Surface Pressure charts. From Midday Weds until Midnight crossing Northern/Central parts of the UK.

http://www.infomet.am.ub.es/metoffice/mosaic.html

http://www.sat24.com/gb

Edited June 28, 2011 by SNOW_JOKE

[Coast]

Looking like a quiet period coming up again, maybe a slim chance the further North you go later today:

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I think next week looking good for my area, slack low pressure, could be heavy thundery showers anywhere, I missed it during mon-tues, no thunder at all

certainly thunder at wimbledon yesterday

[Nick F]

GFS indicates some CAPE across eastern Scotland and eastern Eire this afternoon, so heavy showers look to develop here with a rumble or two of thunder possible. Elsewhere the cloud will bubble up across England and Wales, though showers will generally be light here, but one or two sharper ones across E Midlands, Lincs, Norfolk area perhaps?

[Stuart]

my eyes down for for today will i see a storm today or not so i just have to see

[lewisosd]

Lovely convective clouds out there today. Very photogenic. I'm banking on some rain for my area later. No storms though me thinks.

[stickfloat]

There sure looks like there is a bit of bubbling up going on here in the Emids, whether it comes to anything I don't know. Saw the odd flash n rumble after midnight on monday/Tues but nothing since. I need a good storm!

Edited June 29, 2011 by stickfloat

[Phelpsy]

some great convection around here today that started building from when i looked out about half 7 this morning. Just had a heavy downpour but nothing solid

[paul m]

Just taken dog out and wish i had taken my camera as the cloud formations are suberb

[ZONE 51]

keeping watch for thursday...no not storms like tuesday though, but...wait til updates tonight we shall see..

Edited June 29, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Coast]

keeping watch for thursday...no not storms like tuesday though, but...wait til updates tonight we shall see..

Mmmmm, ESTOFEX going with that too:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 30 Jun 2011 06:00 to Fri 01 Jul 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 29 Jun 2011 22:00

Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 2 was issued for south-western Russia and north-eastern Ukraine mainly for excessive precipitation and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for western Russia, Belarus, the Baltic States and southern Finland mainly for excessive rain and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for Southern Poland to the northern Balkans mainly for large hail.

A level 1 was issued for Italy and the southern Balkans mainly for large hail.

A level 1 was issued for eastern Spain mainly for large hail and excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

Low geopotential extends from the North Sea to the Black Sea. A north-westerly jet affects most of the Mediterranean. Over north-eastern Europe, a high is present.

and the UKASF:

Forecaster: Chris

Last Updated: 20:06 Wednesday, 29th June 2011

Valid: 06:06 Thursday, 30th June 2011 - 05:07 Friday, 1st July 2011

Areas Affected:

E Scotland, N and E England

Discussion:

Upper trough axis will move across the watch area during the day with 500mb temperatures within it in the range of -23C to -26C. This along with daytime heating/insolation should be enough to provide 300-400j/kg of CAPE and allow for a few sharp showers that will transfer west to east across the watch area through the day. It should be noted that the same airmass did not produce thunder on Wednesday, so potential for isolated thundery showers is pretty low (30%). Showers may get extra lift from terrain and any local convergence which is indicated to occur along the E coast of England later in the afternoon. Both DLS and LLS will be very weak, so storms will be diurnally driven pulse type storms with the only possibility of cold air funnels coming from surface convergence boundaries and even then these will be brief/weak.

Main threats: brief heavy downpours and small hail.

TORRO and SkyWarn have nothing for today so far.

Certainly looks like a low possibility of something on the East side right into Scotland, Stuart, this could be your day!

[Nick F]

Storm forecast for today, some in eastern Scotland and eastern England should see something this afternoon: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

[weatherobsuk]

Moderate rainfall at 0940am for some time before finally moving off Eastwards, was quite unexpected hearing that amount of rain so early on in the day but bodes well for the watches and risk area given to the Eastern side of the UK.

The trough will be over the Midlands by Midday so some spectacular skyscapes should be had (fingers crossed) from the setting sun later on past the evening hours as it progresses Southeast, and everyone else westerly being in the clear building high ridge again.

[Stuart]

I hope so coast been a lot of let down this year so far only had 1 storm and time running out before i move

Edited June 30, 2011 by Stuart

[Alex95]

Just had a really heavy shower, and the radar is looking more interesting now. Its the type of day where there could be the odd rumble of thunder in the showers, but I doubt there'll be any significant storms around this afternoon.

[Joanna Fulcher]

Convection here in west London is pretty amazing to look at today. Very pretty with all that instibility up there!

[Sprites]

Some ok convection earlier, but too much ridging and an inversion for much action i would say... :o

[Alex95]

Just had a rumble of thunder in another heavy shower. Some spectacular cloudscapes today!

Edited June 30, 2011 by alza

[Coast]

I have to say the skies are more conducive to something today than they were at the beginning of the week! Quite impressive structures here in Sussex currently

[lewisosd]

Some ok convection earlier, but too much ridging and an inversion for much action i would say... :o

Agree there Sprites. Cloudscapes are lovely today. Seen one earlier that looked like an atom bomb had gone off! Wish I had my camera with me. If it does happen think we would possibly only get a rumble of thunder.

[Guest Quantumsnow]

I have to say the skies are more conducive to something today than they were at the beginning of the week! Quite impressive structures here in Sussex currently

Roger that Coast, seen some great clouds on my travels around West Sussex today

Edited June 30, 2011 by Quantumsnow

[Greeny]

Small storm near me at the moment. Nothing to write home about but better than nothing. The odd rumble of thunder heard whilst waking up from a rare afternoon nap about 30 minutes ago. Clouds outside are nice and grey with a nice squall line visible.

[Carl]

Just had a rumble of thunder in another heavy shower. Some spectacular cloudscapes today!

Something meaty looking heading in over the west end from the West.. should be with you shortly, sky is almost black!

Huge hailstone now falling in west end of Newcastle. Sky is black!

Newcastle, 5 mins ago...

[P-M]

Here's a couple of pics from the shower moving in. Heavy hail falling now and quite strong down draft but no thunder heard yet!

[Carl]

Here's a couple of pics from the shower moving in. Heavy hail falling now and quite strong down draft but no thunder heard yet!

I'm just a few mins further west than you so am now getting fairly heavy and persistent rain. No thunder or lightning.