El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion 4

[Craigers]

Havnt seen this much lightning for like 5 years. In frequent though

[bobbydog]

Whats that starting to show up in the english channel on the radar

thats the french storms which will be lucky if they brush the kent coast on their current trajectory

[andy_leics22]

You got anything there

Nah, had some moderate rain earlier for about 20 mins, no thunder though.

[paul m]

Its slowly creeping up on Le Havre. Id love to be on a ferry heading that way

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

im off to bed you loverly people! 'Hardcore Storm Chasers' we should have our own thread with a logo just like NSC haha

Good luck to those in Kent, I hope the wind shifts northward so we would all get something. If something happens im sure I will wake up.

I am even going to take my camera with me to bed lol

Night! and if nothing happens theres always next time... in 5 years...

Well I have stayed up this late going to see it out just hoping it tracks North as the ukmo charts were showing this evening.

[paul m]

Havnt seen this much lightning for like 5 years. In frequent though

Im seeing that from all the way over in Leeds

[bobbydog]

Havnt seen this much lightning for like 5 years. In frequent though

shut up! or the whole of the south east of england will come and get you!

[paul m]

shut up! or the whole of the south east of england will come and get you!

The thing is this was not in the forecast it was you lot who were supposed to be having fun

[Craigers]

shut up! or the whole of the south east of england will come and get you!

It was very localised with the view to the north east so pot luck really. Kent should see somthing at least!

[Dave Clarke]

The MCS is still clinging on with about 95 sflocs in 5 mins, it's at the northern French coast now, getting ready to dip it's toes in the Channel, just hope the lot from UK Border Force don't turn it back

[bobbydog]

grrr! dont make me come up there!!! :aggressive::diablo:

[paul m]

forecast is not too bad 20c up here at least all that humid air will be gone

Well thats it for me. Tonight has been very interesting with the distant flashes and rumbles. Good luck for those down south hope it gives you a good show. Goodnight from the north

[NorthYorksWeather]

After a long nights storm chase finally found some thunder and lightning, drove between York and Beverley, saw around 10-15 flashes with torrential rain at times.

Brilliant

[Roger J Smith]

Updated alert for Kent and east Sussex -- 0400 to 0800 thunderstorm potential

___________________________________________________________________________

First, a look ahead and then a post mortem on the generally lack-lustre (non)-events of Monday.

The MCS moving through north central France has plenty of frontal support and seems (70%) likely to hold together and make its way across the Channel arriving in Kent and possibly brushing parts of east Sussex, Surrey and southeast London late tonight and early morning. Once it does arrive it could last 3-5 hours and produce some good lightning and welcome downpours. What's left of the front in eastern England will gradually be absorbed into this MCS feature and prolong the rainfall to mid-day in some parts of Kent and east Anglia. There is potential for 20-30 mms of rain with this and some intense lightning.

Now for a post mortem on the Monday (non) developments. First of all, the front itself performed about as expected and would have gone largely un-noticed if the pre-frontal trough had fired off heavy or severe storms in England as widely predicted. So it wasn't a case of the front "stealing the energy" or anything like that, it was definitely a case of cap failing to break over the trough. There was a similar failure in most of northern France except for some seabreeze-assisted cells near Nantes mid-afternoon and later one or two powerful cells that erupted north of Paris and moved towards Belgium. These managed to break the cap and underwent explosive development.

Looking at the eastern England non-event (on Monday, we still have this next round to go) I think the most absent of variables was strong winds in lower levels between 700 mbs and 925 mbs or let's say 3000 m down to near hilltop heights. There was good upper level wind and the surface was definitely unstable and heated enough, but in between there was a sluggish southwest flow that lacked wind shear and enough transport to get the upward motion started. The cirrus shield from the decaying MCS was an added inhibiting factor.

Shaping of the cloud masses was about as expected for the heavy thunderstorm complex to develop, but with the cap holding firm, it stayed mainly SC and AC/AS type cloud well under the altitudes needed for thunderstorm development. The front itself performed reasonably well and continues to fire off a few moderate storms. The situation in France was also not that helpful to explosive development, temperatures reached 36 C ahead of the pre-frontal trough and dew points were only 12-14 C in the zone where the seabreeze front TRW- might have exploded (around Le Mans) so these cells struggled and almost died completely around Paris before their remnants finally managed to break the cap.

Now we'll see if the potential of this developing frontal contrast can be realized despite the late night hour, sometimes these frontal waves can deliver the goods at 0500h or so, and I think the chances are about 70% that Kent will get a good lightning display at the very least. Once this complex gets going, it could suck in the remnants of the front and set off parallel bands of TRW in East Anglia.

The HIRLAM model actually did quite well with this evolution and I would continue to consult it for further developments today.

[gottolovethisweather]

Updated alert for Kent and east Sussex -- 0400 to 0800 thunderstorm potential

___________________________________________________________________________

First, a look ahead and then a post mortem on the generally lack-lustre (non)-events of Monday.

Hi Roger,

Thanks a bundle for this, even though I understand just some certain aspects of what you have said, a synopsis on any event/non-event is always welcome!

Cheers again and here's to next time.

gottolovethisweather

PS! I hope some folk got some compensation and may well still get a little something yet!

[Sprites]

Shame all the CAPE wasnt able to be tapped into, im glad the heat and humidity has gone ,it was awful, better luck next time!

[SimonP]

Had some thunder here (distant, no lightning witnessed) and raining - cold front passing through?

[Grazy2266]

Some nice lightning and thunder here in Buckinghamshire

[we1330]

Some nice lightning and thunder here in Buckinghamshire

Currently?

[Polar Bear]

__________________________________________________________________________

First, a look ahead and then a post mortem on the generally lack-lustre (non)-events of Monday.

Hi Roger,

Thanks a bundle for this, even though I understand just some certain aspects of what you have said, a synopsis on any event/non-event is always welcome!

Cheers again and here's to next time.

gottolovethisweather"

PS! I hope some folk got some compensation and may well still get a little something yet!

HI GTLTW

Yes I like Roger's comments and always like to hear them no matter how far away he he takes a good interest. thanks Roger...he could be right this morn for the far se corner today though

Now can you confirm..I dont know what time it was but there was definately two rumbles of thunder last night.........

PB

Edited June 28, 2011 by Polar Bear

[Polar Bear]

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/125305.aspx

Oh the environment agency are worrired abut flash floods this afternoon for se and east anglia...

[95 Degrees]

On updates it looks like we can expect something afternoon/early evening, does like like it'll never come though!

[we1330]

Thunder heard to the SW of St. Ives...

[NO LONGER POSTING]

cant really see anything happening today :S

[essex coast matt]

They saying it only be 23c here today, underdone me thinks,by mid morning it be around 25c rekcon, with showers by midday, 20.2c at mo with a dew of 18.3c still well and truely in the thundery air here.