El Gordo! - Spanish Plume Thunderstorm Discussion

[Coast]

Please use this thread to specifically discuss the possibilities for convective activity during Monday and Tuesday next week. As the day arrives this may get merged back into the main thread to keep observations and reports in one place.

Here is the definitive guide by Nick F: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/29497-a-guide-to-uk-thunderstorm-setups/

[Jane Louise]

It's certainly looking promising! I shall be eagerly following the charts up to the run up but as we all know it can all change. It's great to see the potential there at least.

[WillinGlossop]

If those Cape and Li charts for tuesday did come to fruition then we could expect some extreme thunderstorms....MSC look possibility. Looking on google, Cape values above 2500 and li above -6 can help to form thunderstorms that can produce 60mph+ gusts, golfball sized hail and torndaoes...

This is IF though as GFS will back track from that id of thought..... but nice looking chart....would end drought in E Anglia Id of thought, well probably flood the area.....

Nice and warm 23c here, starting to have clouds build here at mo..... looking 4ward to weekend of possibly 30c+ with the wind etc, this part of kent is usually a hot spot..... a nice 34c for monday/tuesday and min temps of 18-22c would feel very summery

[Coast]

Here's one from the latest run to get the storm juices flowing:

Oww I feel dirty now...... :blush:

[WillinGlossop]

this would be amazing if it were to happen.....

lookslike a turkey as a small snap!

Edited June 23, 2011 by willinkent44

[Dorsetbred]

Ok so when do we start the virtual chase thread?

I think I'll park up in Downham Market leisure centre car park and see where we go from there!

[Staffordshire]

Praying that this will drift westward is there a big chance or is it minscule? I'd love to get in on the action as all the thundery activity seems to be reserved for east anglia/easy middlands an I'm sure Jane Louise wouldn't mind either !

Edited June 23, 2011 by Staffordshire

[DanN]

Looks like some deep layer shear showing on the charts for Monday along with the jet (maybe a bit west of the CAPE bullseye) but something interesting perhaps?

[knocker]

Being only Thursday I've grave doubts about this. I wonder whether those dew point figures will prove correct? I suspect not.

Edited June 23, 2011 by weather ship

[DanN]

You may end up correct but it's not too often we get to discuss charts like that! It's been showing for a few days but we all know that could vanish at any time.

Being only Thursday I've grave doubts about this. I wonder whether those dew point figures will prove correct? I suspect not.

[Harry]

Being only Thursday I've grave doubts about this. I wonder whether those dew point figures will prove correct? I suspect not.

I don't doubt there'll be a downgrade in terms of the specific data...I'm more intrigued about the location factor. It is rare for the UK even during plumes to get much higher than 1500 to 2000 J/Kg SBCape. 3000J/Kg in 6 years of frequenting this forum I am yet to see.

Dew points though of above 18C though are not that far fetched, in the SE at any rate. In a typical plume, dew points can routinely settle between 12 and 17C...this is a very deep plume. On the current models (current needs emphasising) we have moisture and heat being pumped out of the Mediterranean by the trough over Spain and the High centred over C/E Europe.

Nevertheless I agree, I suspect actual figures (again, HEAVILY subject to positioning and eventual situation regarding synoptics) will read anything up to 1800-2000 J/Kg CAPE, LI figures of -4 or -5 with dew points in the centre of the plume circa 15-18C. That does not mean however the progged figures cannot happen.

[dave48]

Of course the current CAPE values are very unlikely as it goes a little crazy on the dew points but I do think that if this set up holds up then there could well be up to 1500J/kg in CAPE.

That seems to have every so often with a few notable examples in the RMetS journal 'Weather'.

Based on the current output this will be in an environment that is supportive to longer lasting storms.

There are two issues that are of concern when forecasting here. Firstly, of course, the potential for downgrades or an easterly shift, limiting potential to the far SE or the continent. The second issue being that the actual weather events cause a problem with the forecast, for example an overnight MCS could leave a lot of cloud and murk, limiting the next days insolation, etc etc.

I am looking forward to this afternoons models and how they compare, particulary the extent to which ECMWF carries on with it's thundery outlook.

EDIT: Would agree with Harry's comments, DP's could reach 18 which would have great results. But yes current DP projections from GFS are way too high.

Edited June 23, 2011 by dave48

[paul m]

With all the charts as they are is Leeds in the firing line. (sorry still a bit of a newbie concerning the charts)

Edited June 23, 2011 by paul m

[Staffordshire]

With all the charts as they are is Leeds in the firing line. (sorry still a bit of a newbie concerning the charts)

Same I have no idea about my area either

[Harry]

Based on the current charts (I cannot emphasise the word CURRENT enough as they can change significantly in the space of a few hours) I'd say Sunday and Monday looking good for Leeds at the moment (risk circa 40-50%)

[Staffordshire]

Based on the current charts (I cannot emphasise the word CURRENT enough as they can change significantly in the space of a few hours) I'd say Sunday and Monday looking good for Leeds at the moment (risk circa 40-50%)

How about me?

[paul m]

Based on the current charts (I cannot emphasise the word CURRENT enough as they can change significantly in the space of a few hours) I'd say Sunday and Monday looking good for Leeds at the moment (risk circa 40-50%)

I know the charts will probably downgrade but its looking rather impressive at the moment

[Stormyking]

Interesting times ahead, at the moment our best chance of seeing storms here would be Monday night, my fingers are crossed and good luck to everyone!

Still a while off but just going to remain positive

This would be pretty amazing if this came off!

Edited June 23, 2011 by Stormyking

[Biggin]

As the excellent thread title says (El Gordo) it will be a bit of a lottery re who wins.. At the risk of Backtracks wrath, currently it will be the South, SouthEast, Central and NE England in the firing line (currently). But anyone not in that area, the charts still have some good storm potential for those areas, its just with exceptional chances in some places the other areas shouldnt dismiss the existing potential elsewhere, esp as it is 3+ days away. So chin up peeps.

Edited June 23, 2011 by Biggin

[Summer Sun]

Interesting times ahead, at the moment our best chance of seeing storms here would be Monday night, my fingers are crossed and good luck to everyone!

Still a while off but just going to remain positive

This would be pretty amazing if this came off!

Sorry but this is all new to me, could some one please explain what the above means?

Edited June 23, 2011 by Gavin D

[Radiating Dendrite]

Sorry but this is all new to me, could some one please explain what the above means?

It basically indicates the amount of energy (cape) and instability (lift) that there is in the atmosphere.

Lift or -8 and Cape of 2500 is huge for the UK!

It means big thunderstorms (if it happens as shown in the chart), maybe even a supercell!

[Staffordshire]

Here's praying it shifts a good 120 miles west! any chance of it?

Edited June 23, 2011 by Staffordshire

[Stormyking]

It basically indicates the amount of energy (cape) and instability (lift) that there is in the atmosphere.

Lift or -8 and Cape of 2500 is huge for the UK!

It means big thunderstorms (if it happens as shown in the chart), maybe even a supercell!

Indeed, if any Storms did explode from that it would really explode big time.

It would be like a dream come true if you are storm fans.

[DanN]

It basically indicates the amount of energy (cape) and instability (lift) that there is in the atmosphere.

Lift or -8 and Cape of 2500 is huge for the UK!

It means big thunderstorms (if it happens as shown in the chart), maybe even a supercell!

Supercells would depend a lot on wind shear as well.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Supercells would depend a lot on wind shear as well.

Yes that is true.

In terms of energy and lift though, we could have enough, especially if the high dew points come off!