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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Weather Online's monthly outlook

Spring warmth?

Issued: Friday 22nd March 2013

Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

Winters are now what they used to be - but there are signs of a late spring

Well, you can't any longer say that winters aren't the same as they used to be and it is also a salient fact and reminder that you do have to be careful for what you wish for....as you may just get it?

This winter although not as 'brutal' as it can be, has perhaps sharpened ones perception that nature has the upper hand and in many aspects of our daily lives and that cyclical swings in the major overall pattern continue to deliver this reminder. It does seem that in the short term at least, spring will be as elusive as ever, however there have been consistent hints that as we move into the beginning of April that temperatures and the pattern will alter, this alteration for the milder and for a time generally unsettled, from mid-April high pressure looks to be building back quite strongly, so a return to dry but more spring-like anticyclonic conditions is anticipated

23/3/13 to 31/3/13*

Through the short term high pressure and its associated pattern block will remain the determining feature close to the north or northeast of the UK, this'll ensure that for much of the country the flow will be originating from a still very cold continental or polar source brought in on a mainly easterly to north-easterly breeze, which at times will be rather brisk, accentuating the cold feel to the conditions. They'll be a wintry mixture wrapped up in this flow, with the risk of accumulations in many places.

Through to the end of the month it looks to be remaining cold and mainly anticyclonic in influence, but a trend towards drier and brighter conditions with sharp overnight frosts and an easterly component to the flow remaining in force, this gradually easing down later.

*1/4/13 to 7/4/13*

If I had to 'hang my hat' on any 'date peg' when the pattern will alter, then I believe it to be around the first week of April, when high pressure begins to shift its influence to the west or southwest, still remaining as a ridge into the western UK, but as this pulls away a more Atlantic north-westerly then westerly sets in over its northern flank. Cloud, patchy rain and less cold Atlantic air moving east and southeast through all areas.

*8/4/13 to 14/4/13*

Through to the period just prior to mid-April it looks as if it'll be generally unsettled through most areas, at times windy in the west and northwest. Outbreaks of rain moving through all regions followed by blustery and heavy showers, brought in on a mainly westerly to at times south-westerly flow, temperatures holding up well and much milder when compared to recent values. Some hints of drier conditions to the east and southeast with weak higher pressure over the near continent exerting an influence.

*15/4/13 to 25/4/13*

From mid-April there are quite strong hints that we will again see high pressure building into a large feature, initially over southern Britain but a large and slow moving anticyclone may take up station over the UK. This anticyclone looks set to dominate the middle part of the month, bringing all areas a fine spell of quite pleasant spring weather, the clear skies associated with this high bringing long spells of sunshine, temperatures responding as a result. Spring at last in its 'true' form perhaps?

Simon & Capn Bob

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=monthahead&DAY=20130322

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Aerial video shows cars buried in snow in Cumbria

Aerial footage showed cars, trucks and vans completely buried under snow drifts in Cumbria, after blizzard conditions on Friday and overnight into Saturday.

Snow, sleet and rain have disrupted transport and power supplies in much of the UK.

A number of roads and airports have closed, with many of the weekend's sporting fixtures affected too.

Snow is falling across central and northern parts of the country and it is expected to spread to the South and South East of England.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21910180

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Thousands stranded in snow chaos: Drivers rescued from 15 FOOT drifts and trains delayed as Britain freezes in freak spring weather

http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz2ONNaoknS

Edited by Gavin.
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

I see our beloved BBC (ha!) can't even get the basics facts right of this cold spell.

  • Average temperature is currently around 3C - normally should be nearer 6C
  • Coldest March on record was in 1962 with a mean temperature of 1.9C, which will not be
Firstly the current CET is around 0C not 3C and is forecast to be so for several days so we are running around 6C below the CET for the time of year.

Secondly 1962 actually had a CET of 2.8C and was the 16th coldest March on record.

The mean of 1.9C they quote was achieved back in 1883!

If we get below the CET of 2.8C of 1962 then it will be the coldest March since 1892 with a CET of 2.7C as all colder CET's are from the sixteen, seventeen and eighteen hundreds,

So the BBC somewhat underplaying the strength and historic nature of the cold this March. (That's as nicely as I can put it - pretty pathetic really)

Links.

BBC article.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21907837

All data taken from Met Office figures.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Firstly the current CET is around 0C not 3C and is forecast to be so for several days so we are running around 6C below the CET for the time of year.

The current CET to March 22nd is around 3.6c

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

The current CET to March 22nd is around 3.6c

You're worse than the BBC Gavin!Posted Image

You need to read both the BBC statement and figures quoted along with my post more carefully. (Not related but this why subtle propaganda can be so effective because subtle disinformation resonates as statements of fact to those who do not pay attention to detail)

Although you are correct about the current CET for March you are also quoting something that does not refute anything I have posted and certainly does not make the BBC statement and figures any less inaccurate.

I will concede though that perhaps I did not make clear enough that "current CET" in my post refers to the current daily CET not monthly as relevant to the article quoted.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Northern Lake District. 150m asl
  • Location: Northern Lake District. 150m asl

The mean of 1.9C they quote was achieved back in 1883!

I

I think they are quoting the UK mean temp for 1962, not the CET value http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt

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Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport

I'd imagine the BBC are using UK figures rather than CET figures. Considering UK (as a whole) temperatures only go back to the early 20th Century the "coldest March on record in 1962" statement makes sense. The 1.9C figure also makes sense as a UK temperature, Scotland and northern England nearly always drag the UK temp down below that of the CET zone.

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You're worse than the BBC Gavin!Posted Image

You need to read both the BBC statement and figures quoted along with my post more carefully. (Not related but this why subtle propaganda can be so effective because subtle disinformation resonates as statements of fact to those who do not pay attention to detail)

Although you are correct about the current CET for March you are also quoting something that does not refute anything I have posted and certainly does not make the BBC statement and figures any less inaccurate.

I will concede though that perhaps I did not make clear enough that "current CET" in my post refers to the current daily CET not monthly as relevant to the article quoted.

And are you going to apologise for misrepresenting the BBC and spreading misinformation around the internet? Edited by RRW14
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Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

Without a doubt that is the best drifting I have seen on TV in the UK since the 1970/80's. Memorable television and newspapers indeed. I don't think we will see the likes of this winter again for a long time. Make the most of such good footage folks.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC weather for the week ahead it looks like milder air will try to fringe in from the south west by the end of the week bringing rain with it and some where will see snow where remains uncertain at this stage

But it does look like milder air is going to have a go later this week so watch this space somewhere could be in for heavy snow it all depends on where the battleground sets up

Posted Image

Edited by Gavin.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC weather for the week ahead

First half of the week

Staying very cold

Bitter wind

Risk of Further snow

End of the Week

Increasing risk of Snow

Milder air moving into the south west

http-~~-//youtu.be/_QqEwsotcAY

Edited by Gavin.
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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

First a white Easter - then the heatwave? Snow and ice set to last all week but sunshine could be next

Authorities have warned drivers and pedestrians to be aware of black ice

Freezing weather conditions are continuing to cause disruption today as forecasters predicted that icy temperatures and snow showers could last right up until Easter Day. Many roads across Britain remain impassable and thousands of homes are still without power after heavy snow and blizzard conditions deluged the UK over the weekend. Authorities have warned drivers and pedestrians to be aware of the possibility of black ice during the morning commute.

Forecasters have also warned that there is no immediate end to the icy conditions in sight with the cold weather and snow expected to last into the weekend. Despite an end to the heavy snow, forecasters say the severe weather could return on Good Friday. The current forecast suggests that Britain could experience its first white Easter in five years. But despite the continuing disruption forecasters have said the weather pattern bringing icy conditions to the UK could next month provide the country with higher-than-average temperatures - with some reports claiming Britain could be hit by a heatwave towards the end of spring.

The three-month forecast from the Met Office states that the freezing conditions in Britain are being caused by a so-called 'blocking pattern' of high pressure bringing in cold winds from Scandinavia. The forecast suggests that if the blocking pattern were to shift slightly south it could bring "warmer-than-average conditions to northern Europe and the UK." for now, though, several thousand households in Scotland remain without electricity today, down from a peak of about 18,000. The isle of Arran and parts of the south-west mainland of Scotland were particularly badly hit by power cuts on Friday.

Blizzard conditions also lashed Northern Ireland, where emergency oxygen supplies had to be airlifted to an elderly man who was trapped by heavy snow. Meanwhile, in Northern Ireland customers were warned that it could be days before electricity was restored to homes, as the bad weather looked set to continue. Hundreds of people in Cumbria also remain without power. At least two deaths are thought to have been connected to the cold weather.

A man found dead in deep snow after he started walking home in severe weather was named by police. The body of Gary Windle, 25, was found by a farmer in Brierfield, near Burnley, Lancs, at around 1.30pm on Saturday.

Severe weather is also thought to have led to the death of a woman in Cornwall on Friday. The woman, named locally as Susan Norman, died when her house in Looe, Cornwall, collapsed during a landslip following torrential rain. North East Wales was badly hit by snow over the weekend, with up to 6,000 homes in Denbighshire left without electricity after trees brought down power lines. According to reports this morning a family with a baby trapped in a hillside farm near Corwen were forced to burn furniture to keep warm after they were marooned without power.

The Met Office still has sweeping yellow weather warnings in place across Wales, central and northern England and southern Scotland, advising of the danger of ice. The warning said: "Lying snow in many areas will melt on roads and pavements by day, refreezing by night to give icy patches. "The public should be aware of the potential for disruption to travel due to icy patches and snow blowing back onto roads."

Andy Ratcliffe, a forecaster for MeteoGroup, the weather division for the Press Association, said: "Today the snow will be mainly confined to the east of Scotland and north-east England where there will be a dusting, but nothing significant. "Elsewhere there will be some snow showers but nothing like the accumulations we've seen over the last few days and it will remain very cold and breezy. "Into the week there will be more scattered snow flurries but there is potential for more widespread snow returning at the end of the week."

http://www.independe...xt-8547861.html

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

White Easter Looms As Cold Snap Continues

http://uk.news.yahoo...54.html#SOorJhX

Coldest Easter EVER: Arctic misery set to last a week as temperatures drop to -15C

http://www.express.c...res-drop-to-15C

FROZEN TO DEATH IN 4 MINUTES

http://www.dailystar...h-in-4-minutes/

Britain stuck in icy grip freeze could last 3 weeks

THE cold snap gripping Britain could go on for another THREE weeks, weathermen grimly warned yesterday. The chilliest March for 50 years will see temperatures dive to -5°C this week. And the Met Office confirmed: “There’s no heatwave in sight.â€

http://www.thesun.co...l#ixzz2OYPPFdHR

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Prof Sir John Beddington warns of floods, droughts and storms

The government's chief scientist has said that there is already enough CO2 in the atmosphere for there to be more floods and droughts over the next 25 years. Prof Sir John Beddington said there was a "need for urgency" in tackling climate change. He said that the later governments left it, the harder it would be to combat. Prof Beddington made his comments in the final week of his tenure as the government's chief scientific adviser. "The [current] variation we are seeing in temperature or rainfall is double the rate of the average. That suggests that we are going to have more droughts, we are going to have more floods, we are going to have more sea surges and we are going to have more storms.

"These are the sort of changes that are going to affect us in quite a short timescale," he warned. Prof Beddington's comments come at a time when so-called "climate sceptics" have been challenging claims by scientists that the release of CO2 into the atmosphere is increasing global temperatures. Other critics have argued that even if the burning of fossil fuels is changing the planet's climate, the reduction of CO2 levels by the world's emerging nations is unrealistic, impractical and undesirable. Prof Beddington's blunt response is: "The evidence that climate change is happening is completely unequivocal." But the issue, he says has been clouded by the fact that the planet's climate system operates slowly to changes and so there are long delays in CO2 level rises in the atmosphere resulting in changes to weather patterns.

"So the next 20 or 30 years are going to be determined by what's up there now." Governments have agreed to try to keep the rise in average global temperatures to below 2C. Given the slow progress in attempts to curb CO2 emissions at successive climate change talks, many experts believe that target to be unrealistic. Prof Beddington made his comments in a wide ranging interview with BBC News to coincide with the end of his tenure as the government's chief scientific adviser.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-21357520

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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

Without a doubt that is the best drifting I have seen on TV in the UK since the 1970/80's. Memorable television and newspapers indeed. I don't think we will see the likes of this winter again for a long time. Make the most of such good footage folks.

this was common in the 80s so we may be back in a colder stage,i guess 2010 would have been very bad had the wind blown.may be like this next year.last time it was like this in these parts was 1995
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Spring snow: Thousands of animals feared dead

Farmers fear that thousands of sheep and cattle have died in the snow that has hit in recent days. Northern Ireland farmer Catherine Crawford said: "There are hundreds of farmers who have sheep buried." "We are very, very, anxious," said Carolyn Lamb from NFU Scotland, who added that the full toll would not be known until the snow melted. The NFU said hundreds of animals were lost in England and Wales, with Cumbria and Shropshire worst hit. "There are animals going to die here and are dying; we need help out in the rural areas," said Ms Crawford. The late snow has hit during lambing season, "a key time for farmers", making the situation worse, the NFU said. Campbell Tweed, a farmer from Cairncastle near Larne in County Antrim, said some of his sheep were getting their first feed in four days. "Road conditions are just incredibly bad. There's places where the snow at the side of the road is higher than the vehicles. It's coming late in a very, very tough winter - it's just putting the tin hat on it for many of us."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21933135

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Rain and weak pound hurts Kingfisher profits

Wet weather and a weak pound sent annual profits at B&Q owner Kingfisher sliding by 13pc, with the retailer warning that it expects markets to remain challenging.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/9953919/Rain-and-weak-pound-hurts-Kingfisher-profits.html

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Edit: Sorry this story was posted yesterday i noticed.

Weather latest: Snow and ice will linger all week - but forecasters hold out hope for an April heatwave

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/weather-latest-snow-and-ice-will-linger-all-week--but-forecasters-hold-out-hope-for-an-april-heatwave-8547861.html

and to counteract these 'reports' - the met office news blog article dated 25/03/2013....explaining that the information used in articles are not weather forecasts.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/

Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK snow: Weather prompts escape to foreign shores

There has been a surge in the number of Britons heading abroad for Easter as they seek to escape the freezing and snowy weather, tourism operators say. The Association of British Travel Agents said there was "strong demand" for last-minute overseas holidays. It comes as thousands of homes remain without power in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales following snow storms that began last Friday. The Met Office said further snow was expected in some parts this week. It said snow showers would continue to affect parts of central and eastern Scotland, south-eastern areas of Northern Ireland, north-east England and the north-east Midlands into Wednesday.

'Sunshine destinations'

With the four-day break over Easter approaching, travel agents said the unseasonably cold weather was turning Britons towards foreign shores. The Association of British Travel Agents' Sean Tipton told the BBC its members were reporting "very strong demand for last-minute overseas holiday deals as customers look to escape the freezing temperatures in the UK". "Some members are reporting over 50% increases in demand year on year for certain sunshine destinations," he said. Mr Tipton said bookings for trips within the UK remained relatively "healthy", as city breaks were often less dependent on the weather. However, he added that "last-minute bookings for camping holidays will have been adversely affected" by the cold weather. Airports said the Easter period would be especially busy this year, with millions of travellers flying out of Britain to international destinations. Heathrow said it was preparing for its "busiest seven days of the year so far, with 1.2 million passengers expected to hop through Heathrow" between Thursday and next Tuesday. And a spokesman for Stansted Airport, in Essex, said that while it was hard to compare Easters - which fall on different dates each year - the airport was "expecting to be busier than the same time last year". "There will be 220,000 passengers departing and arriving from Friday to Monday," he said.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21936905

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Snow: RAF Helicopter Sent To Aid Families

An RAF Chinook helicopter has been called in to drop supplies to farmers and families cut off by huge snowdrifts as thousands of people face a fifth day without power in Northern Ireland. The mission - confirmed by the Ministry of Defence - forms part of an emergency operation to airlift fodder and provisions to the worst affected areas. Farmers have said the conditions, particularly in the Glens, are the worst in living memory. It follows a request for help by Northern Ireland Secretary Theresa Villiers - and is in addition to ongoing operations by police and mountain rescue teams to reach isolated farms. The severe weather has also caused outages in Scotland too. Scottish and Southern Energy said two of its pylons were toppled by sheets of ice and snow over the weekend in the worst damage to the electricity network in 30 years.

The provider said it was the first time in the company's history that two metal pylons had come down. The last time one was felled by severe weather was in 1987, in the north of Scotland. Some 3,300 customers in Kintyre, Argyll, and on the Isle of Arran remained cut off overnight. Meanwhile, the second of three tankers with gas supplies from Qatar has arrived in Wales - carrying 266,000 cubic metres of liquefied natural gas (LNG) - as the unseasonal cold weather increases demand and the UK dips into its energy reserves. Another is due to arrive on Friday, while a fourth which has already set sail from Trinidad is expected to reach the UK on Saturday. The number of people without power has reduced substantially since Friday, when stormy conditions plunged 18,000 people into darkness on the west coast of Scotland.

Arran suffered a complete blackout and mainland areas in Kintyre and Galloway were also badly affected. About 400 engineers are continuing efforts to restore supplies, with a further 100 working in support offices and others on stand-by. Scottish Power said last night that it had re-connected all of the affected properties in Galloway. Engineers' efforts have been hampered by heavy snow, high winds and blocked roads. A Scottish Power spokesman said: "Our engineers have encountered some of the most difficult conditions they have ever faced attempting to restore supplies."

http://news.sky.com/story/1069751/snow-raf-helicopter-sent-to-aid-families

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