843 replies to this topic

[Gavin D]

Please use this topic for the discussion of media related stories on the weather, they can be from either newspapers or online, anything that is NOT media related should be posted elsewhere in a relevant topic.

Found this on another forum, http://www.exactawea...e_Forecast.html - Could the UK be in for another very cold winter?

Edited by Gavin D, 06 June 2011 - 13:43 .

[Gavin D]

3 months’ rain in day for Brit ‘Sahara’

PARTS of the South had more rainfall in 24 hours than for the whole of spring, figures revealed yesterday. Despite the deluge, some southern counties have been so dry they could be classified as a DESERT. When the rain finally arrived on Sunday places like Kenley in Surrey got 38.4mm - 5.2mm more than the total for March, April and May together. But Norfolk, Suffolk and Cambridgeshire have been drier than the Sahara Desert. The three driest counties have received half their usual rainfall, with under 110mm. The Met Office predicts they will get less than 500mm of rain in the year - the classification of a semi-arid desert. Forecaster Dave Britton said: "Those parts of England have had their driest spring since our 1910 record series began."

Read more: http://www.thesun.co...l#ixzz1OaWB8bg0

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just a mile from Kenley. Spent all evening thinking "if only this was snow"! lol.

[Gavin D]

The drought is back, UK told Four regions to be given official drought status and have controls applied to water supply

Four major regions of the UK will be officially declared drought-stricken this week, in a move that is likely to see special powers introduced over water supplies on farms and businesses across large swaths of the country. Wales, the south-west, the Midlands and East Anglia will be raised to official drought status, enabling the government and water companies to invoke extra controls over water supplies as a lack of rain afflicts a huge band across the middle of the country. However, regions that have suffered drought in the past, such as Kent and the south-east, will be spared many of the restrictions as rainfall has been at normal or almost normal levels there in the past six months. Scotland and the north of England are also drought-free. Paul Leinster, chief executive of the Environment Agency, said this year would not see a repeat of the scenes of 1976, as some commentators have predicted, as last winter there was enough rain and snowfall to fill reservoirs.

But he added: "It depends on what we see this winter – next year could be the crunch year."The drought of 1976 followed a dry autumn and winter, during which stocks in reservoirs were severely depleted."We are in a much better position this year," he said. "Then, one of the big issues was that the previous year had been so dry, so you did not get a ground water recharge."Leinster added that the UK's water supply system had been made more resilient in the intervening decades. "We have learned lessons since then," he said. Although at present there are no domestic hosepipe bans in force in reaction to the drought, consumers may face restrictions if the dry weather continues.

http://www.guardian....drought-warning

[Gavin D]

SOGGY UK FACING DROUGHT

BRITAIN is still facing a drought despite the wettest week in more than four months. Central and eastern England have only had half the rainfall for June and monsoon-like deluges have not been enough to raise river levels after the exceptionally dry spring. Forecaster Jonathan Powell, of Positive Weather Solutions, said: “We would need to see at least two to three months of above-average rainfall to claw things back to where we should be, there is still a very long way to go.” The weather has played havoc with sporting schedules making the going wet for racegoers at Royal Ascot yesterday and threatening to put a dampener on the tennis at Wimbledon, which starts on Monday, and the Glastonbury festival.Tens of thousands of people heading to both events have been warned to expect “wet and windy” weather. The Met Office’s Andy Page said: “Unfortunately, after several years of mainly dry Wimbledon fortnights, this year’s tournament is likely to see more unsettled conditions with rain at times.”

Read more: http://www.express.c...-#ixzz1PdAqfrPp

[Gavin D]

Update from today,

Daily Express - BRITAIN FACES A WEEK OF DOWNPOURS - http://www.express.c...ek-of-downpours

[Gavin D]

Trust the Express to have a headline like this,

KILLER HEATWAVE

BRITAIN is braced for a weekend of “extreme” temperatures of up to 90F (32C) prompting health officials to issue an urgent heat warning. Forecasters warn that temperatures will climb “very quickly” to some of the hottest for five years, from 86F today to 90F by Monday. A Level 2 Heat-Health Alert has been issued by the Met Office and the Department of Health – with Level 4 being the highest – particularly for the South. Jonathan Powell, senior forecaster for Positive Weather Solutions, warned: “Extreme heat will cause problems for the elderly and young. “Heat stroke, dehydration and sunstroke are worries for people outdoors for long periods, such as fans at Glastonbury or Wimbledon.” Hospitals have been put on alert and nursing homes are being warned to take extra care to lessen the risk that soaring temperatures will affect the elderly and vulnerable.The hot snap – with humidity higher than in Singapore – has sparked fears that people could die.

In the 2003 heatwave 2,000 deaths were blamed on the weather. Experts warn that it is vital for all of us to try to stay cool, avoid direct sunlight if possible and keep hydrated. There will be little relief at night time either. Forecasters are warning of hot and sticky nights with temperatures in London not expected to drop below 63F tonight. Tomorrow it could settle at a thoroughly uncomfortable 68F. Patrick Sachon, head of health forecasting at the Met Office, said: “There is the possibility of daytime and night-time temperatures reaching trigger thresholds.

Full report here - http://www.express.c...sts/view/254888

[Coast]

Quote

Come rain or shine, they keep on forecasting

It's 150 years since the first public weather report. Paul Bignell and Matt Thomas mark a stormy history

Who would be a weather forecaster? The barrage of abuse, the outpouring of scorn that greet the men and women of the Met Office when their predictions are less than accurate is enough to put off the most committed of presenters. Yet, since the first public forecast, 150 years ago this summer, those indomitable weather men and women have carried on, come rain or shine, seeking to predict that most unpredictable of phenomena.

Next week the Royal Meteorological Society's annual conference will celebrate a century and a half of forecasting. From Vice-Admiral Robert FitzRoy's first storm warnings for shipping in 1861, to the latest scientific advances which allow us to receive five-day forecasts on our mobile phones, it has often been a tempestuous journey.

They are blamed for the merest wisp of cloud on a sky-blue sunny day or a spot of rain on a bank holiday when none has been foretold. Lynchings are darkly hinted at when Icelandic volcanoes ruin our summer holidays or droughts prevent us from watering our gardens.

Nobody remembers when they get it right – which they often do, particularly as technology and know-how have raised their game to stratospheric levels. No one needs a weatherman when the wind blows in the right direction, the saying goes. When it blows – strongly – in the wrong direction and they haven't predicted it, they are rarely forgiven. Just ask Michael Fish.

Today The Independent on Sunday recognises their achievements – and a few of their shortcomings. While Vice-Admiral FitzRoy would undoubtedly have applauded the improvement in the science of forecasting, it is anyone's guess what he would have made of the age of the ditzy weathergirl or of a dwarf explaining the weather on television while jumping on a trampoline.

1. The founding father of meteorology

Vice-Admiral Robert FitzRoy was Captain of HMS Beagle on Darwin's famous voyage and went on to become one of the founding fathers of meteorology. He headed the Meteorological Board of Trade, now known as the Met Office, the first dedicated weather forecasting outfit. In 1861, he began producing daily forecasts for shipping. These were later reproduced in newspapers. From the outset they attracted scorn and were attacked for being hokum and scientifically baseless. Ironically, despite saving many seafarers' lives with his forecasts, he couldn't save his own. The attacks prompted his depression and he committed suicide, aged 59.

2. Forecasting takes to the airwaves

On 14 November 1922, the BBC broadcast the first public radio weather bulletin. The script was prepared by the Met Office and an announcer read it. The next year, this became a daily service. From the beginning, farmers found the broadcasts very important, and in 1924 the first shipping forecast was broadcast to mariners.

3. Fisher, Dogger and German Bight

In 1924, the shipping forecast – with its hypnotic litany of sea area names from Biscay to Viking, preceded by "Sailing By", starts sending hundreds of thousands of BBC listeners a night to sleep.

4. Television's first weatherman

BBC executives decided to take the forecast further and the idea of presenting on television was born. Thirty-two-year-old George Cowling, a former RAF meteorologist, was the man chosen. And, on 11 January 1954, Cowling delivered the first televised weather forecast to the nation. It cost just £50, but it started a revolution.

5. Weathermen become presenters

In 1974 Barbara Edwards became the BBC's first female television weather presenter. The term "weathermen" had to be changed to "presenters" after she blazed a trail for females. Edwards later retreated to radio in frustration at the public criticism of her dress sense, which the male presenters escaped.

6. Michael Fish becomes a national hate figure

On 15 October 1987 hurricane-force winds hit southern England and northern France, causing the deaths of 18 people and costing the insurance industry £2bn. The weatherman Michael Fish was criticised for downplaying the severity of the conditions. He has since claimed that he was referring to the weather in Florida and went on to forecast storms in England.

7. Swede Ulrika Jonsson gets pulses racing

The svelte Swede first came to the attention of the public as a TV-AM weathergirl, particularly for her habit of breaking down in giggles. Critics claimed the choice was prompted more by beauty than brains and undermined the serious business of forecasting. Later presenters such as Lucy Verasamy would combine looks with a science degree.

8. Boscastle left submerged

In August 2004 flash floods in Boscastle, Cornwall, destroyed 100 homes and businesses and washed 75 cars out to sea. Forecasters failed to issue a weather warning that might have allowed the village to have been evacuated. Later the Met Office admitted that its five-day weather forecast was not accurate.

9. Met Office gets it completely wrong

Bournemouth's tourist board criticises the Met Office's "inaccurate and overcautious" forecasts of rain for May bank holiday 2009 resulting in 25,000 visitors cancelling visits. Having predicted a "barbecue summer", the Met Office is forced to defend itself when July and August turn out to be among the dampest on record.

10. Weatherman gives the finger

Tomasz Schafernaker was caught gesturing rudely onscreen to the BBC news anchor Simon McCoy in 2010. The Met Office weather presenter was responding to teasing about the inaccuracy of the forecast. He left the BBC later that year.

http://www.independe...ng-2302860.html

[ElectricSnowStorm]

over doing the weather talk? (note this is radio listeners complaining not the papers)
quote"Among the phrases seen as pretentious or nonsensical were ‘a weather front sitting down’, ‘a sandwich of weather today’ and ‘a little ribbon of cloud flirting with the South West’."

-
i can add a few myself...
how about..a weather front taking abreak..showers having a rest...sunshine for breakfast..thunderstorms for lunch..and sunshine for dinner..

-

it does not bother me what there complaining about with the sayings and that, its up to the forecaster to express it how they like, next their be told they are being boring in the forecast, now they say a few lines and they get moaned at, one thing is that the MetO and the BBC forecasters always get the stick..leave um alone or do the forecast ya selfs, thats all i say.

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm, 02 July 2011 - 02:42 .

[Gavin D]

Paul Hudson has updated his monthly forecast,

Unsettled June weather to extend into July

The jet stream which controls our weather is to blame, once again positioning itself to the south of the UK. It's still early days, but with the half way stage of summer approaching, so far only Piers Corbyn at Weather Action can claim any success with this summer's forecast. He argued consistently that Summer 2011 would be unsettled because of, in part, continued weak solar activity, which would at times push the Jet stream further south than normal. Longer term, heading towards mid-July, there are signs that although westerly winds will dominate, pressure may build in southern areas, leading to traditional set up across the UK.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...r-to-exte.shtml

[Gavin D]

Summer ‘coolest since ’91’

BRITAIN'S soggy summer has so far been the coolest for 20 years - with warnings of more unsettled weather to come. Temperatures in June averaged 13.8°, the Met Office said yesterday. with July averaging 15.8C.
Forecasters warn that if the rest of the month and August do not improve, the average for the whole summer from June to August will be just 15.1°C. That would make it the coldest summer overall since 1993, which averaged 14.9°C. This has also been the wettest since the 2007 washout and the dullest since 2008 based on the number of sunshine hours.

Rain has lashed down since the start of June, with 83.1mm on average across the UK - up around 15 per cent on usual with more following this month. The Met Office said temperatures will begin dropping tomorrow a with thunderstorms and prolonged rain Friday and at the weekend.

Forecaster Brian Gaze of The Weather Outlook said: "I expect the mixed summer to continue with a real mixed bag of washout days with torrential rain and dry days with pleasantly-warm sunshine."

http://www.thesun.co...l#ixzz1RnjGKxWm

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Gavin D, on 11 July 2011 - 13:01 , said:

Summer ‘coolest since ’91’

I'm confused now. Is this Climate Change or Global Warming ??

[Gavin D]

I think the question to ask is why the Jet stream continues to place it's self to far south nearly every summer since 2006, questions have to be asked as to why this is happening, is it as you say Climate Change or Global Warming or is it something completely different?

[ohno]

Gavin D, on 11 July 2011 - 13:24 , said:

I think the question to ask is why the Jet stream continues to place it's self to far south nearly every summer since 2006, questions have to be asked as to why this is happening, is it as you say Climate Change or Global Warming or is it something completely different?

Maybe we only notice the nice summers and ignore the countless summers where the Jet stream stays this far south? and thats just part of our weather in the UK?..

[THE EYE IN THE SKY]

ohno, on 11 July 2011 - 13:31 , said:

Maybe we only notice the nice summers and ignore the countless summers where the Jet stream stays this far south? and thats just part of our weather in the UK?..

I wouldn't say the position of the jet stream in recent years is normal for the UK. Since 2007 we have definitively seen a change with the jet stream being further S than normal. Furthermore blocking over Greenland especially during the winter has definitively increased. We have also seen a change in the AO which actually dropped to record breaking values during the winter of 2009/10.

In my opinion the low solar activity is responsible and if this continues to be quiet then colder winters, cooler/unsettled summers are going to become the norm over the next 10yrs. Maybe this is the real reason why the NW summer forecast has been inaccurate.

Edited by THE EYE IN THE SKY, 11 July 2011 - 19:43 .

[Polar Maritime]

Turnedoutniceagain, on 11 July 2011 - 13:15 , said:

I'm confused now. Is this Climate Change or Global Warming ??

When they realised they were wrong, instead of them changing it to Climate Cooling and looking realy stupid... They opted for Climate Change. Which to me is even more bizarre, as the Climate has and it always changing, And we will never be able to control it. TEITS may be onto something there regarding the summer forecast, this winters going to be an interesting one IF there's a pattern to follow...

Edited by snowrob, 11 July 2011 - 20:18 .

[EaasmanG]

What I think has happened in recent summers is that the weather patterns have simply become more "blocked in".

Looking through previous year's data, we did still of course get periods of boring, miserable cool cloudy weather, but they were much shorter, with intervening above average spells in between.

It's almost like all our weather has been dumbed down with far less striking temperature anomalies and changes from day to day / week to week.

In otherwords, particularly in summer, weather patterns have become more stubborn and less variable than they were. Of course, this June just gone did give us one little reminder of the past, with that plume of warm out of cold murky nothingness. But that type of shift in temperature used to be commonplace. Our weather is far less dynamic than it used to be, these days.

[ElectricSnowStorm]

THE EYE IN THE SKY, on 11 July 2011 - 19:42 , said:

I wouldn't say the position of the jet stream in recent years is normal for the UK. Since 2007 we have definitively seen a change with the jet stream being further S than normal. Furthermore blocking over Greenland especially during the winter has definitively increased. We have also seen a change in the AO which actually dropped to record breaking values during the winter of 2009/10.

In my opinion the low solar activity is responsible and if this continues to be quiet then colder winters, cooler/unsettled summers are going to become the norm over the next 10yrs. Maybe this is the real reason why the NW summer forecast has been inaccurate.

something thats been on my mind for ages(since winter) is that a bigger power is at work that is overriding data(teleconnections..), ok sounds strange and its hard to explain but something is causing the atmosphere to act unusual, to alter data outputs later or data is showing what should happen but it don't when it should,could this mean data is not picking up on this other power? the data outputs to make a lrf for example is as it is but without showing these other effects in the atmosphere that affects the weather much further down the line but the data won't pick this up?, i know how solar activity affects the jet stream and another cause being volcanic ash, but how it all alters the data is hard to explain. if i said its like an invisible data would that make sense? the inpact of solar activity is not to be brushed a side, we need to look closely at what the effects are on the jet streams and upper atmosphere, and the invisible effects of volcanic ash-it all goes somewhere and thats not down here, micro dust so tiny forming a layer or something, anyway il work out a way to explain my theory! i think TEITS is on to something anyway so im sure he would understand what i mean?

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm, 12 July 2011 - 01:09 .

[Solar Sausage]

It's amazing how a little bit of natural variation should trigger so many wild and wonderful 'theories', all claimed to be explanatory?

[THE EYE IN THE SKY]

Pete Tattum, on 12 July 2011 - 09:28 , said:

It's amazing how a little bit of natural variation should trigger so many wild and wonderful 'theories', all claimed to be explanatory?

I don't think it is natural variation. Our recent colder winters, cooler/unsettled summers are linked in my opinion. Im not sure why you say "wild and wonderful theories", it is widely accepted that the little ice age was caused by the maunder minimum.

Lets have a look at what can cause a sudden change in the climate.

1. Solar minimum.
2. Volcanic eruptions.
3. Shut down of the Gulf stream.

Now obviously the jet stream in summer normally does vary in its position and if it remains to the N of the UK this gives the Azores HP change to move in. What has not been normal in recent years is its persistant position being further S. This is why our longest hot spell this summer stands at 2 days!

Whilst I don't feel our recent volcanic eruptions have been strong enough to change our climate, the low solar activity has done and in my opinion will continue to do so!