39 replies to this topic

[Stu_London]

In response to the original poster, I doubt any changes in the NAD are responsible for the coldish winters of 08/09, 09/10 and the extremely cold start to 10/11.

A more acceptable theory for me, although by no means proven is that the Northern Hemisphere weather patterns are being influenced by a very deep solar minimum just passed and a weak current (cycle 24) solar cycle. Quite how this works is way beyond me, but early evidence may be suggesting higher air pressure at polar and high latitudes.

There is a strong theory that we may be entering a grand minimum (several consequtive solar cycles with long minimums and weak maximums). If this is the case then the only comparable period where we have proper records is for the dalton minimum at the start of the 19th Century.

Looking at the CET records around this period, most winter months were what we would term these days as below average (although not all, so even in them days other factors perhaps overrode the solar forcing). Summer months did not seems to be as affected and the there were in fact many more above average summer months than above average winter months, although these became less frequent towards the end of the minimum period.

There were also lots of cold Novembers and cold March's (in the 25 year period from 1795-1819, there were 14 Novembers that were sub 5C and 13 Marchs that were sub 5C), which suggests to me that if the theory holds true we should start to see winters starting earlier and finishing later - this ties in with this year and last year where colder weather came earlier in the season than we were used to - also we have seen widespread snow events as late as April in the last 3-4 years which may or may not be tied into this pattern.

If it wasn't for the influence I believe the sun has on the climate, then I would totally sign up to AGW theory. However, I believe it is criminal that all AGW theory assumes solar forcing to be constant when it is quite clear to me that the the period 1950-2000 saw the most active sun we have ever recorded accurately - is it just coincidence that temps rose at there fastest (particularly in the NH) during this period.

As I have said, I can't prove any of this, although the next 30 years shuold be very informative, especially if the sun does decide to take and extended sleep.

[ElectricSnowStorm]

Interesting post Stu_London, its got to be studied more i think, the solar inportance on climate is of course the biggest factor, but perhaps this solar minimum is just keeping the AGW at bay for now? but if we ignore GW if it was shown that global temps are now steady(are they?then when solar maximum influences our climate would this not put us in danger of great AGW? or a faster effect on rising temps.

Im not a scientist but i think their is some big changes quickly occuring to our climate and world climate, whether its solar, nad, gulf stream, or something new! we need to know whats happening, i can't say i dont believe in global warming, either years back or now.. it could be on hold now, but we need to know, what i have read is N-Europe, Britain, and East America is cooling but the rest of the globe is warming! book i read is a new one.

[Stu_London]

nimbilus, on 08 December 2010 - 05:14 , said:

Interesting post Stu_London, its got to be studied more i think, the solar inportance on climate is of course the biggest factor, but perhaps this solar minimum is just keeping the AGW at bay for now? but if we ignore GW if it was shown that global temps are now steady(are they?then when solar maximum influences our climate would this not put us in danger of great AGW? or a faster effect on rising temps.

Im not a scientist but i think their is some big changes quickly occuring to our climate and world climate, whether its solar, nad, gulf stream, or something new! we need to know whats happening, i can't say i dont believe in global warming, either years back or now.. it could be on hold now, but we need to know, what i have read is N-Europe, Britain, and East America is cooling but the rest of the globe is warming! book i read is a new one.

The other thing that is interesting about my analysis of the CET months is that summer appeared to suffer more from a lag than the winter months when it came to solar forcing.

Looking at it the other way, if the warming in the 90s and early 00s was at least in part due to solar forcing, then we would expect the winters to become mild before the summers got warmer. Although it's not a perfect pattern match because we did have some cold months in winter and some warm months in summer earlier in the period, i do beleive that is roughly what happened. We had close to record mild in the late 80s, yet the three real standout summers were 95, 03 and 06, sometime later.

It's a lot of guesswork because the CET only tells a small part of the story, and as discussed, solar forcing is only one influence.

I think it will be worth looking closely at local and global temperatures over the next 5-10 years. Although the UK is on course for the coldest year for almost 25 years, globally we will be near the highest temperature on record.

[Boar Wrinklestorm]

There is some merit in looking at natural cycles to model and predict the CET using Fourier Analysis as described in my blog, here

Although year to year detail is very difficult using the most prominent cycles 17, 23, 2, 28 and 52, a reasonable approximation can be garnered. Using the techniques described it looks like, even with the (presumed) AGW trend added back in, temperatures will be ~1C cooler than the 1998 maximum give or take at least until 2026 - and even after the subsequent warming, then, it forecasts a big retraction in temperature around 2080.

Looks like I will be warm in my old age

[ElectricSnowStorm]

I'm thinking about the jetstream pattern and its effects, its far far more south than normal and thats where the lows are now, as the jetstream is the 'main highway' for low pressure systems to the UK then thats why we are not seeing them, and as the jet is south we get the east atlantic block of high pressure stopping lows from moving in, but whats put the jet in this place?

[ElectricSnowStorm]

The unusual jet stream pattern maybe caused by the low solar activity affecting the stratosphere which affects the troposphere below it where the jet is.

[ElectricSnowStorm]

1-Solar activity-solar minimum and the effects on the stratosphere/troposphere.
2-jet stream, unusual pattern for a long period, and still is now.
3-Prolonged blocking patterns.
4-NAO/AO extreme negative phases last winter, NAO prolonged unusual negative periods 12months+.
5-Azores high summer 2010-not moving much north.
6-extreme SOI pattern september2010.
7-Volcanic eruptions during the last few years-delayed effect on the upper atmosphere.
8-weaker GS/NAD(?)
LOTS OF INTEREST!

1-Solar activity-solar minimum and the effects on the stratosphere/troposphere.
2-jet stream, unusual pattern for a long period, and still is now.
3-Prolonged blocking patterns.
4-NAO/AO extreme negative phases last winter, NAO prolonged unusual negative periods 12months+.
5-Azores high summer 2010-not moving much north.
6-extreme SOI pattern september2010.
7-Volcanic eruptions during the last few years-delayed effect on the upper atmosphere.
8-weaker GS/NAD(?)
LOTS OF INTEREST!

[Gray-Wolf]

Just so we're clear. The Gulf Stream is the wind driven surface current.

The MOC is the current that sinks off NW tip of Greenland and had a bit of a slow down through the naughties (until the record Arctic melt of 07' bump started it again).

The Gulf stream is unaffected by the need for descending waters to drive it (conveyor) as it is driven by the prevailing winds across the Atlantic?

Is the topic about drastic reversals in the west East movement of our weather (across the N. Atlantic Basin) or about the MOC faltering at it's descent points?

[Alan Robinson]

Hello, a new user here, retired naval architect / shipbuilder, sailor and keen gardener living in Denmark.

I thought readers might be interested to know I just read on a Danish website that certain Polish meteorologists in October 2010 predicted this winter 2010 / 11 would be the coldest in 1000 years. I couldn't trace the source back to its origin, but it seems the Poles put their prediction down to the Gulf Steam failing, and when it was said that the BP oil catastrophe was partly to blame for the GS stalling, the Danes understandably laughed at the whole theory of another cold winter.

In the meantime, the sea around the island where I live has frozen a few weeks earlier than it did last year - which itself was the coldest since 1995 - and is now thick enough to walk on. Furthermore, Denmark has just experienced the second white Christmas in a row, which hasn't happened here the last 150 years. The icebreakers which were last used in 1995 have started their engines, which are normally mothballed to preserve them, Bornholm is buried in unprecedented snow, and one of the roads into our village is is so blocked that snow ploughs have given up, and they'll have to start digging the stuff onto lorries and drive it away somewhere.

last November, the Danish Met Institute issued a forecast for December 2010 to February 2011 inclusive, which gave out that Denmark's mean temperature for these three months would be 0.8 degrees ABOVE the average for 1961 - 1990, and that forecast has been updated to cover January to March 2011, now anticipating I think 0.5 degrees higher than average temperature, notwithstanding that December has been about 5 degrees BELOW average. Around 18th December, they were confident that a durable thaw would commence around 23rd / 24th December, yet this morning it is still -6 degrees, and their forcast right now is for continuing sub-zero temperatures for at least another week.

Now I'll readily concede I am a bit slow to catch on, but how is it the Danish Met Institute can get things so badly wrong? I doubt this will be the coldest Danish winter for 1000 years, and even if it is we have no reliable data to tell us how cold it was in, say, 1327. Nonetheless, it seems the factors affecting climate are simply not fully understood, and forecasters are dabbling in divination.

Does anyone know if the meteorological profession is doing any genuine soul-searching?

[Boar Wrinklestorm]

Hale predicted that this period would be like this around the turn of the 19th/20th century - the Hale-Solar Cycle ...

Technical description, here. The reversal of solar magnetic fields every Hale cycle (the average length of which is 22 years) is statistically linked to cold winters in North Western Europe. No physical explanation of why this is the case is yet known.

As far as I know the last Hale cycle began in 2008 ... what was winter like during the early to mid 1980s in North-West Europe?

Edited by VillagePlank, 26 December 2010 - 11:17 .

[Alan Robinson]

VillagePlank, on 26 December 2010 - 11:12 , said:

Hale predicted that this period would be like this around the turn of the 19th/20th century - the Hale-Solar Cycle ...

Technical description, here. The reversal of solar magnetic fields every Hale cycle (the average length of which is 22 years) is statistically linked to cold winters in North Western Europe. No physical explanation of why this is the case is yet known.

As far as I know the last Hale cycle began in 2008 ... what was winter like during the early to mid 1980s in North-West Europe?

1981 was very cold in Denmark, with the sea frozen until late March. 1983 was almost as bad as I recall it.

[Alan Robinson]

VillagePlank, on 26 December 2010 - 11:12 , said:

Hale predicted that this period would be like this around the turn of the 19th/20th century - the Hale-Solar Cycle ...

Technical description, here. The reversal of solar magnetic fields every Hale cycle (the average length of which is 22 years) is statistically linked to cold winters in North Western Europe. No physical explanation of why this is the case is yet known.

As far as I know the last Hale cycle began in 2008 ... what was winter like during the early to mid 1980s in North-West Europe?

VP, I did warn that I am slow to catch onto some things. I can grasp the bimodal distribution of sunspot numbers every 22 years or so, during which period the magnetic polarity of these goes through a complete cycle. Am I to gather that colder winters are thought to coincide with sunspot minima of a particular magnetic polarity? That certainly corresponds with the varying lowest winter temperatures recorded at Whitby High lighthouse 1962-63, 1984-86, and again 2009-10, and presumably this year too. However, I cannot see the value of such phenomena when colder winters also occurred 1967-69, 1977-79, and indeed, 1981 - 1987 in general had colder than average minima except for 1983-84.

Given that it seems to me colder than average winters in recent times do not correlate very well with Hale cycles, would you kindly point out what I might have overlooked?

[Boar Wrinklestorm]

Alan Robinson, on 27 December 2010 - 06:50 , said:

VP, I did warn that I am slow to catch onto some things. I can grasp the bimodal distribution of sunspot numbers every 22 years or so, during which period the magnetic polarity of these goes through a complete cycle. Am I to gather that colder winters are thought to coincide with sunspot minima of a particular magnetic polarity? That certainly corresponds with the varying lowest winter temperatures recorded at Whitby High lighthouse 1962-63, 1984-86, and again 2009-10, and presumably this year too. However, I cannot see the value of such phenomena when colder winters also occurred 1967-69, 1977-79, and indeed, 1981 - 1987 in general had colder than average minima except for 1983-84.

Given that it seems to me colder than average winters in recent times do not correlate very well with Hale cycles, would you kindly point out what I might have overlooked?

If you consider a "random" walk, then if the Hale cycle exists (it does) you would see that that walk posting greater negative anomalies approx every 22 years (hence not "random"). This, of course, does not exclude that walk from having even colder winters outside of that cycle, but those colder winters would be randomly distributed.

With modern computers one can easily, and quickly discern such cycles from a temperature series using Fourier analysis, or even Wavelets. See my blog (in my signature) for a preliminary CET cycle analysis. In this analysis the 23 year cycle discerned, I presume, is the approx 22 year Hale cycle. There is greater magnitude 17 year cycle which I have not been able to determine it's origin.

By the way - welcome to NetW!

Edited by VillagePlank, 27 December 2010 - 10:52 .

[jcw]

Alan Robinson, on 26 December 2010 - 06:20 , said:

Hello, a new user here, retired naval architect / shipbuilder, sailor and keen gardener living in Denmark.

I thought readers might be interested to know I just read on a Danish website that certain Polish meteorologists in October 2010 predicted this winter 2010 / 11 would be the coldest in 1000 years. I couldn't trace the source back to its origin, but it seems the Poles put their prediction down to the Gulf Steam failing, and when it was said that the BP oil catastrophe was partly to blame for the GS stalling, the Danes understandably laughed at the whole theory of another cold winter.

This "coldest in 1000 years" is becoming a bit of an urban myth. There were links posted on a thread in the UKWW forum some time ago that explained how this story arose. Basically a climatologist was interviewed and asked, hypothetically, what would be the consequences of a slow-down or shut down in the Gulf Stream (or was it the nAD?). His response was along the lines that it would result in a 'millennium' winter. The media then had a field day and turned the story into te "coldest winter in 1000 years" on the way. It was attributed to Polish scientists. Further trawling of the Net shows that, once the story took wings, Russian scientits were dragged into the story and they issued a rebuttal of sorts insofar as saying that while a cold winter was expected they diagreed with the "Polish" view!

This is really a case of the media generating a fascinating, headlin-grabbing story from what was an opinion and slowly it becomes scientific reseach and a forecast!!

Will pos links when(if) I can find them again!

*EDIT* Here is one link;
Russian Winter View

Joe

Edited by jcw, 27 December 2010 - 11:07 .

[Alan Robinson]

VillagePlank, on 27 December 2010 - 10:32 , said:

If you consider a "random" walk, then if the Hale cycle exists (it does) you would see that that walk posting greater negative anomalies approx every 22 years (hence not "random"). This, of course, does not exclude that walk from having even colder winters outside of that cycle, but those colder winters would be randomly distributed.

By the way - welcome to NetW!

Thanks for the welcome VP.

I am afraid you have the better of me, for although I can picture for myself a random walk, I cannot see just how a walk can post things. Never mind, I am sure the Hale cycle exists, and the excellent description you provided is indisputable. Nonetheless, I am left thinking that any acceptable all-encompassing theory of long-term weather forecasting must be awfully complex and full of ifs and buts. That would explain the Danish Met Institute's (in my view) poor performance in recent years. Perhaps they should take a leaf out of the Met Office's book and give up publishing seasonal forecasts.

EDIT: a silly spelling mistake occurred.

Edited by Alan Robinson, 27 December 2010 - 13:09 .

[cuckoo]

The following article reports a paper which atributes the recent colder winters experienced in Europe to disappearing arctic sea ice. The larger area of exposed warmer (relatively speaking) ocean water facilitates northerly blocking patterns and hence the colder winters recently experienced in Europe. The phenomenon is only transient in nature however as further degredation of the ice cover will lead to a return to milder winters eventually.

article

[Boar Wrinklestorm]

Alan Robinson, on 27 December 2010 - 13:06 , said:

Thanks for the welcome VP.

I am afraid you have the better of me, for although I can picture for myself a random walk, I cannot see just how a walk can post things. Never mind, I am sure the Hale cycle exists, and the excellent description you provided is indisputable. Nonetheless, I am left thinking that any acceptable all-encompassing theory of long-term weather forecasting must be awfully complex and full of ifs and buts. That would explain the Danish Met Institute's (in my view) poor performance in recent years. Perhaps they should take a leaf out of the Met Office's book and give up publishing seasonal forecasts.

EDIT: a silly spelling mistake occurred.

I'll post something on my blog tomorrow, hopefully, that should help me explain myself a bit more. Pretty useless at getting what's in my head out, to be honest.

[Alan Robinson]

cuckoo, on 27 December 2010 - 17:12 , said:

The following article reports a paper which atributes the recent colder winters experienced in Europe to disappearing arctic sea ice. The larger area of exposed warmer (relatively speaking) ocean water facilitates northerly blocking patterns and hence the colder winters recently experienced in Europe. The phenomenon is only transient in nature however as further degredation of the ice cover will lead to a return to milder winters eventually.

article

That really is interesting cuckoo. In connection with this year's high global temperature I saw graphics recently showing that great swathes of northern Canada and most of Siberia were in November as much as 10 degrees warmer than average. The ideas in the article you kindly linked fits very well with actual land temperatures near the Arctic Circle. What I'd like to see now is some clever Dick explain the connection to Queensland's most severe floods in 150 years, for I am personally convinced these phenomena all interact globally, but in a way we still do not fully grasp.

Not that I am religious you understand, but the more I think of it, the more I respect Einstein's comment that God does not throw dice. Because last winter's freezing conditions (worse here than this year so far) ruined my spring cabbages, I began looking into the North Atlantic Oscillation, which seems to me nothing other than a comparison of barometer readings in Reykjavik and Lisbon or Gibraltar. I was fascinated by the cylic nature of the NAO index, and after analysing it very crudely, was so bold to predict that maritime type weather would return to NW Europe latest August 2010, and would persist until, say, February or March 2011. How wrong can I get! But then, that's what we get for using inductive arguments. Unless we are fully acquainted with the facts, the exception to the rule will always pop up just when we least expect it.

[ledders69]

Found a link that could be quite helpful:

http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-13210419

[Alan Robinson]

ledders69, on 23 August 2011 - 00:20 , said:

Found a link that could be quite helpful:

http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-13210419

Nice graphics Ledders, but it is hardly new information is it? Mariners have known for centuries that ocean currents are highly complex, mixing and merging, strengthening and weakening, setting this way and that. I'd like to see a similar simulation of the Southwest Monsoon in the north Indian Ocean. That would be spectacular, particularly around Socotra island; and not forgetting that the currents change fundamentally within less than six months.

For the time being, my view is that people are aware of these phenomena, but we are a long way from fully understanding them, their causes, interactions and their effects.