November CET

[noggin]

Quite but still the Bbc forecasts by and large do not acknowledge this is climate history in the making. Just listened to radio 4 forecasts you would nt guess its other than an ordinary cold snap- indeed thats the term he used. Also chilly! A reporter in Scotland said 'this early winter cold snap' its AUTUMN. Why are they underplaying this? Must be the a socio-political agenda at work to alleviate public mass panic and also given an extreme spell like this goes against GW.

BBC/Labour. Labour/BBC.

Shockingly, Ed Milliband said, over the weekend, that climate change must be at the root of all Labour's new policymaking. I don't know whether to laugh or cry or be very afraid. :unsure:

[trickydicky]

The lass who did the Countryfile forecast yesterday mentioned 'record breaking night time cold' a couple of times and also said 'penetrating frost' pretty regularly as well as 'dangerously cold' so i dont think she was underdoing it. The BBC still refuse to go any lower than about -6 with their temperature graphics, this despite having said the 'record breaking cold' bit and having just shown that it was -18 in rural Wales the night before. Why they underplay night time temperatures on their graphics so much I dont know, it is very misleading and doesnt paint a true picture. If it had always been like that then it wouldn't look so suspicous - just incompetent - but they did use to show extreme expected minima for rural locations.

[RichardR]

The lass who did the Countryfile forecast yesterday mentioned 'record breaking night time cold' a couple of times and also said 'penetrating frost' pretty regularly as well as 'dangerously cold' so i dont think she was underdoing it. The BBC still refuse to go any lower than about -6 with their temperature graphics, this despite having said the 'record breaking cold' bit and having just shown that it was -18 in rural Wales the night before. Why they underplay night time temperatures on their graphics so much I dont know, it is very misleading and doesnt paint a true picture. If it had always been like that then it wouldn't look so suspicous - just incompetent - but they did use to show extreme expected minima for rural locations.

Buxton, Derbyshire's forecast has -9 on thursday on the BBC graphics. Anyway what's the November CET down to now? Still way above the Buxton mean which is 3 Degrees C now.

[Stu_London]

CET to the 28th November

5.9C

Yesterday weighed in at -4.0C, so we will have to wait for adjustments to see if it beats the november record of -4.6C

Last night was -6.7C, so today will probably come in at around -3.0C

5.6C to the 29th

5.4C to the 30th

5.1C after adjustments

those are my predictions

[kold weather]

Interestingly Stu yesterdays insane -4C has meant we are now down to -0.48C on average for the first 5 days of the last week, effectivly meaning we are now almost certain to beat the coldest last week in November and more then likely by quite some way as well.

Very impressive cold spell!

[Stu_London]

Interestingly Stu yesterdays insane -4C has meant we are now down to -0.48C on average for the first 5 days of the last week, effectivly meaning we are now almost certain to beat the coldest last week in November and more then likely by quite some way as well.

Very impressive cold spell!

Indeed, see my posts on the other thread

I think we might be heading for sub -1C for the last week of November after adjustments

[stewfox]

Amazing looking at the CET graph for November, although provisional you can see where that -4c has gone.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_act_graphEX.gif

[The PIT]

Looking like the coldest since 93 for us and considering the mild start to the month it shows how severe this spell is. We're now at 5.2C and mid month we were a degree or more above normal.

[Paul T]

Phenomenal mean cet temp(s)

Perhaps the most extreme that i have ever witnessed.

Doing a few calcs, i believe that the final week of Novemeber will be -0.77 to -0.90 oC.

Would this be the coldest final week in the cet series?

i think i'll have a browse through mr datas posts!

---->>

coldest final weeks:

1774: 1.8

1776: 2.6

1782: 0.8

1787: -0.4

1788: 2.4

1789: 2.5

1801: 2.5

1804: 2.8

1807: 0.3

1813: 2.0

1815: 1.2

1816: 2.5

1840: 2.1

1844: 2.5

1840: 2.0

1851: 1.5

1862: 2.4

1874: 2.9

1875: 1.3

1878: 2.2

1879: 1.2

1884: 2.4

1890: 0.2

1891: 2.3

1904: -0.2

1910: 2.1

1915: 0.8

1919: 2.4

1923: -0.3

1925: 0.8

1947: 2.0

1952: 0.5

1969: 1.3

1973: 1.8

1977: 2.7

1978: 2.1

1985: 2.4

1989: 1.9

1993: 2.2

We are going to maul it.

Paul

Edited November 29, 2010 by Paul T

[damianslaw]

A remarkable severe cold spell for late November it has to be said - exceptional in all circumstances, perhaps we have become a little blase because of the cold last winter - had we not seen the cold of last winter I suspect many would be almost perplexed at the current cold weather, alas it feels very much like last winter for many and therefore perhaps not unusual even though it is November.

Many would not have expected the final CET to end up close to 5 degrees.

[reef]

Hadley on 5.6C to the 29th. Yesterday came in at -2.6C

5.4C looking like the landing point before adjustments. Today's min is -3.6C, but eastern areas in the zone have seen maxima of 2-3C today. Id imagine the mean figure tomorrow is around -0.5C, maybe a tad lower.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Kentish Kiwi]

Quite but still the Bbc forecasts by and large do not acknowledge this is climate history in the making. Just listened to radio 4 forecasts you would nt guess its other than an ordinary cold snap- indeed thats the term he used. Also chilly! A reporter in Scotland said 'this early winter cold snap' its AUTUMN. Why are they underplaying this? Must be the a socio-political agenda at work to alleviate public mass panic and also given an extreme spell like this goes against GW.

I wouldn't be surprised if it was more ignorance than anything else, either that or the fact that it hasn't been until today that London and the South East has seen snowfall.

[Stu_London]

The official figures are in to the 29th and they suggest a correction downwards of 0.2C or 0.3C (Official CET to 29th is 5.38C)

Yesterday needs to be -1.7C or lower for the CET to finish on 5.1C, otherwise it will be 5.2C (Unless yesterday somehow comes in higher than +1.5C)

The minimum of the 28th has actually been revised to -7.0C from -8.0C, so not the coldest night of 2010.

[kold weather]

More to the point Stu just how cold did the last week of November end up being?

Few doubts we beat the record but did we spank it like West Ham did to Manchester United

[Stu_London]

It's -1.11C for the period 24/11/10-29/11/10, just waiting for the 30th

[reef]

Hadley is confirmed as 5.2C. So the coldest since 1993, 1.7C below the 1971-2000 average and 1.4C below the 1961-1990 average.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2010

The last week of November has also come in as -1.1C, so comfortably the coldest on record.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Confirmed as 5.2C

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Edit: Just beat me to it!

Edited December 2, 2010 by BornFromTheVoid

[kold weather]

A cold month but not exceptional when it comes to the CET zone...however the last week of November was very exceptional indeed...

Still coldest in nearly 20 years so thats pretty cool!

[reef]

It also gives an Autumn mean of 9.87C, making that the first sub-10C and coldest both since 1993.

[eddie]

The coldest final week in November (before this year) was -0.4C back in 1787.

The next coldest was -0.3C in 1923.

This year the final week came in at -1.1C.

Record smashed.

[Weather-history]

It was only a couple of years ago, people were questioning would we be able to get a sub 3C month, that winter 2005-06 maybe the coldest we can achieve, how rare below average months were etc. That period 2002-2005 had few below average months (only 8]. In the last 12 months there have been 8, with 4 at least 1C below average.

Months below the 1971-2000 average since January 2001

Nov 2010: 5.2 (-1.7)

Oct 2010: 10.3 (-0.1)

Aug 2010: 15.3 (-0.9)

May 2010: 10.7 (-0.6)

Mar 2010: 6.1 (-0.2)

Feb 2010: 2.8 (-1.4)

Jan 2010: 1.4 (-2.8]

Dec 2009: 3.1 (-2.0)

Jul 2009: 16.1 (-0.4)

Feb 2009: 4.1 [-0.1]

Jan 2009: 3.0 [-1.2]

Dec 2008: 3.5 (-1.6)

Oct 2008: 9.7 (-0.7)

Sep 2008: 13.5 (-0.2)

Jul 2008: 16.2 (-0.3)

Jun 2008: 13.9 (-0.2)

Apr 2008: 7.9 (-0.2)

Mar 2008: 6.1 (-0.2)

Dec 2007: 4.9 (-0.2)

Aug 2007: 15.4 (-0.8]

July 2007: 15.2 (-1.3)

Aug 2006: 16.1 (-0.1)

Mar 2006: 4.9 (-1.4)

Feb 2006: 3.7 (-0.5)

------------------------Decade halfway point

Dec 2005: 4.4 (-0.7)

Nov 2005: 6.2 (-0.7)

July 2004: 15.8 (-0.7)

Dec 2003: 4.8 (-0.3)

Oct 2003: 9.2 (-1.2)

Feb 2003: 3.9 (-0.3)

Oct 2002: 10.1 (-0.3)

Jul 2002: 16.0 (-0.5)

Dec 2001: 3.6 (-1.5)

Sep 2001: 13.4 (-0.3)

Apr 2001: 7.7 (-0.4)

Mar 2001: 5.2 (-1.1)

Jan 2001: 3.2 (-1.0)

Edited December 2, 2010 by Mr_Data

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Here's to getting the coldest December on record! Surely that wont be ignored like the coldest last week of November sort of has been.

[J10]

Full Results to follow tomorrow.

[North-Easterly Blast]

It was only a couple of years ago, people were questioning would we be able to get a sub 3C month, that winter 2005-06 maybe the coldest we can achieve, how rare below average months were etc. That period 2002-2005 had few below average months (only 8]. In the last 12 months there have been 8, with 4 at least 1C below average.

Months below the 1971-2000 average since January 2001

Nov 2010: 5.2 (-1.7)

Oct 2010: 10.3 (-0.1)

Aug 2010: 15.3 (-0.9)

May 2010: 10.7 (-0.6)

Mar 2010: 6.1 (-0.2)

Feb 2010: 2.8 (-1.4)

Jan 2010: 1.4 (-2.8]

Dec 2009: 3.1 (-2.0)

Jul 2009: 16.1 (-0.4)

Feb 2009: 4.1 [-0.1]

Jan 2009: 3.0 [-1.2]

Dec 2008: 3.5 (-1.6)

Oct 2008: 9.7 (-0.7)

Sep 2008: 13.5 (-0.2)

Jul 2008: 16.2 (-0.3)

Jun 2008: 13.9 (-0.2)

Apr 2008: 7.9 (-0.2)

Mar 2008: 6.1 (-0.2)

Dec 2007: 4.9 (-0.2)

Aug 2007: 15.4 (-0.8]

July 2007: 15.2 (-1.3)

Aug 2006: 16.1 (-0.1)

Mar 2006: 4.9 (-1.4)

Feb 2006: 3.7 (-0.5)

------------------------Decade halfway point

Dec 2005: 4.4 (-0.7)

Nov 2005: 6.2 (-0.7)

July 2004: 15.8 (-0.7)

Dec 2003: 4.8 (-0.3)

Oct 2003: 9.2 (-1.2)

Feb 2003: 3.9 (-0.3)

Oct 2002: 10.1 (-0.3)

Jul 2002: 16.0 (-0.5)

Dec 2001: 3.6 (-1.5)

Sep 2001: 13.4 (-0.3)

Apr 2001: 7.7 (-0.4)

Mar 2001: 5.2 (-1.1)

Jan 2001: 3.2 (-1.0)

And here's to the 1961-90 average:

I prefer this, especially for the cooler months, as it highlights Britain's more historical climate better, and excludes the warm 1990s, and takes some cooler months out of the list that in reality, were only average, or even a shade above in pre 1988 standards.

Nov 2010: 5.2 (-1.4)

Oct 2010: 10.3 (-0.2) although only 0.1 below the 71-00

Aug 2010: 15.3 (-0.5)

May 2010: 10.7 (-0.5)

Feb 2010: 2.8 (-1.0)

Jan 2010: 1.4 (-2.4)

Dec 2009: 3.1 (-1.6)

Jan 2009: 3.0 (-0.

Dec 2008: 3.5 (-1.2)

Oct 2008: 9.7 (-0.

Sep 2008: 13.5 (-0.1)

June 2008:13.9 (-0.3)

Aug 2007: 15.4 (-0.4)

July 2007:15.2 (-0.9)

Mar 2006: 4.9 (-0.

Dec 2005: 4.4 (-0.3)

Nov 2005: 6.2 (-0.4)

July 2004:15.8 (-0.3)

Oct 2003: 9.2 (-1.2)

Oct 2002: 10.1 (-0.4)

July 2002:16.0 (-0.1)

Dec 2001: 3.6 (-1.1)

Sep 2001: 13.4 (-0.2)

Apr 2001: 7.7 (-0.2)

Mar 2001: 5.2 (-0.5)

Jan 2001: 3.2 (-0.6)

It is certainly clear that from the mid 1990s to at least 2008 cooler than average months became increasingly scarce, and the last two years have finally seen this pick up.

This is truly turning out to be one of, if not the coldest spells ever recorded for late November / early December.

OK, we have in years gone by had cold spells in late November / early December and dustings of snow for some areas, but I do not know of any such year in the past that has seen such extreme cold and widespread snow this early in the winter season. Before anyone mentions 1981 that didn't start until December 7th / 8th, and the CET was over 5*C up to the 7th, and even that turned out to be the most extreme pre-Christmas cold spell of the whole of the 1900s at least.

We could possibly be looking at one of the coldest first weeks of December on record ever. Kevin, what are the top coldest first weeks / ten days of December ever?

[Kentish Kiwi]

Could anyone provide figures for the coldest weeks in November and how this compares with the spell we have just experienced (coldest last week of November)? Surely, being the coldest last week, it must be close to the coldest November week on record?