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Antarctic Ice Discussion


pottyprof

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

CT is stuck on jan 31st but it could be that Ross Sea is now totally ice free? The plot on the 31st was falling well into the grouping of other years ( not even close to 'top') so are we starting to see the first signs of the flip in the naturals across Antarctica too?

 

Refreeze will be an interesting watch for me this year! Will we continue to see change to the patterns that we have become accustomed over the 'cool driver' predominated years?

 

Model projections show Ross as the first area to see sea ice collapse with it disappearing completely mid century so this might be an area to watch over the coming decade? With the combination of a healing ozone hole, warm driver predominance and AGW forcings will we begin to see ice levels fall back, over winter, across the Ross Sea?

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

In the same way that posting record global temps ( beating the temp surge from the 98' super nino) in a period of negative naturals and enhanced dimming any move away from increased amounts of sea ice needs explaining don't ya think?

 

If increased freshening of the surface waters around the continent from the increased mass loss of the ice sheet and stronger winds ( driven by AGW forcings and impacts from the human made ozone hole) pushing sea ice out further from the continent is being overcome to the point that levels return back to levels last seen before these extra forcings then what lies behind it?

 

I believe i am seeing different wind behaviours across the Pacific basin so maybe we are seeing teleconnections from those changes ( we know 'La Nina' conditions lead to reductions in mass loss from Thwaites/PIG)

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

 

Still no sign of KL???

 

EDIT; does anyone else see a change to greater variation in ice amounts over the 'Faux Pause' years (from around the turn of the century)?

seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png

Knocker...

I am not an expert on this topic....

This graph to me looks identical to the ones used widely by your crew (not just yourself) to justify their claims that the real pause does not exist. Hence your 'faux' pause comment.

If you use tha same technique of a straight line graph from 1979 to today that is used for temperature discussions (heaven forbid?), then the graph actually shows as a constant increase in ice gains. Furthermore (and unlike the temperature graphs) they show an increasing trend since the turn of the century (unlike the temperature ones), however you may try to cover it up.

So not sure why you use the technique for one case, but not in the other?

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Yes it does. Now who was it.....................of course, Monckton draws similar

 

Meanwhile back at the ranch lest we forget some minor details

 

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
 
Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica, from 1992 to 2011
Rignot, Mouginot, Morlighem
Geophysical Research Letters
pages 3502–3509, 28 May 2014
~ ~ ~
 
Marine Ice Sheet Collapse Potentially Under Way for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica
Joughin, Smith, Medley
Published Online May 12 2014
Science 16 May 2014: 
Vol. 344 no. 6185 pp. 735-738 
~ ~ ~

also see


Melt of Key Antarctic Glaciers ‘Unstoppable,’ Studies Find

and

 

Warming Air Was Trigger for Antarctic Ice Shelf Collapse
 
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
 

Oh and let's not forget about the ocean that surrounds Antarctica!




Ice-Shelf Melting Around Antarctica
Rignot, Jacobs, Mouginot, Scheuchl
Published Online June 13 2013
Science 19 July 2013: 
Vol. 341 no. 6143 pp. 266-270 
~ ~ ~

also see


Look Out Below: Antarctic Melting From Underneath
Antarctic Sea Ice Hits New Max; Continent Still Warming
 
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
 
New Reconstruction of Antarctic Near-Surface Temperatures: Multidecadal Trends and Reliability of Global Reanalyses
Julien P. Nicolas and David H. Bromwich
Journal Climate, 27, 8070–8093.
 
 
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

 

I'm at a loss as to why you are addressing your reply to me.

 

Knocker

It applies to everyone, but I do apologise to you.

MIA

Edit,

Knocker - Sorry I have cataracts starting and so cannot read the above.

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

Little Antarctic sea ice loss over the melt season last 2yrs  ,Antarctic sea ice 800.000 sq km above the mean.antarctic-sea-ice-extent-for-day-34-from

Edited by keithlucky
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

http://phys.org/news/2015-02-global-sea-ice-diminishing-antarctic.html#jCp

 

Thought I'd better post this here so as we are in no confusion over the state of global sea ice?

 

As it stands today Antarctic sea ice is back into the pact of previous years Area figures? As I posted up thread I wonder if we are seeing changes in global naturals and so the behaviour in sea ice and its configuration/extensions?

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Well we are nearing the end of melt season and we find sea ice level around the 'recent norm' for the past few years. To go from record level into past 'norms' over a few short weeks hints at the speed of change that we have just witnessed ( i.e. all the extra ice plus the 'normal' ice went over a 3 week period) so are we to be treated to something a little different this coming re-freeze season?

 

With it looking like something is changing in the global drivers ( over the past 18 months or so?) and the current high SST's then we might be looking at something more akin to what we saw in the 80's?

 

Sadly in the 80's we had Arctic sea ice cover so we may find ourselves at record low Global sea ice levels come July/Aug? If we see a stormy start to re-freeze around the southern ocean we may find a longer run of record low global sea ice as the southern pack is smashed and reforms repeatedly.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

No mention of the changes we have wrought to both poles that also impact conditions there four? Odd that?

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/9/861/2015/tcd-9-861-2015.pdf

 

Looks like Larsen C is about to go the same way as its neighbour? Should it survive until refreeze then one to watch over next melt season esp. if we suffer another record warm year ( ie similar forcings to the past 18 months or so?? naturals 'flip'???).

 

http://www.polarview.aq/antarctic

 

Good resource for watching/checking?

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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

Looks like Antartic sea ice is on the rise ,possible another record sea ice year again starting at 800,000 sq km above average.global_sea_ice_extent_zoomed_2015_day_51

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Looks like Antartic sea ice is on the rise ,possible another record sea ice year again starting at 800,000 sq km above average.global_sea_ice_extent_zoomed_2015_day_51

 

Keith

What average are you talking about as sunshine hours graph you have posted shows it below the mean for 1981 to 2010.

I guess you are talking about the average for 2000-2010?

MIA.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Ocean-driven thinning enhances iceberg calving and retreat of Antarctic ice shelves

 

Iceberg calving from all Antarctic ice shelves has never been directly measured, despite playing a crucial role in ice sheet mass balance. Rapid changes to iceberg calving naturally arise from the sporadic detachment of large tabular bergs but can also be triggered by climate forcing. Here we provide a direct empirical estimate of mass loss due to iceberg calving and melting from Antarctic ice shelves. We find that between 2005 and 2011, the total mass loss due to iceberg calving of 755 ± 24 gigatonnes per year (Gt/y) is only half the total loss due to basal melt of 1516 ± 106 Gt/y. However, we observe widespread retreat of ice shelves that are currently thinning. Net mass loss due to iceberg calving for these ice shelves (302 ± 27 Gt/y) is comparable in magnitude to net mass loss due to basal melt (312 ± 14 Gt/y). Moreover, we find that iceberg calving from these decaying ice shelves is dominated by frequent calving events, which are distinct from the less frequent detachment of isolated tabular icebergs associated with ice shelves in neutral or positive mass balance regimes. Our results suggest that thinning associated with ocean-driven increased basal melt can trigger increased iceberg calving, implying that iceberg calving may play an overlooked role in the demise of shrinking ice shelves, and is more sensitive to ocean forcing than expected from steady state calving estimates.

 

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2015/02/26/1415137112.full.pdf+html?with-ds=yes

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Friction means Antarctic glaciers more sensitive to climate change than we thought

 

One of the biggest unknowns in understanding the effects of climate change today is the melting rate of glacial ice in Antarctica. Scientists agree rising atmospheric and ocean temperatures could destabilize these ice sheets, but there is uncertainty about how fast they will lose ice.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2015-03-friction-antarctic-glaciers-sensitive-climate.html#jCp

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?p=antarctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines&t=2015-03-13&v=-447232,-1285120,-97536,-1122560

 

Amazing to see how wide 'my crack' has become on Ross??? The small one in front of it appears to be widening even more rapidly?

 

I have no Idea how long it will be before it goes ( I've been watching it over a decade!) but when it does it will be a biggie! (well above 'natural' sized events for Ross)

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Consistent evidence of increasing Antarctic accumulation with warming

 

Projections of changes in Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) surface mass balance indicate a negative contribution to sea level because of the expected increase in precipitation due to the higher moisture holding capacity of warmer air1. Observations over the past decades, however, are unable to constrain the relation between temperature and accumulation changes because both are dominated by strong natural variability2, 3, 4, 5. Here we derive a consistent continental-scale increase in accumulation of approximately 5 ± 1% K−1, through the assessment of ice-core data (spanning the large temperature change during the last deglaciation, 21,000 to 10,000 years ago), in combination with palaeo-simulations, future projections by 35 general circulation models (GCMs), and one high-resolution future simulation. The ice-core data and modelling results for the last deglaciation agree, showing uniform local sensitivities of ~6% K−1. The palaeo-simulation allows for a continental-scale aggregation of accumulation changes reaching 4.3% K−1. Despite the different timescales, these sensitivities agree with the multi-model mean of 6.1 ± 2.6% K−1 (GCM projections) and the continental-scale sensitivity of 4.9% K−1 (high-resolution future simulation). Because some of the mass gain of the AIS is offset by dynamical losses induced by accumulation6, 7, we provide a response function allowing projections of sea-level fall in terms of continental-scale accumulation changes that compete with surface melting and dynamical losses induced by other mechanisms6, 8, 9.

 

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2574.html

 

Synopsis

 

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/03/150316135436.htm

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

I fear for the south Orkney Islands this summer (their winter)

 

Look at the ice extend some 500 miles further out, already in early spring in wedell sea.

 

Those 'winds' must be blowing at 1.500 mph ??

 

 

post-7914-0-91647200-1426801703_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

Antarctic ice on the climb again no wonder really with -60c recorded yesterday in central Antarcticantarctic_sea_ice_extent_zoomed_2015_day

Edited by keithlucky
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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Antarctic ice on the climb again no wonder really with -60c recorded yesterday in central Antarcticantarctic_sea_ice_extent_zoomed_2015_day

 

That's 2,000,000 sq kms of more sea ice cf the min year before season even starts !

 

Its a pity we only have patchy data that isn't picked up re global temp studies.

 

A great year ahead for the skeptics !

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Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors

http://www.nature.com/news/robot-reveals-surprisingly-thick-antarctic-sea-ice-1.16397

 

 

Previous observations of the thickness of Antarctic sea ice produced a mean draught — the depth between the waterline and the bottom of the ice sheet — of around 1 metre; the new work gives a mean draught of over 3 metres. And a previous maximum recorded ice-sheet thickness of 10 metres has now been increased to 16 metres.

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