Arctic Ice Discussion - 2010 Freeze Up

[Richie V]

No need to get soul destroyed about the loss in Arctic Ice.

One should be rejoicing IMO.

The more exposed land in the northern hemisphere then the better for all carbon based life forms.....that means us guys!...it means more life , more diversified life and more food! :-)

You certainly wont be very happy if the Ice started to build again to levels that it did a few thousand years ago....then you will really have something to worry about.

THERES TOO MANY OF US already. we are like parasites infecting an animal..... slowly killing the host.

[Gray-Wolf]

I wonder if the coastal ice on both the russian and alaskan side of Bering will see any disruption from the tsunami? I know we await the impacts of the 'supermoon' on the basin but maybe we'll have started a few days early?

[Gray-Wolf]

Just a 'heads up' for the spring high tides across the basin (and the super moon!) but due to the raggerty edges to the pack I don't think we will see the type of 'spike' in extent we have seen over the past years? We may see more open water inside the basin come Monday but I do not feel this will be enough to impact 'extent' figures.

[Gray-Wolf]

Now we have fractured the ice in the high Arctic;

http://www.woksat.info/etctc20/tc20-1131-f-grn-n.html

Will the coming stalled L.P. over the Arctic now just start to flush things Fram's way?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnnh.html

When I run through the charts (over the past couple of days) the trend seems set for a period of Northerlies through Fram. By April we should know how this has 'stretched the ice' , from the pole to Svalbard (and beyond?) leaving plenty of wide leads for May's warmth to exploit.

I'm really starting to believe that I have been 'on the money' with where I see the Arctic heading , just much faster than I would have thought possible.

The implications for us all are great (I believe) with a warming Arctic ready to feed into any 'uptick' in global warming once all the current negative drivers abate. Due to the size of input the Arctic brings I believe this next phase of warming will be much greater than the 80's 'uptick' and now vast swathes of the permafrost are laid bare (and dark).

[Iceberg]

Very much agree with you GW.

I will happily go on record to say that the ice for the 20th of March is in as poor a state in almost every sense as far back as it's possible to go.

The depth of ice, the packing, the extent, the cracking etc.

2007 was the year the Arctic went into A&E.

2011 looks to be the year it died on the operating table **prediction**.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm just constantly surprised by the number of folk who see the Arctic in 2d still Ice. We've had good access to the general overview of conditions there Esp. after 07' and Prof Barbers work in the South Beaufort sea.

I can only (and always have?) surmise that they do not wish to see nor accept the monumental changes occuring there?

Having recently suffered 'Loss' I'm up to speed of the phases of grieving you can expect to run through but these guys seem trapped in stage 1 (Denial).....I know how many ways a soul can try and pretend everything is as it was, kid yourself nothing has changed....eventually you have to admit the loss to yourself. We have never had such a young (full of salt) pack with such reduced thickness (fragility) without the 'backbone' of old perennial (making up the majority of the ice type in the basin) running from East Greenland through to the Southern Beaufort sea. We look at the images each day and have comparable images from only a few years ago (as the 'new ice' ate into the capacity for the Paleocrystic ice to maintain) showing how much better things were back then?

If ,on an average summer, we sail beyond the disaster that was 07's min, will those folk finally accept what has occurred and focus on the price that comes with it instead of peering out in hope of seeing an old friend returning?

[Iceberg]

Just had a discussion with Mr Chapman (the chief scientist behind the cryosphere site).

Essentially there are two camps atm.

The first is that the increased cracks etc lead to more ocean heat loss than a solid pack leading to slower spring melt, probably resulting in a 2008/09 scenario.

The second is that the cracks are sufficently large and the ice sufficently shallow that it finds it difficult to withstand any WAA anad imported heat and quickly disappears leading to a 2007 or lower scenario.

The Key looks to be the melt rate of April and May, if the melt rate starts off relatively badly then it doesn't bode well.

[VillagePlank]

Good blog piece in my view: http://judithcurry.com/2011/03/19/pondering-the-arctic-ocean-part-i-climate-dynamics/

Edited March 21, 2011 by VillagePlank

[Iceberg]

Arctic ice looks to have officially turned the corner now with net losses from here on until Autumn generally.

It seems to be an averagish time compared to recent years but probably 2-3 weeks early than last year.

[Iceberg]

An interesting Blog and I agree with maybe 98% of it, thanks for posting it VP.

For me and I admit I am being a little bias here as I am a big fan of Judith Curry's conclusions.

"The area of the Arctic Ocean covered by predominantly older ice (5 or more years old) decreased by 56% between 1982 and 2007. Within the central Arctic Ocean, the coverage of old ice has declined by 88%, and ice that is at least 9 years old (ice that tends to be sequestered in the Beaufort Gyre) has essentially disappeared."

For me the above is simply saying that in by 2007 the ice lacked the ability to protect itself from a high melt year and so when one occured we had the now well documented 2007 record low.

"Polyakov et al.: The severity of present ice loss can be highlighted by the breakup of ice shelves at the northern coast of Ellesmere Island, which have been stable until recently for at least several thousand years based on geological data."

I've picked out this bit, firstly as Polyakov was a very well known supporter of natural ice loss(none AGW induced) and was held in high esteme by the Anti AGW crowd. But secondly as it gives very clear evidence that the melting and lack of ice thickness that is currently happening up in the arctic is pretty unprecedented over the last few thousand years.

Finally a shred of good news near the end of the blog, which is pretty much what has been said on this thread.

"If natural variability is dominant, the sea ice extent could increase if the AO stays predominanly negative, the PDO stays cool, and the AMO switches to the cool phase (a scenario that might occur sometime in the next 2-3 decades).

A complex interplay between natural internal variability and CO2 forcing is the most like explanation. Further research is needed particularly on role of natural internal variability in influencing sea ice thickness and extent. "

My interpretation of this is that if all the natural cycles favour ice retention then we might get some kind of recovery over the next 20-30 years. However by then what state might the arctic be in even if this hope materialises.?

[keithlucky]

I'm just constantly surprised by the number of folk who see the Arctic in 2d still Ice. We've had good access to the general overview of conditions there Esp. after 07' and Prof Barbers work in the South Beaufort sea.

I can only (and always have?) surmise that they do not wish to see nor accept the monumental changes occuring there?

Having recently suffered 'Loss' I'm up to speed of the phases of grieving you can expect to run through but these guys seem trapped in stage 1 (Denial).....I know how many ways a soul can try and pretend everything is as it was, kid yourself nothing has changed....eventually you have to admit the loss to yourself. We have never had such a young (full of salt) pack with such reduced thickness (fragility) without the 'backbone' of old perennial (making up the majority of the ice type in the basin) running from East Greenland through to the Southern Beaufort sea. We look at the images each day and have comparable images from only a few years ago (as the 'new ice' ate into the capacity for the Paleocrystic ice to maintain) showing how much better things were back then?

If ,on an average summer, we sail beyond the disaster that was 07's min, will those folk finally accept what has occurred and focus on the price that comes with it instead of peering out in hope of seeing an old friend returning?

LOOK if as you say sea ice has monumental ice loss has happened where the water gone ?no rise in sea levels has occured no massive land areas have gone, yes there has been some loss in the Arctic no world increase in temps in fact its decreased the IPPC have been discredited (Usa has withdrawn funding)I am not in denial just a realist.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's a close up of the sea ice for January-May, from 79-present

Years since 2006 are in bold, 2011 is in purple.

LOOK if as you say sea ice has monumental ice loss has happened where the water gone ?no rise in sea levels has occured no massive land areas have gone, yes there has been some loss in the Arctic no world increase in temps in fact its decreased the IPPC have been discredited (Usa has withdrawn funding)I am not in denial just a realist.

Sea ice melts contribution to sea level rise is next to negligable, as no water is being added, it's just changing state. The sea ice already displaces as much water as it would if it melted.

Global warming contributes to things like the melting of land ice (ice sheets, glaciers, etc) and thermal expansion of the sea water, causing sea level rise.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Well NSIDC have called ice max.

[knocker]

LOOK if as you say sea ice has monumental ice loss has happened where the water gone ?no rise in sea levels has occured no massive land areas have gone, yes there has been some loss in the Arctic no world increase in temps in fact its decreased the IPPC have been discredited (Usa has withdrawn funding)I am not in denial just a realist.

BFTV has already answered your somewhat peculiar question but more to the point let's not forget the Greenland ice sheet which is relevant to sea level rise.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41197838/ns/us_news-environment/

[knocker]

Todays snapshot.

Pederson glacier past and present.

The retreat of Pedersen Glacier, Alaska. Left: summer 1917. Right: summer 2005. Deary me where's it gone? Must be a sign of a new ice age.

[keithlucky]

BFTV has already answered your somewhat peculiar question but more to the point let's not forget the Greenland ice sheet which is relevant to sea level rise.

http://www.msnbc.msn...ws-environment/

We forever being told that polar caps are melting ,ice sheets are melting and so on, I just read a article from tropical island news http://bit.ly/hxZiD5, and they say that no islands are at threat from rising sea levels ,we constantly being told that sea levels are rising wheres the evidence?

Edited March 25, 2011 by keithlucky

[stewfox]

Very much agree with you GW.

I will happily go on record to say that the ice for the 20th of March is in as poor a state in almost every sense as far back as it's possible to go.

The depth of ice, the packing, the extent, the cracking etc.

2007 was the year the Arctic went into A&E.

2011 looks to be the year it died on the operating table **prediction**.

Happy to take a punt 6,125,000

we should get some volume figures this year as well ??

[knocker]

,we constantly being told that sea levels are rising wheres the evidence?

Satellite measurements show that the current rate of sea level rise is around 3mm per year. In the period 1961-2003 it has recently been estimated1 that 40% of sea level rise was caused by the expansion of water as it was heated by global warming and 60% from shrinking glaciers, ice caps and ice-sheets.

http://www.parliament.uk/documents/post/postpn363-sea-level-rise.pdf

[knocker]

So warm water circulation, i.e.the Gulf Stream, has been severely disrupted in recent years?

Warmer air is only part of the story when it comes to Greenland’s rapidly melting ice sheet. New research by scientists at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) highlights the role ocean circulation plays in transporting heat to glaciers. Greenland's ice sheet has lost mass at an accelerated rate over the last decade, dumping more ice and fresh water into the ocean. Between 2001 and 2005, Helheim Glacier, a large glacier on Greenland’s southeast coast, retreated 5 miles (8 kilometers) and its flow speed nearly doubled.

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=7545&tid=282&cid=95209&ct=162

[4wd]

This paper shows no acceleration in sea-level rise.

http://www.jcronline.org/doi/pdf/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-10-00157.1

[Gray-Wolf]

http://rapidfire.sci...162500.250m.jpg

The above images shows the 'ice bridge' across Nares quite well. It is the first time the feature has formed in 4 winters and the question must be "how long can it last and hold back the ice from the Lincoln Sea from flooding south into Baffin?".

If you look at the plug ,now it's lost most of the snow cover , you can see that there is the chance for 'shoreline melt' to free up the island which would then float off into Baffin. The other way I can see of the collapse is by slow break up of the ice facing Baffin until the structure is compromised.

I'd give it 2 weeks tops before we see resumed flow through Nares.

Why is this important? Well last year most of the 'old ice' from the Canadian Archipelago melted out/drifted out to melt. This leaves the C.A. , including the NW Passage comprised of the kind of ice we see in Nares. We can see the main channel leading into NW Passage already looking like Nares with an ice front and bridge behind. Once we see breakup occur in Nares we can expect similar from the NW Passage/C.A. raising the spectre of a third route out of the basin for the thicker ice piled to the North of Greenland/C.A. (as it flows through the 'feed channels' into the NW Passage 'Deep Channel' and out into Baffin).

If this occurs we can expect a far more dynamic pack with more room to 'spread out' in the Basin. With the 15% or more criteria this may be reflected in a 'high' extent (compared to recent years) that suddenly disappears as individual floes melt out in late July/early Aug.

As such we may wish to utilise the 'Arctic Mosaic' by Modis to monitor the 'ice extent' in conjunction with other extent trackers;

http://rapidfire.sci...11089.terra.4km

esp. now the whole basin is on display.

As it is the 'static' IJIS plot seems to be tracking the ice edge fragmentation (as ice breaks off floes but remains 15% or more concentration as it flows away to melt) so we need wait a couple of weeks before we see the rate of ice loss pick up (and become very rapid?).

EDIT: My punt for ice min? 3.5 million (extent) + or - 200,000

Edited March 31, 2011 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

http://rapidfire.sci...162500.250m.jpg

The above images shows the 'ice bridge' across Nares quite well. It is the first time the feature has formed in 4 winters and the question must be "how long can it last and hold back the ice from the Lincoln Sea from flooding south into Baffin?".

If you look at the plug ,now it's lost most of the snow cover , you can see that there is the chance for 'shoreline melt' to free up the island which would then float off into Baffin. The other way I can see of the collapse is by slow break up of the ice facing Baffin until the structure is compromised.

I'd give it 2 weeks tops before we see resumed flow through Nares.

Why is this important? Well last year most of the 'old ice' from the Canadian Archipelago melted out/drifted out to melt. This leaves the C.A. , including the NW Passage comprised of the kind of ice we see in Nares. We can see the main channel leading into NW Passage already looking like Nares with an ice front and bridge behind. Once we see breakup occur in Nares we can expect similar from the NW Passage/C.A. raising the spectre of a third route out of the basin for the thicker ice piled to the North of Greenland/C.A. (as it flows through the 'feed channels' into the NW Passage 'Deep Channel' and out into Baffin).

If this occurs we can expect a far more dynamic pack with more room to 'spread out' in the Basin. With the 15% or more criteria this may be reflected in a 'high' extent (compared to recent years) that suddenly disappears as individual floes melt out in late July/early Aug.

As such we may wish to utilise the 'Arctic Mosaic' by Modis to monitor the 'ice extent' in conjunction with other extent trackers;

http://rapidfire.sci...11089.terra.4km

esp. now the whole basin is on display.

As it is the 'static' IJIS plot seems to be tracking the ice edge fragmentation (as ice breaks off floes but remains 15% or more concentration as it flows away to melt) so we need wait a couple of weeks before we see the rate of ice loss pick up (and become very rapid?).

EDIT: My punt for ice min? 3.5 million (extent) + or - 200,000

Nice to see something positive occurring in the Arctic. That ice bridge, while small, is a good sign, and the recent positive AO has helped trap the cold air over the ice where it's needed, which has probably been at least partly responsible for the recent steady ice extent. This looks set to continue through the first week of April and should help delay the beginning of the annual slump towards the September minimum.

If we can hold on to a pattern similar to this for a few weeks, then perhaps an April melt similar to 2009, which only lost around 800,000km2, may be on the cards and would take us well away from the lowest 3 where we've been since November.

[Gray-Wolf]

I wish we still maintained the 'thick ice we had back in 09' BFTV

http://topaz.nersc.no/topazVisual/matlab_static_image.php?action=NA_ARC_NWA_Function&file_prefix=ARC&match_date=20090224&depth=0005&variable_name=hice

http://topaz.nersc.no/topazVisual/matlab_static_image.php?action=NA_ARC_NWA_Function&file_prefix=ARC&match_date=20110224&depth=0005&variable_name=hice

(sadly the 'latest image is still stuck at Feb 24th so the comparison is done then!)

to fight off an average 'summer melt season' but ,to me, it is very clear we have a lot more young,weak F.Y. ice across the basin this year. Any thought's of 'recovery' are on hold (for me) until I see how the ice is acting in late June/Early July (by then we should have more of an idea?).

Keep up the positive thinking though!

[stewfox]

to fight off an average 'summer melt season' but ,to me, it is very clear we have a lot more young,weak F.Y. ice across the basin this year. Any thought's of 'recovery' are on hold (for me) until I see how the ice is acting in late June/Early July (by then we should have more of an idea?).

Keep up the positive thinking though!

Looking how IJIS is going up and up

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

I wouldn't rule out a very late max spread

[The PIT]

Damn just when it was all going to melt this summer.

Surprised by that so now it's fourth lowest. Nice to see Hudson bay recover after refusing too freeze for most of the winter.

Nothing to say we can't have a good summer for retaining ice though is there.