844 replies to this topic

[stewfox]

Gray-Wolf, on 05 October 2010 - 12:29 , said:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

If you look at the large area of ice to the North of Greenland,you will see in March 2010 it was 2yrs old or greater

It didnt melt but now its one year old ice

There basing the ‘age of ice’ on thickness rather then the ‘age of the ice’, very clever


These figures show the recovery in older ice (under 5yrs)



http://www.ourplanettoday.com/exclusive-scientists-track-sharp-drop-in-oldest-thickest-arctic-sea-ice-2010-melt-season-ends-likely-setting-the-record-for-lowest-volume

[BornFromTheVoid]

IJIS has updated and yesterdays gain has been upped to about 95,000km2.
Meanwhile on CT, Antarctic ice area anomaly is back into positive territory, while the Arctic reamains more than 1,400,000km2 below average.

Looking at the DMI SSTAs, we can see how the ice pack is being shaped by the anomalies.
This images from the 25th Sept shows where the strongest anomalies are around the Arctic ocean.
This image for today shows that the ice has mostly grown along where the negative or lower anomalies were and have progressed very little into the positive anomalies.
Saying that, the positive anomalies are much reduced compared to this time 10 days ago

[Gray-Wolf]

stewfox, on 05 October 2010 - 15:57 , said:

If you look at the large area of ice to the North of Greenland,you will see in March 2010 it was 2yrs old or greater

It didn't melt but now its one year old ice

There basing the ‘age of ice’ on thickness rather then the ‘age of the ice’, very clever


These figures show the recovery in older ice (under 5yrs)



http://www.ourplanet...></span></span>

I think you need to re-run the season, both drift and melt;

http://www7320.nrlss...ips2/index.html

and then you'll see where that ice went (plenty did melt and the rest flowed both out of Fram and out into Beaufort, and melt). This is the worrying thing about the changes up north. We all witness them (only 4 hrs old if we use MODIS) and then we get folk denying they occurred when the 'evidence' is there and we've all just witnessed it? How can we have balance amongst such shenanigans?

Edited by Gray-Wolf, 05 October 2010 - 18:17 .

[stewfox]

s

Gray-Wolf, on 05 October 2010 - 18:17 , said:

I think you need to re-run the season, both drift and melt;

http://www7320.nrlss...ips2/index.html

and then you'll see where that ice went (plenty did melt and the rest flowed both out of Fram and out into Beaufort, and melt). This is the worrying thing about the changes up north. We all witness them (only 4 hrs old if we use MODIS) and then we get folk denying they occurred when the 'evidence' is there and we've all just witnessed it? How can we have balance amongst such shenanigans?

Sometimes we are blind and just need leading.

Will that do as an apology ? I understand what you getting at now.

Edited by stewfox, 06 October 2010 - 08:19 .

[Climate Man]

Whatever your views and or camp, it has been a very interesting year so far with very slow melts, fast melts and a rapid re-freeze. Wilst I don't agree with GW generally, one has to admit that ice, age, thickness an denisty are more important than extent. However, if there is to be a repair of this type of ice, then extent is a good starting point and things are very positive currently.

[barrel1234]

Yes, it really has been an exciting year and continues the potential to keep on be so exciting well into 2011. No doubt it will keep all of us on our toes.

It will be so interesting to see where the maximum will get upto, as JoeBastar)di from accuweather has stated so many times, there was no death spiral after 2007 when many people were predicting albedo effects to really take over and deplete the ice over the next few years untill there was none left for the minimums, however this obviously has not been the case, subsequent years although low show no signs of a death spiral, and if ice extents continue to grow over the next 10 years as many scientists are now saying surely the albedo that many people have been frequently quoting as having a major effect in ice loss will turn around and make the ice growth even stronger. I say watch this space, I think there is so much evidence pointing towards growth, you can't close your eyes to a cooling PDO, It might mean in 10 years if we are all still around we will all be wearing an extra layer of clothing when we are walking around in the winters due to weather coming from an increased pool of cold air to our north.

Ok, Ice thickness and age of Ice I hear you cry! After the partial recovery from 2007 and the onset of strong la ninas forecast in the next 5-10 years and lower sun activity than what we have seen in the last 10 years there is scope for there to be a lot of 'older' ice around- ever heard of that saying -'every birthday I seem to get a year older'..... well thats just it, every year ice survives it will get a year older!. I have to admit, I was worried for the arctic back in 2007 but the potential for regrowth in the next couple of years cannt be ignored.

Edited by barrel1234, 06 October 2010 - 11:11 .

[Gray-Wolf]

Climate Man, on 06 October 2010 - 08:27 , said:

Whatever your views and or camp, it has been a very interesting year so far with very slow melts, fast melts and a rapid re-freeze. Whilst I don't agree with GW generally, one has to admit that ice, age, thickness an density are more important than extent. However, if there is to be a repair of this type of ice, then extent is a good starting point and things are very positive currently.

I fully agree! We need a 'thick layer' of permanent ice just to stop the halocline taking the hammering it has been taking over the past 12 years or so. Extent is an obvious part of that. What is worrying is that the 'spring adventurers' found the pack already allowing swells to pass beneath it and reports from the Canadian Ice breaker fleet report having to be more careful as now they have to contend with swells whilst breaking the ice ,a thing that they have not needed to do before.

Anyhoos, a large extent is a start and then holding onto a large extent (i.e. 1970'2/80's type extents?) through summer to keep a portion of ice cover over 1/2 of the basin would also help settle things down. Sub Data shows us the the last 50 years of the 1900's saw the depth of the perennial halved so we know the kind of speed we are looking at for a 'recovery' to where the Arctic used to be.

I just don't see that we have that much cooling in front of us and 20yrs rebuild could be lost to 1 'perfect storm ' summer. If I had to bet I'd say that ice levels will continue on their downward trend and will be 'finished off' by a 'perfect storm' some time over the next 10yrs (or less?). I think I'd get better odds betting on a sustained recovery though!

Edited by Gray-Wolf, 06 October 2010 - 11:08 .

[The PIT]

Gray-Wolf, on 06 October 2010 - 11:07 , said:

I just don't see that we have that much cooling in front of us and 20yrs rebuild could be lost to 1 'perfect storm ' summer. If I had to bet I'd say that ice levels will continue on their downward trend and will be 'finished off' by a 'perfect storm' some time over the next 10yrs (or less?). I think I'd get better odds betting on a sustained recovery though!

That long GW!!!!!

I bet you a virtual barrel of cider it's still ice there 2020. Presuming we're still posting here of course.

Edited by The PIT, 06 October 2010 - 11:11 .

[Yorkshiresnows]

barrel1234, on 06 October 2010 - 11:06 , said:

<br />Yes, it really has been an exciting year and continues the potential to keep on be so exciting well into 2011.   No doubt it will keep all of us on our toes.<br /><br /> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; It will be so interesting to see where the maximum will get upto, as JoeBastar)di from accuweather has stated so many times, there was no death spiral after 2007 when many people were predicting albedo effects to really take over and deplete the ice over the next few years untill there was none left for the minimums, however this obviously has not been the case, subsequent years although low show no signs of a death spiral, and if ice extents continue to grow over the next 10 years as many scientists are now saying surely the albedo that many people have been frequently quoting as having a major effect in ice loss will turn around and make the ice growth even stronger.   I say watch this space, I think there is so much evidence pointing towards growth, you can't close your eyes to a cooling PDO,  It might mean in 10 years if we are all still around we will all be wearing an extra layer of clothing when we are walking around in the winters due to weather coming from an increased pool of  cold air to our north.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br /><br />   Ok, Ice thickness and age of Ice I hear you cry!   After the partial recovery from 2007 and the onset of strong la ninas forecast in the next 5-10 years and lower sun activity than what we have seen in the last 10 years there is scope for there to be a lot of 'older' ice around- ever heard of that saying -'every birthday I seem to get a year older'..... well thats just it, every year ice survives it will get a year older!.   I have to admit, I was worried for the arctic back in 2007 but the potential for regrowth in the next couple of years cannt be ignored.<br />

<br /><br /><br />

Nice post. Very much agree.

Y.S

[Gray-Wolf]

barrel1234, on 06 October 2010 - 11:06 , said:

OK, Ice thickness and age of Ice I hear you cry! After the partial recovery from 2007 and the onset of strong la Nina's forecast in the next 5-10 years and lower sun activity than what we have seen in the last 10 years there is scope for there to be a lot of 'older' ice around- ever heard of that saying -'every birthday I seem to get a year older'..... well thats just it, every year ice survives it will get a year older!. I have to admit, I was worried for the arctic back in 2007 but the potential for regrowth in the next couple of years can't be ignored.

Please read my reply to stew a few posts back and spend a bit of time looking at the way the Beaufort Gyre/trans polar drift works. This years continuation of the degradation of the pack;
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
highlights why we are ending up with a younger and younger 'perennial pack'. Climate changes are also leading to a 'different type' of ice (basal melt and higher precipitation above) with different qualities to the 'old ice'. Again we need do only apples with apples.......

EDIT: I know of this 'experiment' where a sweetie was rolled out flat and round and two more (of the same sweet) were rolled into a ball. A two year old was given the choice of either and they consistently chose the 'big' flat one...........any of that going on here??? (apparently by 4yrs they can suss which is 'more' and not 'biggest'/more extent.....)

Edited by Gray-Wolf, 06 October 2010 - 15:50 .

[stewfox]

barrel1234, on 06 October 2010 - 11:06 , said:

It might mean in 10 years if we are all still around we will all be wearing an extra layer of clothing when we are walking around in the winters due to weather coming from an increased pool of cold air to our north.

I am hoping a few of us will be around in 10 years time

[BornFromTheVoid]

We're just about 40,000km2 off 6m (before the usual upward revision) now and about 110,000km2 behind 05 which averaged nearly 90,000km2/day for the next 10 days, which is certainly beatable! Staying ahead of 08 may be a problem though, as this gained about 150,000km2/day from the 5th-15th!
On CT, Arctic sea ice area is beginning to move closer to average, though still over 1,300,000km2 off. Antarctic ice is still slightly above long term figures, pushing global sea ice towards just 1m below average.
Looking at the modis images, ice is still powering through the Nares strait, with a slight build up of ice occurring just below an Island along the strait near the Greenland coast. Whether it accumulates and eventually clogs things up is yet to be seen, but something to watch at least http://rapidfire.sci...0277.terra.250m
Ice continues to flow, albeit quite slowly, through the channels in the Canadian Archipelago, though I imagine this will come to a halt soon as the ie thickens and consolidates

[stewfox]

etc

Gray-Wolf, on 06 October 2010 - 12:34 , said:

Please read my reply to stew a few posts back and spend a bit of time looking at the way the Beaufort gyre/trans polar drift works. This years continuation of the degradation of the pack;
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
highlights why we are ending up with a younger and younger 'perennial pack'. Climate changes are also leading to a 'different type' of ice (basal melt and higher precipitation above) with different qualities to the 'old ice'. Again we need do only apples with apples.......

Out of interest when does 2^nd yr ice become 3^rd yr year ice and 3^rd yr become 4^th year etc. From the date of re freeze or from some other point ?.

Its states

------------
Whether younger multiyear ice (two or three years old) in the Arctic Ocean will continue to age and thicken depends on two things: first, how much of that ice stays in the Arctic instead of exiting into the North Atlantic through Fram Strait; and second, whether the ice survives its transit across the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas or instead melts away
------------

How do they know ‘old ice is being shipped out’. Are we referring to blocks of older ice ?.

I assume historically Fram didn’t ship much out 20yrs ago

A simple link for ‘additional reading would be fine for me’

Edited by stewfox, 06 October 2010 - 13:57 .

[oldsnowywizard]

NaDamantaSam, on 06 October 2010 - 13:20 , said:

We're just about 40,000km2 off 6m (before the usual upward revision) now and about 110,000km2 behind 05 which averaged nearly 90,000km2/day for the next 10 days, which is certainly beatable! Staying ahead of 08 may be a problem though, as this gained about 150,000km2/day from the 5th-15th!
On CT, Arctic sea ice area is beginning to move closer to average, though still over 1,300,000km2 off. Antarctic ice is still slightly above long term figures, pushing global sea ice towards just 1m below average.
Looking at the modis images, ice is still powering through the Nares strait, with a slight build up of ice occurring just below an Island along the strait near the Greenland coast. Whether it accumulates and eventually clogs things up is yet to be seen, but something to watch at least http://rapidfire.sci...0277.terra.250m
Ice continues to flow, albeit quite slowly, through the channels in the Canadian Archipelago, though I imagine this will come to a halt soon as the ie thickens and consolidates

already hit the 6million barrier... quite an extraordinary turn around in extent... GW I think thats one of the few semi positive glass half full posts I have ever seen from you... Extent certainly helps ;-) its true its a start and when Ice grows it grows in every direction leading to thicker ice.. looking at some of the American navy posts it seems quite possible for there to be +5 meter areas of ice in a winter.. so we just hope that this winter there are more of these and they grow in protected areas not to be shipped out of the ice lanes... We can but hope.. All the cold continues to be bottled up in the right areas so far and it looks like this will continue... SSTs are coming down nicely roughly 1-2 degrees every 3/4 days.. which will of course speed up as the nights get shorted and the temps get colder...

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

stewfox, on 06 October 2010 - 13:56 , said:

I assume historically Fram didn’t ship much out 20yrs ago

A simple link for ‘additional reading would be fine for me’

I asked that question about Fram towards the back of the old thread, never got an answer. Would be good to get some understanding of what's changed

[Gray-Wolf]

NorthNorfolkWeather, on 06 October 2010 - 15:44 , said:

I asked that question about Fram towards the back of the old thread, never got an answer. Would be good to get some understanding of what's changed

I think you need a -ve PDO setup for it really to ship out ice. The past 4 years have been quite slow really (when compared to other years through the 70's and 80's) .I imagine a La Nina might also 'pick up' the synoptics you're looking for?

Thanks O.S.W.! I'm not all "doom and Gloom" I just can't see the data any other way?

[The PIT]

Gray-Wolf, on 06 October 2010 - 15:53 , said:

I think you need a -ve PDO setup for it really to ship out ice. The past 4 years have been quite slow really (when compared to other years through the 70's and 80's) .I imagine a La Nina might also 'pick up' the synoptics you're looking for?

Thanks O.S.W.! I'm not all "doom and Gloom" I just can't see the data any other way?

GW you're more miserable than me...... LOL.

I was disappointed by how quickly the ice fell away this year despite a good start. Fingers crossed this year will be a record refreeze. Glass half full approach.

[Gray-Wolf]

The PIT, on 06 October 2010 - 16:19 , said:

GW you're more miserable than me...... LOL.

I was disappointed by how quickly the ice fell away this year despite a good start. Fingers crossed this year will be a record refreeze. Glass half full approach.

Pit , you and I deal with similar things at opposite ends of the age bracket so we're allowed to 'displace' our malcontent nature's (I'm sure the Guy's understand!)

If you look back I was full of "it won't last", "it's all outside the basin" posts this spring whilst all and sundry ( apart from the usual suspects) appeared to be 'happy clappy' about a thin skim of ice beyond the Arctic (rolled out thin sweet as opposed to two rolled together in a ball?).

As ever 'Weather' played it's part in this years melt but , yet again, the 'normal Fram service' (when present) shipped out all of the older ice leaving us back where we were (but with less 'old ice') and killing off the last of the 5yr plus ice (apart from that 3,000yr old chunk of 'Ward Hunt'!!!).

How do we preserve the halocline when ice is so 'weird'/thin' as to allow swells to pass , unhindered, beneath it?

How can we grow good , thick , keeled, perennial with warm water 3m below the surface and extra snowfall pressing the ice down into it???

Edited by Gray-Wolf, 06 October 2010 - 16:32 .

[barrel1234]

Gray-Wolf, on 06 October 2010 - 16:32 , said:

How can we grow good , thick , keeled, perennial with warm water 3m below the surface and extra snowfall pressing the ice down into it???

Well from records the arctic would have been ice-free *or very colse* a certain number of thousand years ago (60-100k years if I stand correct??), and the ice came back....... so why couldnt the ice build up once again now?


I might be off with my dates but you get my general point


also my instincts tell me that there is probably a negative feedback somewhere with melting ice, possibly melting ice- more cold less saline water and quicker re-freezes. Im sure i could dig up research on this but just seems like common sense to me.

Edited by barrel1234, 06 October 2010 - 16:53 .

[Gray-Wolf]

barrel1234, on 06 October 2010 - 16:47 , said:

Well from records the arctic would have been ice-free *or very close* a certain number of thousand years ago (60-100k years if I stand correct??), and the ice came back....... so why couldn't the ice build up once again now?


I might be off with my dates but you get my general point


also my instincts tell me that there is probably a negative feedback somewhere with melting ice, possibly melting ice- more cold less saline water and quicker re-freezes. I'm sure i could dig up research on this but just seems like common sense to me.

I fully agree Barrel and were it not for what happened 23,000yrs ago we'd not have ice in the basin over summer. This is what I'm on about? Our current climate would quite happily live with a 'seasonal pack' were it not for the 'hangover ' from the last glaciation. The ice cover (albedo impact) and Halocline enabled us to 'hold onto' the last vestiges of the last glaciation. now we are seeing those 'vestiges' go (ice sheets like the one on Devonshire Island ,permafrost,Ice shelfs [like ward Hunt...all that's left of the full shelf that ran the length of Ellesmere Island in 1900], perennial ice [none older than 5yrs in the Basin now,....apart from that 1/4 of ward Hunt that fell off this Aug which is upwards of 3,000yrs old])

This unusual 'warming' ,over the past 150yrs, has proved enough of a push to 'end' the last glaciation proper and leave us with an ice free summer Arctic and a move towards very little permafrost (with the humongous release of methane/CO2 this involves) with no more ice shelfs in the Arctic and no ice sheets in the Canadian Archipelago.

Sadly the odd 'warming' we are seeing will be amplified by the loss of all that permafrost (and all those GHG's it'll/is already release/releasing) and the introduction of that mass of dark water (80% absorption) instead of that mass of sea ice (90%+ reflection).........

EDIT: Discovery (sat TV) has this to say;

http://news.discover...#mkcpgn=rssnws1

EDIT:
O.M.G. even the Mails is on one about Polar Bears!!!
http://www.dailymail...Arctic-ice.html

Edited by Gray-Wolf, 06 October 2010 - 18:13 .