Status Quo update from NHC on Earl, largely due I think to the fact that Recon is just entering the system (making use of a training flight rather than a scheduled flight! )
Major Hurricane Earl
Started by Iceberg, Aug 25 2010 14:40
226 replies to this topic
#41
Iceberg
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Posted 29 August 2010 - 09:08
11/04/11 "Summer 2011: Sunny warm hot at times and thundery at times. A perfect combination"
#42
Iceberg
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Posted 29 August 2010 - 10:06
Recon from the experimental flight have found pressure of 983mb this is quite a bit below the NHC forecast 1 hr ago of 989mb.
Surface winds so far are around the 55-60 kt mark compared to the 55kt NHC forecast.
Their is little doubt that Earl is on the edge of Hurricane strength now, particularly once winds respond to the pressure...
Surface winds so far are around the 55-60 kt mark compared to the 55kt NHC forecast.
Their is little doubt that Earl is on the edge of Hurricane strength now, particularly once winds respond to the pressure...
11/04/11 "Summer 2011: Sunny warm hot at times and thundery at times. A perfect combination"
#43
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Hurricane Tracker
Posted 29 August 2010 - 11:20
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Isle of Lewis
The below are taken from Ness weather station
94.4 mph Highest wind speed recorded on the 23/12/2007 for winter 07/08
105.9 mph Highest wind speed recorded on the 18/1/09 for winter 08/09
78.8 mph Highest wind speed recorded on the 8/9/09 for winter 09/10
103.6 mph Highest wind speed recorded on the 3/2/11 for winter 10/11
100.9 mph Highest wind speed so far on the 25/11/11 for winter 11/12
105.9 proof
78.8 mph proof
Isle of Lewis
The below are taken from Ness weather station
94.4 mph Highest wind speed recorded on the 23/12/2007 for winter 07/08
105.9 mph Highest wind speed recorded on the 18/1/09 for winter 08/09
78.8 mph Highest wind speed recorded on the 8/9/09 for winter 09/10
103.6 mph Highest wind speed recorded on the 3/2/11 for winter 10/11
100.9 mph Highest wind speed so far on the 25/11/11 for winter 11/12
105.9 proof
78.8 mph proof
#44
Paranoid
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Posted 29 August 2010 - 11:22
Could you ever envision a situation where the lack of honeycomb centered chocolate bars could be the direct cause of a lethal radiation leak?
#45
Paranoid
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Posted 29 August 2010 - 12:10
Almost there, should be a hurricane by the 4pm advisory.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 291159
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
...EARL A LITTLE STRONGER...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 57.6W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO
IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BEGINNING
WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PATH OF THE CENTER OF EARL. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTNT32 KNHC 291159
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
...EARL A LITTLE STRONGER...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 57.6W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO
IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BEGINNING
WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PATH OF THE CENTER OF EARL. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Could you ever envision a situation where the lack of honeycomb centered chocolate bars could be the direct cause of a lethal radiation leak?
#46
Paranoid
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Posted 29 August 2010 - 12:41
Triple post, i apologise.
Earl is now a Hurricane
000
WTNT62 KNHC 291232
TCUAT2
HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
830 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
...EARL ATTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT EARL HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMIM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75
MPH...120 KM/HR.
SUMMARY OF 830 AM AST...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 57.7W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Earl is now a Hurricane
000
WTNT62 KNHC 291232
TCUAT2
HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
830 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
...EARL ATTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH...
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT EARL HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMIM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75
MPH...120 KM/HR.
SUMMARY OF 830 AM AST...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 57.7W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Could you ever envision a situation where the lack of honeycomb centered chocolate bars could be the direct cause of a lethal radiation leak?
#47
Jason T
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Posted 29 August 2010 - 13:02
Been following this through comments on here lately very interesting, the power of nature.
http://www.stormpuls...&ml=1&ql=0&sl=0
http://www.stormpuls...&ml=1&ql=0&sl=0
Model output watching is not a very relaxing hobby to have...
#48
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Hurricane Tracker
Posted 29 August 2010 - 13:10
Good afternoon Hurricane Earl
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Isle of Lewis
The below are taken from Ness weather station
94.4 mph Highest wind speed recorded on the 23/12/2007 for winter 07/08
105.9 mph Highest wind speed recorded on the 18/1/09 for winter 08/09
78.8 mph Highest wind speed recorded on the 8/9/09 for winter 09/10
103.6 mph Highest wind speed recorded on the 3/2/11 for winter 10/11
100.9 mph Highest wind speed so far on the 25/11/11 for winter 11/12
105.9 proof
78.8 mph proof
Isle of Lewis
The below are taken from Ness weather station
94.4 mph Highest wind speed recorded on the 23/12/2007 for winter 07/08
105.9 mph Highest wind speed recorded on the 18/1/09 for winter 08/09
78.8 mph Highest wind speed recorded on the 8/9/09 for winter 09/10
103.6 mph Highest wind speed recorded on the 3/2/11 for winter 10/11
100.9 mph Highest wind speed so far on the 25/11/11 for winter 11/12
105.9 proof
78.8 mph proof
#49
Paranoid
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Posted 29 August 2010 - 13:14
Every 15 minutes or so Earl's appearence keeps improving. Possibility of RI underway?
In any case, i suspect Danielle moving away has helped things, Earl looked a bit squashed on the northern edge earlier today. Vortex message below says that Earl has formed an open eye ( i think, still can't remember for sure what all the individual bits mean)
000
URNT12 KNHC 291233
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072010
A. 29/11:48:50Z
B. 17 deg 07 min N
057 deg 41 min W
C. 850 mb 1317 m
D. 45 kt
E. 218 deg 55 nm
F. 317 deg 44 kt
G. 220 deg 61 nm
H. 986 mb
I. 17 C / 1523 m
J. 21 C / 1527 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. OPEN SW-NE
M. C20
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0207A EARL OB 02
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 81 KT NE QUAD 12:07:30Z
MAX SFC WIND OUTBOUND 64 KT NE QUAD
In any case, i suspect Danielle moving away has helped things, Earl looked a bit squashed on the northern edge earlier today. Vortex message below says that Earl has formed an open eye ( i think, still can't remember for sure what all the individual bits mean)
000
URNT12 KNHC 291233
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072010
A. 29/11:48:50Z
B. 17 deg 07 min N
057 deg 41 min W
C. 850 mb 1317 m
D. 45 kt
E. 218 deg 55 nm
F. 317 deg 44 kt
G. 220 deg 61 nm
H. 986 mb
I. 17 C / 1523 m
J. 21 C / 1527 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. OPEN SW-NE
M. C20
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0207A EARL OB 02
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 81 KT NE QUAD 12:07:30Z
MAX SFC WIND OUTBOUND 64 KT NE QUAD
Edited by Paranoid, 29 August 2010 - 13:21 .
Could you ever envision a situation where the lack of honeycomb centered chocolate bars could be the direct cause of a lethal radiation leak?
#50
Katherine
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Posted 29 August 2010 - 14:35
Change of thread title needed - Earl upgraded to a Category 1 Hurricane!
#51
Paranoid
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Posted 29 August 2010 - 16:59
GDFL still forecasting Earl to become a Cat 5 (and to flucuate between 4 and 5 a few times). SSTs in the area are above average at around 29-30c so some RI could be on the cards.
Could you ever envision a situation where the lack of honeycomb centered chocolate bars could be the direct cause of a lethal radiation leak?
#52
Iceberg
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Posted 29 August 2010 - 17:36
Nice central eye forming, last vortex indicated a closed 20nm eye, this pass has just found pressure falling nicely, now sub 980, winds have yet to respond and the vortex from this cross has not been released yet.
172100 1720N 05847W 8425 01328 9797 +210 +167 272013 015 031 004 03
172130 1722N 05847W 8432 01316 9788 +219 +171 289005 008 028 004 03
172200 1723N 05847W 8428 01315 9784 +221 +177 084004 008 027 003 03
172230 1725N 05848W 8425 01319 9785 +218 +183 076015 018 026 003 03
172300 1726N 05849W 8431 01316 9793 +202 +189 064019 020 028 006 03
Going hand in hand with the pressure falls is the eye clearing (you can see it sunken in the zoomed visual sat below).
172100 1720N 05847W 8425 01328 9797 +210 +167 272013 015 031 004 03
172130 1722N 05847W 8432 01316 9788 +219 +171 289005 008 028 004 03
172200 1723N 05847W 8428 01315 9784 +221 +177 084004 008 027 003 03
172230 1725N 05848W 8425 01319 9785 +218 +183 076015 018 026 003 03
172300 1726N 05849W 8431 01316 9793 +202 +189 064019 020 028 006 03
Going hand in hand with the pressure falls is the eye clearing (you can see it sunken in the zoomed visual sat below).
Attached Thumbnails
Edited by Iceberg, 29 August 2010 - 17:46 .
11/04/11 "Summer 2011: Sunny warm hot at times and thundery at times. A perfect combination"
#53
Iceberg
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Posted 29 August 2010 - 17:49
The eye has opened again in the NW, slightly wider temp differential, but nothing wind wise to support raising him above 65-70kts.
I'll mention the track once the ECM comes out, but if you lived in the GOM/Caribbean I wouldn't look at the Canadian model.
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072010
A. 29/17:21:40Z
B. 17 deg 22 min N
058 deg 47 min W
C. 850 mb 1248 m
D. 65 kt
E. 141 deg 35 nm
F. 202 deg 60 kt
G. 141 deg 37 nm
H. 978 mb
I. 18 C / 1531 m
J. 22 C / 1523 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C12
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0207A EARL OB 20
MAX FL WIND 79 KT NE QUAD 15:24:00Z
MOAT 8NM WIDE CENTERED 16NM RADIUS AROUND EYE NW THRU EAST
;
I'll mention the track once the ECM comes out, but if you lived in the GOM/Caribbean I wouldn't look at the Canadian model.
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072010
A. 29/17:21:40Z
B. 17 deg 22 min N
058 deg 47 min W
C. 850 mb 1248 m
D. 65 kt
E. 141 deg 35 nm
F. 202 deg 60 kt
G. 141 deg 37 nm
H. 978 mb
I. 18 C / 1531 m
J. 22 C / 1523 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C12
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0207A EARL OB 20
MAX FL WIND 79 KT NE QUAD 15:24:00Z
MOAT 8NM WIDE CENTERED 16NM RADIUS AROUND EYE NW THRU EAST
;
Edited by Iceberg, 29 August 2010 - 17:52 .
11/04/11 "Summer 2011: Sunny warm hot at times and thundery at times. A perfect combination"
#54
Paranoid
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Posted 29 August 2010 - 17:50
Latest advisory.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 291746
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF EARL APPROACHING THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA AND
BARBUDA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 58.9W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
58.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...
24 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
TUESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
Pressure has dropped 7mb since 4pm, which equates to a little over 2mb an hour. Getting close to the rate required for RI. We should see the winds respond soon (although probably just after recon has left i imagine).
000
WTNT32 KNHC 291746
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF EARL APPROACHING THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA AND
BARBUDA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 58.9W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE
58.9 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...
24 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
TUESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
Pressure has dropped 7mb since 4pm, which equates to a little over 2mb an hour. Getting close to the rate required for RI. We should see the winds respond soon (although probably just after recon has left i imagine).
Edited by Paranoid, 29 August 2010 - 17:56 .
Could you ever envision a situation where the lack of honeycomb centered chocolate bars could be the direct cause of a lethal radiation leak?
#55
Paranoid
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- Members
- 1,020 posts
Posted 29 August 2010 - 20:53
000
WTNT32 KNHC 292046
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
...EARL STRENGTHENS...HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING SOON...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 59.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM E OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL
PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
BY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
WTNT32 KNHC 292046
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
...EARL STRENGTHENS...HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING SOON...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 59.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM E OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL
PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
BY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
Could you ever envision a situation where the lack of honeycomb centered chocolate bars could be the direct cause of a lethal radiation leak?
#56
NL
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- Members
- 2,865 posts
.....PLASTIKMAN.....
Posted 29 August 2010 - 21:02
Hurricane Earl closely followed by 97L, pretty sure it'll be named Fiona soon. Models suggesting Earl will just miss the US mainland perhaps affecting the North Carolina coast. The models however suggest the next one (97L) to become a very powerful major hurricane.
Edited by NL, 29 August 2010 - 21:03 .
It is far better to foresee even without certainty than not to foresee at all...
Jules Henri Poincaré (29 April 1854 - 17 July 1912)
Mathematician ,theoretical physicist and philosopher of science.
Jules Henri Poincaré (29 April 1854 - 17 July 1912)
Mathematician ,theoretical physicist and philosopher of science.
#57
Paranoid
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Posted 29 August 2010 - 21:09
Yes, it's interesting times out in the Atlantic at the moment. Does anyone know when the next recon is due to head out to Earl?
Could you ever envision a situation where the lack of honeycomb centered chocolate bars could be the direct cause of a lethal radiation leak?
#58
Iceberg
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- 5,292 posts
Posted 30 August 2010 - 07:36
Sorry I went out last night and didn't have time to do an update.
Looking this morning though and alot is happening still with Earl, so sorry for the length of post
Firstly how Earl is now, well NHC have upped him to an 85Kt CAT 2 based on the 97kts flight winds which seem spot on to me. The final Vortex before Recon left a couple of hrs ago, confirm some steady pressure falls over night now down to 969mb, apart from the 97kt winds in the NW quad (which isn't the strongest quad) the most important thing IMO is the stable closed eye at a nice 30nm and the 8C temp differential between inner and outer eye which is a good indication of the eye clearing.
I can't find anything to suggest that intensification and pressure drops are not continuing so it won't be long at all (possibly next recon) until Earl is made a Major CAT 3.
Recent IR sats show the eye is clearing further and a very large CDO is around it with -80 Cloud tops and strong convection.
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072010
A. 30/05:00:30Z
B. 18 deg 02 min N
061 deg 38 min W
C. 700 mb 2839 m
D. 71 kt
E. 144 deg 17 nm
F. 237 deg 68 kt
G. 144 deg 20 nm
H. 969 mb
I. 8 C / 3051 m
J. 16 C / 3027 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0307A EARL OB 17
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 97 KT NW QUAD 05:10:00Z
PR doppler should have a good view over the next day or, giving us 24hr radar coverage of the eye.
Moving on to track and what I was hinting at yesterday seems to be occuring and I am sure NHC are talking to their political masters about what to say and when to say it.
3 Graphics below, one showing the Google map for reference, showing Rhode Island, NYC, Boston etc.
One showing the ECM and GFS 00Z runs this morning.
One showing the NHC track.
The most obvious thing is that the tracks have shifted considerably westwards as feared and that NHC are now considerably out, their last update was released before the model output.
although we are not talking about a Direct hit on the mainland, we are only about 30-40 miles off Rhode Island and NYC, Manhatten, Moorhead and particularly Boston look like getting hit with something depending on just how big Earl gets, regardless of this Rain might well be a problem.
Any further shift, even a wobble westwards will be a national concern.
GFDL is still showing a CAT 5 for Earl and a very very big wind field.
NHC must move Earl's track west but the question will be how much and how much media attention it gets when the US wakes up.
I can just the imagine the US president being woken up in the middle of the night to be told that NHC have forecast a CAT 5 hurricane to hit NYC..... (Maybe a little melodramtic).
Looking this morning though and alot is happening still with Earl, so sorry for the length of post
Firstly how Earl is now, well NHC have upped him to an 85Kt CAT 2 based on the 97kts flight winds which seem spot on to me. The final Vortex before Recon left a couple of hrs ago, confirm some steady pressure falls over night now down to 969mb, apart from the 97kt winds in the NW quad (which isn't the strongest quad) the most important thing IMO is the stable closed eye at a nice 30nm and the 8C temp differential between inner and outer eye which is a good indication of the eye clearing.
I can't find anything to suggest that intensification and pressure drops are not continuing so it won't be long at all (possibly next recon) until Earl is made a Major CAT 3.
Recent IR sats show the eye is clearing further and a very large CDO is around it with -80 Cloud tops and strong convection.
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072010
A. 30/05:00:30Z
B. 18 deg 02 min N
061 deg 38 min W
C. 700 mb 2839 m
D. 71 kt
E. 144 deg 17 nm
F. 237 deg 68 kt
G. 144 deg 20 nm
H. 969 mb
I. 8 C / 3051 m
J. 16 C / 3027 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0307A EARL OB 17
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 97 KT NW QUAD 05:10:00Z
PR doppler should have a good view over the next day or, giving us 24hr radar coverage of the eye.
Moving on to track and what I was hinting at yesterday seems to be occuring and I am sure NHC are talking to their political masters about what to say and when to say it.
3 Graphics below, one showing the Google map for reference, showing Rhode Island, NYC, Boston etc.
One showing the ECM and GFS 00Z runs this morning.
One showing the NHC track.
The most obvious thing is that the tracks have shifted considerably westwards as feared and that NHC are now considerably out, their last update was released before the model output.
although we are not talking about a Direct hit on the mainland, we are only about 30-40 miles off Rhode Island and NYC, Manhatten, Moorhead and particularly Boston look like getting hit with something depending on just how big Earl gets, regardless of this Rain might well be a problem.
Any further shift, even a wobble westwards will be a national concern.
GFDL is still showing a CAT 5 for Earl and a very very big wind field.
NHC must move Earl's track west but the question will be how much and how much media attention it gets when the US wakes up.
I can just the imagine the US president being woken up in the middle of the night to be told that NHC have forecast a CAT 5 hurricane to hit NYC..... (Maybe a little melodramtic).
Attached Thumbnails
11/04/11 "Summer 2011: Sunny warm hot at times and thundery at times. A perfect combination"
#59
Iceberg
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Posted 30 August 2010 - 07:51
Just seen the radar for Earl and the eye looks in perfect health, RI must be a 40-60% probability now in the next 12hrs(which is roughly a 30mb fall in pressure, taking him to strong CAT 4).
Attached Thumbnails
Edited by Iceberg, 30 August 2010 - 07:52 .
11/04/11 "Summer 2011: Sunny warm hot at times and thundery at times. A perfect combination"
#60
Iceberg
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Posted 30 August 2010 - 08:53
Latest update is out and does shift everything further west, but not as far west as the ECM and GFS.
Rhode Island and Boston look particularly vunerable, with NYC and Manhatten very much at risk still.
Tide surges are estimated at 8-15ft, but it's still too far away to get this with very much accuracy.
Latest discussion does rather refer to the risks to the east US coast below, the bit in bold is a very good reminder, I'd imagine they were told not to talk us an east coast hit, but not to ignore it either. Re the Graphic this is the centre of the eye path, the eye will be 20-30 miles across, hurricane winds extending 80-100mph out and tropical winds 200+ miles
Intensity has been raised to 90kts.
SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED JUST PRIOR TO 0600 UTC...AN EYE HAS BEEN
OCCASIONALLY APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 25 NM ON THE ST. MAARTEN
RADAR. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A FLIGHT LEVEL MAXIMUM WIND OF 97 KT
AT 0510 UTC...AND 0600 UTC DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 90 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND IS GOOD ELSEWHERE...AND THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND SHOWS EARL REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A BROAD PEAK IN INTENSITY BETWEEN 36 AND
72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...EARL SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE GFDL.
BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
REMAINS 285/13. EARL WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH
24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
FARTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...AS EARL TURNS
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. GIVEN THE LARGE
SHIFT IN THE MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
THE LEFT...OR WEST...BUT STILL LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE SUITE.
THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT...IF ANY...PARTS OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL LATER THIS
WEEK.
Rhode Island and Boston look particularly vunerable, with NYC and Manhatten very much at risk still.
Tide surges are estimated at 8-15ft, but it's still too far away to get this with very much accuracy.
Latest discussion does rather refer to the risks to the east US coast below, the bit in bold is a very good reminder, I'd imagine they were told not to talk us an east coast hit, but not to ignore it either. Re the Graphic this is the centre of the eye path, the eye will be 20-30 miles across, hurricane winds extending 80-100mph out and tropical winds 200+ miles
Intensity has been raised to 90kts.
SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED JUST PRIOR TO 0600 UTC...AN EYE HAS BEEN
OCCASIONALLY APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 25 NM ON THE ST. MAARTEN
RADAR. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A FLIGHT LEVEL MAXIMUM WIND OF 97 KT
AT 0510 UTC...AND 0600 UTC DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 90 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND IS GOOD ELSEWHERE...AND THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND SHOWS EARL REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A BROAD PEAK IN INTENSITY BETWEEN 36 AND
72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...EARL SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE GFDL.
BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
REMAINS 285/13. EARL WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH
24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
FARTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...AS EARL TURNS
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. GIVEN THE LARGE
SHIFT IN THE MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
THE LEFT...OR WEST...BUT STILL LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE SUITE.
THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT...IF ANY...PARTS OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL LATER THIS
WEEK.
Attached Thumbnails
11/04/11 "Summer 2011: Sunny warm hot at times and thundery at times. A perfect combination"
