226 replies to this topic

[Iceberg]

Well we have TD7 following a similar path to Danielle (although a little further west and south), there is little doubt this will become Tropical Storm Earl very soon.

Intensity forecasts vary for him, GFDL takes him to a hurricane by Friday and a CAT 3 later in the run. HWRF takes him to a CAT 2 but no further. both GFS and ECM take him to a Hurricane as well.
Along his path he should have less dry air than Danielle, but is due to suffer from some Southwesterly shear at time.

This is again almost certainly a Fish, as it re-curves along a similar path to Danielle.

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA TWO DAYS AGO AND PASSED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
YESTERDAY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN. THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...AND AN
ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0...WITH DATA-T NUMBERS OF
2.5...ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUPPORT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AND
VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND THERE IS UNUSUALLY WARM
WATER OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR A
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND EVEN DESPITE THE SMALL INCREASE IN SHEAR
AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION. BOTH CLIMATOLOGY AND DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE ON
THE SIDE OF STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS OR SO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS
TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE
CYCLONE MOST LIKELY WILL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT REACHES A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LEFT BY DANIELLE. BY THEN...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IF THIS PATTERN
MATERIALIZES...IT WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AWAY
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 14.3N 30.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 14.7N 33.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 15.2N 36.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 16.0N 39.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 16.5N 42.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 18.0N 48.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 19.0N 53.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 30/1200Z 20.5N 57.0W 85 KT

[Iceberg]

Sorry forgot to post expected NHC path.

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[cookie]

Edited by cookie, 25 August 2010 - 17:19 .

[Paranoid]

Nice train of storms there, the cloudiness on the coast of Africa will probably go onto become TD8 if the models are to be believed.

[Gray-Wolf]

It'll be interesting to see how they interact with one another (IMHO) Some of the ealier models had Earl eaten by Danielle!

Should we get a third player on the field then any interactions become a tad more complex!!!

[Iceberg]

Good model agreement on both Earl and Fiona to develop both GFS and ECM.
Both to develop into Hurricanes as well.

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Edited by Iceberg, 25 August 2010 - 19:36 .

[Somerset Squall]

Winds have risen to 35kts, pressure is down to 1006mb, Earl is born!

[Paranoid]

Official confirmation now

000
WTNT32 KNHC 252029
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

...EARL...THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF CLIMATOLOGY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 32.2W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.2 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS KEEPING THE CYCLONE
OVER THE WATERS OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cookie]

[Iceberg]

Latest from NHC, basically nothing shoul get in the way of tuning Earl into quite a big hurricane

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SPIRAL BANDS
AROUND EARL HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE CYCLONE
STRUCTURE...HOWEVER...IS STILL A BIT ELONGATED ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AXIS. DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35 KT..RESPECTIVELY. USING A BLEND OF THE
TWO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT. THE OCEAN IS
WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LOW...CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...THE
LGEM...HWRF...AND SHIPS MODELS ALL SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING A
HURRICANE IN 2 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND ALSO
BRINGS EARL TO CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY BY DAY 5.

THE CENTER OF EARL HAS BEEN RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS MORNING.
A 2315 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED AN ELONGATED CENTER NEAR THE
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM...WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. HOWEVER...A SUBSEQUENT
AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS AT 2318 UTC AND A RECENT 0430 UTC TRMM IMAGE
SUGGESTED THE CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS...MUCH CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS BEST TRACK.
FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND BASED ON THESE DATA...CONTINUITY WILL BE
MAINTAINED AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS BE NEAR THE NORTHERN
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION AND CLOSE TO THE TRMM FIX. IF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER DOES REFORM FARTHER SOUTH...THE FORECAST TRACK
WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTH...OR TO THE LEFT OF THIS ADVISORY
PACKAGE.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AN ESTIMATED 285 DEGREES
AT 13 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP TROPICAL
ATLANTIC TRADE WIND FLOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AND
THE NAVY GFDN...WHICH ARE BOTH INDICATING AN EARLIER TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH
DAY 5. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS
AND IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND GFS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0900Z 15.2N 34.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 15.7N 37.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 16.4N 40.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 16.6N 43.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 16.7N 47.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 29/0600Z 17.9N 52.3W 80 KT
96HR VT 30/0600Z 20.0N 57.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 31/0600Z 22.5N 60.0W 95 KT

[cookie]

[Iceberg]

It might be very quiet here at the moment, but I have no doubt that Earl will grab more than a few of it's own headlines.
NHC have been hinting for awhile now that if Danielle turns right soon rather than later and Earl is a little slower in development, then it might miss the ridge weakness created by Danielle.
Well GFS and therefore GFDL and HWRF have progged such a thing and the GFDL doesn't make pretty viewing if you live on the US east coast.
It generates a strengthening Hurricane moving westwards just below CAT 5 at the end of the run, this should NOT be discounted and shows that the mixture of Danielle, Earl and Fiona will be a complicated load of stuff to follow !

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Edited by Iceberg, 26 August 2010 - 18:29 .

[Paranoid]

Odd that Earl's projected pressure at just below Cat 5 is only one mbar lower than the Cat 2 Alex earlier this year, although Alex had an anomalous low pressure for a storm of its strength. Danielle, Earl and Fiona could well contribute towards a fair majority of this season's ACE value, i wouldn't be surprised if some of them got values of over 30.

[Iceberg]

As per the Danielle thread heres the Earl plot as well.

Your right Paranoid you would really expect a pressure of 920-930 to support those winds, I tend to find that GFDL has better wind handling and HWRF has better pressure predictions, both of them though have been very wrong at times this year !

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• 

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Ice!

I'd seen the earlier GFS run that had Earl being a tad naughty! I think it more likey (?) that he will slip through and be more of the type of 'Cane that draws the crowds on here?

I'm more than happy to have the remnants plump up the temps over here (just in time for the kids to be back at school and for me to grab some 'Golden Time'!

As for 'extra's ,we may have 2 more to look at (the one now highlighted and the one still working to the African Coast?)

Edited by Gray-Wolf, 26 August 2010 - 19:28 .

[Iceberg]

Morning GW Earl is looking better this morning IMO.

Covection is centred and the the elongated look is going, today could be the day Earl finally looks like a strong TS.

It still looks set to miss the first ridge weakness from Danielle, but should turn norther in the second, although this is very close to the west coast and only a small change will cause landfall in North America.

As NHC say very good model guidance still that this will reach a Major Hurricane status, if it can sort itself out.

AFTER LOSING MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...EARL
HAS DEVELOPED NEW THUNDERSTORM CELLS AROUND THE LARGE AND
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION TONIGHT. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND
STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD A WARMER OCEAN AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNDER RELATIVELY
LIGHT SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
EARL WILL DEVELOP A DEEP CIRCULATION SURROUNDED BY A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS NORMALLY IS AN INDICATION OF
STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...BOTH THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS DEVELOP
EARL INTO AN INTENSE HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ON THIS BASIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR EARL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
THEREAFTER.

[Gray-Wolf]

Yeah ,it looked like the storm was going in around the Carolina's (or north) and if it's a major then it could cause quite a splash.

Lets see what the rest of the days convection brings us?

[Jonathan F.]

NYC a possibility?

The idea of a hurricane there really interests me from a weather point of view although clearly it would cause huge damage, which is not good.

[Paranoid]

It has happened before i think. The New England region certainly has been hit by hurricanes before. I think New York was affected by a hurricane in 1938, that's the last major one i can think of.

[Jack Wales]

List of New York hurricanes

Edited by Jack Wales, 27 August 2010 - 12:32 .