General Storm Discussion Thread

[staplehurst]

6z now replaced with the 18z - where's the 12z Analysis?!

Anyway, from the 18z it would appear that the stuff over Breast Brest is a trough ahead of the cold front, so there is probably a small smidgen of hope but I doubt it will come to anything.

Edited July 20, 2010 by staplehurst

[Paul Sherman]

Just snapped this fella walking past kicking up the dust :lol:

[NL]

Why do we need the regional threads open for? No point, this thread is not full unless its thundering here and i start me spamming session. :lol:

Dull and wet, i think the dark skies is partially down to cloud coming in from the north sea and the fact the sun is getting lower in the sky. But its the sort of sky that can produce a flash of lightning so heres hoping!

, i'm right on the coast and i can assure you that the low cloud (for once) is not coming ashore. Just had another pretty intense period of rain and still not out the woods yet, no heard thunder this time but still warm and humid so time perhaps for a late evening storm.

[remymartin]

Just snapped this fella walking past kicking up the dust

lol quality :lol:

[Nick F]

6z now replaced with the 18z - where's the 12z Analysis?!

Dunno, but the 18z fax shows nicely the convergence zone/trough that has developed storms this evening just ahead of the cold front across N/NE England.

http://www.netweather.tv/fax/PPVA89.png

[Shane]

Oh Rain Today why do u mock me according to it (putting my postcode in) it says thunderstorm .....and the forecast ahead .... thunderstom... Arrrghh!! ah thats better <_<

[staplehurst]

It didn't correspond with their original forecast for today, so they've 'swept it under the carpet'.

haha, most likely

[Neilsouth]

RIP UK THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN & SOUTH EASTERN ENGLAND <_<

Har Har , i've seen thunderstorms this year good ones in fact and an apparant supercell

What i haven't seen for sometime is a spanish plume which you don't get in the states

[RichardR]

I see that the metoffice forecast for tomorrow has been downgraded to The day will then be a mix of sunny spells and a few scattered showers. from the previous "thundery showers with hail"

:Ballwash: Uh I mean

Edited July 20, 2010 by RichardR

[Sunny Android]

Poor old Wales getting another battering judging by the radar. At least the Sheep will be clean.

And it's tracked North West. Just heard the BBC Radio Merseyside local news at 9pm who advised, 50 streets flooded and Fire Service pumping out property. Further NW, the River Douglas near Wigan has now burst it's banks. This is not yet on the Environment Agency flood pages.

Not a flash of lightning too be seen and been pitch black over that way for an hour now !

[Paul R]

And it's tracked North West. Just heard the BBC Radio Merseyside local news at 9pm who advised, 50 streets flooded and Fire Service pumping out property. Further NW, the River Douglas near Wigan has now burst it's banks. This is not yet on the Environment Agency flood pages.

Not a flash of lightning too be seen and been pitch black over that way for an hour now !

Not a sausage here. Been looking out for lightning given the intensity of the rain on radar, but nothing. No distant rumbles or anything. Still got the heaviest rain to come but no doubt it'll weaken as the rainband comes off the mountains.

[Nick F]

6z now replaced with the 18z - where's the 12z Analysis?!

I have found the missing fax for 12z today, though I can't tell you where!

Not much change in the position of the front by 18z this evening on the latest t+00 fax:

[staplehurst]

I have found the missing fax for 12z today, though I can't tell you where!

Not much change in the position of the front by 18z this evening on the latest t+00 fax:

ooh ta

[dogs32]

I see that the metoffice forecast for tomorrow has been downgraded to The day will then be a mix of sunny spells and a few scattered showers. from the previous "thundery showers with hail"

:Ballwash: Uh I mean

classic

[Paul Sherman]

Har Har , i've seen thunderstorms this year good ones in fact and an apparant supercell

What i haven't seen for sometime is a spanish plume which you don't get in the states

No well on the 6th June which is the only time this year that Essex has heard Thunder I was chasing a Tornado in St Charles (Iowa) - Close one this but I think the Tornadic Supercell might just win and I am happy with my choice

They might not get Spanish Plumes Neil but they get a cranking Low Level Jet almost every Night which kicks off Plume Type MCS's About the size of Europe, again I think I might just choose the bigger MCS <_<

BTW The reason we are not getting the proper plumes is all due to the "Plumes" not being advected far enough North-West before de-stabilisation takes place, the plumes of old had the Spanish Plume originating over the Central part of Spain and then the moist axis moving over the bay of Biscay towards Southern Ireland, when a Low pressure came in storms would form much further West and the troughs seemed to be alligned better (Negative Tilt) SE-NW & Hence proper MCS's would hit most of the South Coast from Kent to Devon and move North North East up the Plume.

The Plumes of the last 5 - 10 years have only been running up through France and most Troughs have been Positively Tilted SW-NE, Hence the Storms have been running more NNE Or ENE & There is your answer, instead of the Uk it is NW France, Benelux and Holland / Germany getting the action.

We need a bit of luck on our side, nothing else!

Paul S

[remymartin]

I think its time for a little humorous relief by the legend daniel corbett and his polar bear thrust .

[ZONE 51]

whats the bet s/se/ea breaks out isolated electric storms towards late night/early hrs ? ok no forcing but dont give up , because ive known Ac/Cas/Floccus widespread and continuous like today and this eve being the forerunner of storms , so is there a chance something could activate to develop a storm?

[dogs32]

whats the bet s/se/ea breaks out isolated electric storms towards late night/early hrs ? ok no forcing but dont give up , because ive known Ac/Cas/Floccus widespread and continuous like today and this eve being the forerunner of storms , so is there a chance something could activate to develop a storm?

here is the forecast

Edited July 20, 2010 by Pat Carter

[Nick F]

BTW The reason we are not getting the proper plumes is all due to the "Plumes" not being advected far enough North-West before de-stabilisation takes place, the plumes of old had the Spanish Plume originating over the Central part of Spain and then the moist axis moving over the bay of Biscay towards Southern Ireland, when a Low pressure came in storms would form much further West and the troughs seemed to be alligned better (Negative Tilt) SE-NW & Hence proper MCS's would hit most of the South Coast from Kent to Devon and move North North East up the Plume.

The Plumes of the last 5 - 10 years have only been running up through France and most Troughs have been Positively Tilted SW-NE, Hence the Storms have been running more NNE Or ENE & There is your answer, instead of the Uk it is NW France, Benelux and Holland / Germany getting the action.

Totally agree with the kind of synoptic set-up we need for a Spanish Plume. Unfortunately, the presence of the Azores ridge close to our SW this summer, rather than a trough, has stopped the classic set-up from happening so far this year.

Maybe, just maybe, if an ex-hurricane later in August meanders our way across the N Atlantic, this may change fortunes. But, bit of a long shot.

Anyway, I still remember the days before internet when I used to watch the evening BBC forecast one warm humid summer's evening, seeing a huge black blob over western France on the IR satellite images that showed the top of a large MCS headed for southern England. When was the last time that happened!

[liambailey09]

Looks like thursday is next chance for me But knowing my luck...

[Guest]

I don't know if it will be thundery, but there are some huge rainfall totals forecast on the NAE for parts of SW Scotland in the next 48 hours, especially around Arran:

[staplehurst]

I don't know if it will be thundery, but there are some huge rainfall totals forecast on the NAE for parts of SW Scotland in the next 48 hours, especially around Arran:

I had to squint at the screen to see that says 118mm!

[Guest]

I had to squint at the screen to see that says 118mm!

I didn't realise it was 118mm at first, I thought it was 11mm and 8mm but the colours looked a but funky so I double checked the scale at the bottom. I wouldn't fancy being on Arran if 5 inches of rain falls in a short period.

Edited July 20, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Just for information -

When I drove down to Tesco's in Hastings today - I noticed in one of the weekly locals a small article on last Weds 'Supercell' in the Rye edition and a lady had taken a photo of a funnel from that storm that appeared at Pett (Fairlight) as the storm travelled NE'wards towards Lydd and Hythe. She says it appeared suddenly within 30 seconds of watching the storm approach and she managed to snap it. There is a reproduced photo of it in the paper, not an especially clear one, but there is evidence of a downward rotating funnel from the storm. The paper also features the pano pic from the man who captured the same storm in nearby Camber sands around the same time.

[Backtrack]

Rain has now turned very heavy. We are definatley pushing the 50mm barrier now!

Flooding here too in places.