5 replies to this topic

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 96E has become the sixth tropical cyclone of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season 2010, several hundred miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. 06E has an intensity of 30kts and consists of a well defined LLC, but bursting rather than persistant convection. Although the system is organised enough to be classified as a tropical depression, the environment has now deteriorated to such a degree that strengthening, if any, will be low. 25-30kts of shear has been analysed over the system, and this is preventing persistant convection from developing over the LLC. Shear is expected to eventually ease which may allow the depression to briefly become a tropical storm before cooler waters cause ultimate dissipation. This is if the current shear doesn't do the job first.

TD 06E is no threat to land. An elongated steering ridge over Mexico and ajacent waters should keep 06E on a typical west-northwesterly track away from land. Before dissipation, 06E is likely to turn more towards a direct westerly motion has the shallower system gets steered by the low level easterly flow.

Edited by Somerset Squall, 14 July 2010 - 21:12 .

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Thanks for the updates mate.

[Somerset Squall]

06E continues to struggle to maintain persistant convection due to strong shear. In around 36hrs time, shear will ease, and this is when 06E is likely to briefly become a tropical storm before cooler waters initiate weakening beyond 48hrs. It's worth noting that if convection manages to increase then an upgrade will occur before then as the LLC is well defined and the only thing holding the NHC back form making the upgrade is lack of convection.

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not been to great this one

Quote

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 16.7N 109.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 17.3N 110.2W 25 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 17.9N 112.0W 25 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 18.2N 113.9W 25 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 18.4N 115.8W 25 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 18.5N 119.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI

[Somerset Squall]

As I mentioned in my first post on this system, the future strengthening to a tropical storm was on the basis that shear didn't destroy the depression first. Well, it has just done that. 06E has been declared a remnant low because convection has not persisted over the centre, and the centre itself is hard to find on satellite imagery. The system seems to have several swirls in a broad area of light winds which is not a characterstic of a tropical depression. 06E is unlikely to regenerate as shear is expected to continue for another 24hrs and the system has jogged northwards meaning it will be traversing colder waters sooner than anticipated.

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Its now a remnant low this ones a gonna.