21 replies to this topic

[Somerset Squall]

At long last, after the dissipation of TS Omais in late March, a tropical depression has formed to the east of the Philippines. 03W has an intensity of 25kts, and consists of a persistant area of convection over a slowly developing LLC. 03W is in a favourable envionment for some intensification before landfall in Luzon. A subtropical steering ridge to the northeast will steer 03W westwards towards Luzon, with 03W gradually turning towards the northwest as the depression feels a weakeness in the ridge. 03W should strengthen into a moderate tropical storm before landfall, I'm plumping for an intensity of around 45-50kts. Land interaction will cause weakening before 03W moves into the northern half of the South China Sea, and increasing shear should cause dissipation of 03W off the coast of China.

[cookie]

At long last like you say.

[cookie]

Looking good

[Somerset Squall]

Now upgraded to Tropical Storm Conson, with intensity rising to 45kts. Appears to be rapidly intensifying, will do a full update later.

[cookie]

[Somerset Squall]

Conson is a small storm which has responded well to the favourable conditions. Shear is low, waters are around 30C and Conson is also benifitting from good poleward outflow. Due to Conson's size, intensification has been quick, and the storm is on the verge of becoming a typhoon, with intensity at 60kts. Deep convective banding is wrapping into the small CDO and an eye appears to be forming. Looks like Luzon will have a landfalling typhoon in a day or so, which isn't good news. Shear will weaken Conson in the South China Sea, but not enough to dissipate the storm before a second landfall occurs near Hong Kong in about 4 days time. Exact second landfall is difficult to pinpoint at this stage, but near Hong Kong looks likeliest at present.

[Somerset Squall]

Conson has become a cat 1 typhoon, the first of the season, with intensity rising to 65kts. Conson should make landfall tomorrow with an intensity between 70-80kts.

[cookie]

very interesting to see this has its eyes on hong kong.

[Somerset Squall]

Typhoon Conson strengthened a little further to 70kts but has now made landfall and has weakened to 60kts over Luzon. Conson is delivering flooding rains right across Luzon bar the far north. These rains are likely to continue at this intensity for at least another 24hrs, so some serious flooding is likely. Conson will then emerge into the South China Sea, approach a weakeness in the subtropical ridge to the north, and move northwestwards to make a second landfall west of Hong Kong.

[cookie]

its been fairly eaten by shear,

[Coast]

Quote

9 killed, 10 missing as typhoon lashes Philippines

MANILA, Philippines — The first typhoon to lash the Philippines this year flooded streets in the capital, toppled power lines and killed at least nine people Wednesday. Ten fishermen were missing after waves overturned their boats. More than half of the main northern island of Luzon, which includes Manila, was without electricity, and authorities said it would take two to three days to restore power. Several dozen flights were canceled, and schools and many government offices closed. Elsewhere in Asia, heavy rains wreaked havoc in China and Japan. The death toll from rain-triggered landslides rose to 37 in western China, and workers raced to drain overflowing reservoirs in the southeast. Flooding has killed 107 people in China so far this month, the official Xinhua News Agency said.

Storms also lashed southern and western Japan, leaving one dead and three missing. A woman drowned in a swollen river, and three people, including two women in their 70s, were missing, according to officials. Nearly 10,000 homes were evacuated. More rain was predicted into Thursday in both Japan and China. In the Philippines, Typhoon Conson came ashore on the east coast of Luzon on Tuesday night with winds of 75 miles per hour (120 kilometers per hour), said weather forecaster Bernie de Leon. It weakened to a tropical storm as it crossed the rice-growing island and then buffeted Manila on Luzon's west coast for two hours.The storm headed out to the South China Sea before dawn and is next expected to make landfall later this week in China, west of Macau. The nine deaths were spread over three provinces south of Manila.

In Batangas province, a 47-year-old woman was electrocuted by a power line that snapped, and a 12-year-old girl and her 4-year-old brother died after a large mango tree crashed into their home as they slept, said regional disaster operations officer Fred Bragas. In nearby Cavite province, a woman and her daughter were killed by a falling tree, Bragas said. Another child drowned after falling into a raging river, provincial spokesman Filomeno Maligaya told DZBB radio. At least three people were killed in Camarines Norte province, southeast of Manila, said military spokesman Maj. Harold Cabunoc. He gave no details. He added that authorities and civilian volunteers on Wednesday rescued nine of 19 fishermen who had disappeared when big waves overturned their boats off the island province of Catanduanes.

Up to 3,100 people were stranded in ports waiting for the weather to clear. In Manila, the storm brought down branches and trees and scattered trash. Winds ripped tarpaulin billboards along main roads and blew off the roofs of coastal shanties. The national disaster council reported knee-deep floods in some communities in the capital.
The Manila International Airport Authority said 63 flights, including four international ones, had been canceled and nine had been diverted to the central Philippine international airport since late Tuesday.

Classes were suspended in schools and most universities in Manila. Several government offices, including the Senate, closed because of the power outage. Thousands of commuters were stranded when the blackouts disrupted train services. Many hotels and shopping malls were relying on their own generators.Newly elected President Benigno Aquino III scolded the weather bureau for failing to predict that the storm would hit Manila.

"I hope this is the last time we are all brought to areas different from where we should be," Aquino told officials during a meeting of the National Disaster Coordinating Council, noting that government agencies were relying on the weather bureau for their preparations.

Weather bureau chief Prisco Nilo explained that it takes forecasters six hours to update weather bulletins. The weather bureau has complained of lack of funding and equipment.

www.google.com/hostednews

[cookie]

very sad news re the deaths

[Somerset Squall]

Conson has weakened to 50kts. Track forecasts have constantly shifted towards the west as the subtropical steering ridge to the north has held stronger than originally anticipated. This now puts Hainan Island in the firing line next for Conson. However, the storm should be a little weaker then due to gradually increasing shear.

[cookie]

still has plenty of convection

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, Conson is putting up an impressive fight against the shear. A massive convective blow up has occured as you say Cookie, but the whole mass is slanted towards the southwest indicative of high shear. The warm sea temperatures will certainly help to sustain Conson over the next day or so in the otherwise hostile enviornment.

Track has shifted west yet again. This almost reminds me of Fengshen in 2008, which was originally forecast to pass east of the Philippines- instead it travelled right through and made landfall much further to the west at Hong Kong. In the case of Conson, original track forecasts has the storm making the second landfall at Hong Kong, but in a similar vain to Fengshen, the ridge to the north has held strong, and the second landfall is expected to now occur on Hainan Island and miss Hong Kong completely. Conson should weaken over Hainan Island, but remain intact as it crosses the Gulf Of Tonkin and makes a third landfall in northern Vietnam. Conson has already caused death and destruction and although the storm is now weaker, the large mass of convection means it could cause more flooding down the road for Hainan and Vietnam.

[cookie]

is that the same ridge that prevents hong kong getting directly hit by a lot of typhoons?

[Coast]

www.youtube.com/typhoon_conson

[Somerset Squall]

cookie, on 14 July 2010 - 23:22 , said:

is that the same ridge that prevents hong kong getting directly hit by a lot of typhoons?

The ridge is quite persistant yes, and when strong, is responsable for driving storms into the South China Sea (away from Hong Kong).

Shear has unexpectedly eased over Conson, and the storm has become a typhoon with 70kts winds again. Conson may reach a new peak of 75-80kts before landfall in Hainan Island- a significant and not good change form the previous forecast.

[Somerset Squall]

Conson is now the strongest it's ever been, with intensity rising to 75kts. Shear is still moderate, which will cap any large intensity gains. The track has shifted a little more to the west, and Conson is now expected to clip the southwestern tip of Hainan Island before making a third landfall in northern Vietnam. Land interaction with Hainan Island should weaken the typhoon back to a tropical storm before final landfall. Conson is a fairly large system with a lot of rainfall attached so it doesn't look good for the areas mentioned above.

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