5 replies to this topic

[cookie]

96L has got better organized over night. and has become tropical depression 2

[Iceberg]

Have to admit I am not sure what this is even a TD, nor why is was really classed as one tbh, I doubt very much it would have been if it where not hear the US coastline.

Convection is very minimal and is not really currently over the centre (admitted by NHC in the last update).

It might just scrap TS winds but IMHO this will convective based winds and not winds due to the tropical nature of the low.

Anyhow it should hit land very very soon.

[kold weather]

Oh without a doubt Iceberg, though its presentation did look better before they upgraded it. Since then the convection has really weakened and whilst there is the first signs of strengthening again with regards to the convection on the southern side of the system I'm still not that impressed by it. Convergence really isn't all that impressive with this system and the fact its travelling over nearly exactly the same waters as Alex probably isn't helping matters for TD2 either.

Its still got time to become a TS if convection can burst close to land but I think its more likely to stay as a TD right now onto landfall. Either way the impacts will be the same regardless of what it does, with flooding both at the coast and inland being the main risk threat with this system.

[kold weather]

One thing that needs to be added is we have recon in there right now which is finding some pretty decent winds. Both flight level winds and surface wind speed estimates both support about 35kts so in thoery there would be an upgrade....however thus far recon has failed to find a west wind that would close the LLC off and therefore we have to assume the LLC is open and thus technically its not even a Depression.

Therefore its quite a difficult call for the NHC as to whether to upgrade to TS Bonnie or not. Its presentation certainly isn't all that impressive but winds do suggest it. There is a chance the center is just relocating and that might explain a lack of a LLC but thus far there is nothing to suggest this system even has a LLC...so the NHC could just as easily kil it off as upgrade it!

[Somerset Squall]

TD2 is now weakening inland. Primary concern is flooding as the depression is hitting a similar area to which Alex hit last week.

[Gray-Wolf]

There's a busy area ,fresh off Africa, about 35 degrees wesr and another very busy area about to fall into the ocean. I'll be watching these 2 areas over the next 5 days.....one of em' will decide to get BIG.