Convective Weather UK

[Stuart]

I hope coast

TORRO TORNADO WATCH 2011/001

A TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 1400GMT on Thursday 3rd February 2011

Valid from/until: 1400-0100GMT on Thursday 3rd/Friday 4th February 2011, for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Parts of (see map)

Eire

N Ireland

Scotland, including the Northern and Western Isles

THREATS

Tornadoes; hail to 10mm diameter; convective wind gusts to 90 knots; cloud-ground lightning; heavy rain

SYNOPSIS

Intense Atlantic depression will move north-east, to pass close to the Faeroe Island tonight. The associated cold front will sweep eastwards across the northern parts of Eire/N Ireland, and Scotland this afternoon/evening, and thence through the Northern Isles. Sferics have been detected west of Eire and Scotland, showing that there is strong lifting associated with this. Strong low-level wind shear is likely along the front, suggesting that gusts of 60-70mph, and perhaps 80mph will be possible. In addition, tornadoes are also possible.

Behind the front, heavy showers and a few thunderstorms are likely across Scotland, mainly in the west, and across the Western and Northern Isles. The intense pressure gradient is likely to allow gusts of 80-90mph even outside of convection, and up to 100mph possibly across the N Isles. A small risk of tornadoes too.

As the front moves southwards across Eire tonight it will become increasingly aligned with the deep layer wind field. Low-level convergence still looks strong along the front, and as minor waves run along the front, a risk exists of tornadoes and strong wind gusts. However, convection will likely be fairly shallow in nature.

http://www.torro.org...te/forecast.php

Edited February 3, 2011 by Stuart

[Jane Louise]

Hi all, there are huge towering clouds here Just like the convection in the Summer

It's most probably rain though. Keeping my eye on this.

Edited February 12, 2011 by Jane Louise

[Costa Del Fal]

First decent convection day of the year here. As youd rather expect the conditions for thunder etc isnt there however some small rain showers have developed especially in the NW Midlands.

[Jane Louise]

It's never to early for a storm.:)The unexpected ones are always the best. Nothng happened here storm wise just a couple of showers but was nice to see some convection.

[Stuart]

did i head risk of thunder on mondy on news 24 weather

[Jane Louise]

did i head risk of thunder on mondy on news 24 weather

I think you may be in luck Stu looking at some of the charts Good luck hope you get something.

[Stuart]

I think you may be in luck Stu looking at some of the charts Good luck hope you get something.

yes good luck but i no at home

[tomp456]

if the west sussex area doesnt see some activity mon/tues i wont be held responsible for my actions!

PLEASE mother nature, one storm just ONE.

[Jane Louise]

Well, someone's going to get lucky tommorow according to Estofex.

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sun 13 Feb 2011 06:00 to Mon 14 Feb 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sat 12 Feb 2011 16:47

Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Some showers and thunderstorms can be expected over the East Atlantic and the western parts of the British Isles in the wake of a cold front. A few hundred J/kg CAPE are created by steepening lapse rates near the upper cold core of the Atlantic trough. 0-3 km shear is considerably weak and locally 15 - 20 m/s shear from 0-6 km should be too low for organized severe convection.

http://www.estofex.org/

yes good luck but i no at home

Typical :nonono:who knows! the storm may follow you lol.

if the west sussex area doesnt see some activity mon/tues i wont be held responsible for my actions!

PLEASE mother nature, one storm just ONE.

I know the feeling Summer's the best time though , Good luck anyway.

[Stormyking]

Hmmm was good to see some good convection about, first time in a long time to see big popcorn like cumulus clouds grow over land, was great to see

[Coast]

Well, someone's going to get lucky tommorow according to Estofex.

But not me!!

I think Ireland will get anything that's about, possibly Cornwall at the end of the afternoon, but it's a long shot.

Hmmm was good to see some good convection about, first time in a long time to see big popcorn like cumulus clouds grow over land, was great to see

You must have been looking at the same formations as I was, mid afternoon? Lovely lot of mashed potato over East Sussex and Kent! :lol:

if the west sussex area doesnt see some activity mon/tues i wont be held responsible for my actions!

PLEASE mother nature, one storm just ONE.

There's a whole season yet to go Tom!! :winky: I suspect it may be a little more interesting this week, possibly mid to late?

[Nick F]

Upper trough and associated cold air (at 500mb) moving east tomorrow looks to increase instability across western areas - with some sharp showers with hail and perhaps the odd rumble of thunder across SW England, Wales and NW England in particular, perhaps even some snow over the hills in the north and west.

GFS also hinting at increasing instability across SW and S'ern areas on Tuesday, following on behind the occluded front rain band lifting N and NE on Tuesday. Increasingly cold air is suggested aloft from the SW at 500mb on Tuesday which looks to develop post frontal trough and convection across SW England, S Wales, S Ireland and central-S England. Some fairly decent CAPE developing across these areas on 06z GFS - so perhaps a better chance of a storm than tomorrow, though subject to change this far out:

Overall vertical wind shear doiesn't look too impressive, though LL shear could be strong enough for funnels or even a weak tornado near coasts, where local topography enhances wind shear, if updrafts are bouyant enough.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Hmmm was good to see some good convection about, first time in a long time to see big popcorn like cumulus clouds grow over land, was great to see

Agreed- it was somewhat unexpected as I always thought the peak day was going to be Monday (and perhaps Tuesday for some, as Nick F's post indicates).

Looks like some of those showers will move east tomorrow as well, though they may not reach eastern coastal areas until after dark, thus limiting overall convective potential in those areas.

[Summer of 95]

I was surprised to run into a hail shower yesterday about 8 miles south of here, it came from clouds that bad "bubbled up" during the day in true April-shower fashion.

[mesocyclone]

Hi all,

Seems like years since i had a good thunderstorm around my way. I used to love the May time storms i witnessed in the late 90's.

I've seen more thunder from snow in the last few years than a traditional storm.

I hope this year is different, Although more thunder snow would be welcomed to before it's too late!

[Coast]

Happy Valentines Day stormy lovers!!

ESTOFEX have a gift especially for you:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Mon 14 Feb 2011 06:00 to Tue 15 Feb 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Mon 14 Feb 2011 06:56

Forecaster: DAHL

No threat levels issued.

... SYNOPSIS ...

A high-over low upper flow pattern is present over the southern parts of Europe, with a ridge over central Europe and an upper low over the central Mediterranean. A deep Atlantic upper trough is slowly pushing east but will effectively be blocked by the central-European ridge.

The southern branch of the upper frontal zone will stretch across the S/E Mediterranean, where DCVA should instigate weak cyclogenesis on Monday.

At the surface, a deep and extensive SFC low is covering much of the E Atlantic and cold high pressure persists over N Europe and Russia.

... DISCUSSION ...

... British Isles ...

Scattered polar-air showers should advect into the British Isles. Very sporadic lightning may accompany the stronger cells, especially close to the west coast. Activity may extend as far south as northern France.

Although I suspect the chances increase from tomorrow onwards.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The latest GFS runs show showers breaking out pretty much anywhere- I don't expect any thunderstorms in Norwich, but there might be some good skyscapes this afternoon!

Significant convective potential does increase over the next two or three days, but from what I can see, only over south-west England, with the weather turning more stable elsewhere.

[BoilingisBetter]

Hello,

I love a good storm, and I am in Manchester at the ready with my camera (time now 10:40am) waiting for the storms to arrive, with the netweather radar up on the PC. Think how wonderful it will be to get my first thunder this early in the year.

[Coast]

Hello,

Morning BiB!

I love a good storm, and I am in Manchester at the ready with my camera (time now 10:40am) waiting for the storms to arrive, with the netweather radar up on the PC. Think how wonderful it will be to get my first thunder this early in the year.

Well of course many of us do, but you might be waiting a while yet! Fingers crossed for the real part of the season to get under way in the next few months.

[TheToastPeople]

Its nice to see the cape for my area today at the same level as it was in summer to bad i didnt see a thing all summer!

[A.J]

After months of people droning on about DAM, 850's and dewpoints etc It's a real pleasure to see the phrases "CAPE" & "L.I" being used on the forum, a sign a convective activity!

and, as if on cue, I've just had my first convective shower of the year, and a nice bit of hail it was!......Plenty of action stirring through wales & into the Midlands now, so who knows, maybe the first rumbles of 2011 are in the making ?

[toggerob]

Some great cloudscapes here today, pretty much on the ball with the RASPtable CAPE prediction (11am-4pm max CAPE locally.) Already counting 7 Anvils on the southwest horizon which are the CBs over central Wales gradually encroaching, we had a spectacular display of mammatus not only a hour ago aswell from a brief local shower that passed.

Still another 2 hours of maximum CAPE potential left.

[gottolovethisweather]

Looks like it should be fun for a few in the midlands and I'm just a wee bit too south for the action although you never know.

Not really expecting much action in terms of Thunder over the next couple of days as my average first Thunder heard date is the 2nd March.

Nice to have something to talk about before the drier end to February which I feel looks most proabable at this stage, at least IMBY.

Stormy Regards

gottolovethisweather

[Stormyking]

Quite a bit of Convective activity about here at the moment, not bad for February!

Quite a few showers about on the radar by the look of it, load in N France wander if they can hold strength and come up to us

Potent shower activity too south Devon too by the look of as well

Edited February 14, 2011 by Stormyking

[Stormyking]

Ahaaa talking about showery looking clouds, we have our first shower of the day, falling moderately