159 replies to this topic

[Paranoid]

Alex now a Category 2, though the pressure and satellite presentation look like it should be more like a Category 4. Bizarre system. That said, a similar thing happened with Hurricane Ike in 2008; that was also a Category 2 but had a pressure of about 940mbar because it was so large, although it didn't have anywhere near as impressive satellie presenantion as Alex does.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 302257
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...ALEX NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO VERY SOON...

SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 97.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR FROM
BROWNSVILLE NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN A FEW
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COASTLINE.

ALEX IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM PRIMARILY
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED STATION
IN MATAMOROS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...78 KM/HR AND AN
UNOFFICIAL WEATHER STATION ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND REPORTED A WIND
GUST OF 60 MPH...97 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWS NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX AFFECTING THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS.

WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO SHORTLY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE WATER COULD
PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH
GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE STORM TIDE MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

Edited by Paranoid, 30 June 2010 - 23:02 .

[cookie]

[Katherine]

That looks very chuffing impressive.

[kold weather]

Yep offically a 85kts category-2...

An utterly amazing hurricane this one, the last 6hrs has seen the presnetation of Alex improve in a huge way with a small and clear eye developing over that time. Earlier inner structual problems have gone as the inner eyewall collapsed around 6-8pm BST and pressure briefly shot up. Since then we've seen a very fast turn around of the system and the presentation is exceptional now.

Dvorak now has a raw number of 6.0 roughly which is suggestive of a borderline 3/4 hurricane and I'd concur as it does look like a category-4 at the moment instead of a 2. What has happened is the earlier double wind Maxima profile has caused the storm to spread its hurricane winds wel out from the center. To get hurricane force winds out 70-90 miles from the center in a minimal category-2 is impressive, quite a few fully matured major hurricane don't have a wind radius of even half that size...

One other final factoid, Alex is now the 2nd strongest hurricane *ever* in June in terms of pressure and is just behind Audrey which had a central pressure of 946mbs and with a current pressure of 949-950mbs, its possible this one still could make the record or tie with it....and its the first hurricane for 15 years...1995 FWIW ended up being hyperactive.

Landfall should be in the next 90 mins, winds should be gusting towards 90-100mph near the coasts, hopefully people have prepared for it...it is slowing down but pretty much landfall is about to occur with this one. Immense Hurricane this one, if it weren't so spread out, it'd no doubt be a major hurricane.

Finally, recon taking probably one last pass of Alex and is finding winds that now certainly justify 85kts with a wind speed of 106kts in the NE eyewall...will find out the pressure in the next few minutes...can it beat the record?!

Edited by kold weather, 30 June 2010 - 23:49 .

[cookie]

I might just stay up for landfall

[kold weather]

That presentation is just unreal for a category-2 hurricane, may just be one of the most stunning category-2 hurricanes I've ever seen!

Amazing system, look at the great connection to the upper level low over NE states/E.Canada!

If this system had a little longer to develop I'd imagine we would probably have a 105-115kts hurricane, we are just lucky the double wind Maxima really expanded the wind Radii earlier this eveing otherwise we'd have a rapidly bombing major right now heading for landfall, have no doubts about that all, as it is its still a low end hurricane 2 which is nothing to be sniffed at!

[cookie]

kold weather, on 30 June 2010 - 23:58 , said:

That presentation is just unreal for a category-2 hurricane, may just be one of the most stunning category-2 hurricanes I've ever seen!

Amazing system, look at the great connection to the upper level low over NE states/E.Canada!

If this system had a little longer to develop I'd imagine we would probably have a 105-115kts hurricane, we are just lucky the double wind Maxima really expanded the wind Radii earlier this eveing otherwise we'd have a rapidly bombing major right now heading for landfall, have no doubts about that all, as it is its still a low end hurricane 2 which is nothing to be sniffed at!

is that a sign of things to come u feel?

[Katherine]

kold weather, on 30 June 2010 - 23:58 , said:

That presentation is just unreal for a category-2 hurricane, may just be one of the most stunning category-2 hurricanes I've ever seen!

I'm agog!

[Iceberg]

Well it finally made landfall earlier as a 90Kt 947mb storm, CAT 2, but only shy of a CAT 3 Major status.
Very much agree with the other comments another 24 hrs and this might well have made CAT 4.

Most of all though I am impressed with ECM, which yet again forcast this magnitude of hurricane nearly 9 days out when it was nothing more than a few clouds, ECM was wrong about the landing place, but still deserves alot of credit.

Would have been a nice sight to stand in the eye as the sun was setting on a beach in Mexico.......

Attached Thumbnails

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[CatchMyDrift]

Iceberg, on 01 July 2010 - 05:57 , said:

Most of all though I am impressed with ECM, which yet again forcast this magnitude of hurricane nearly 9 days out when it was nothing more than a few clouds, ECM was wrong about the landing place, but still deserves alot of credit.

Is Alex forecast to disintegrate over land or will the storm end up back over the ocean at some point?

Edit: If I wasn't so lazy in the first place I would have found this http://www.nhc.noaa....-daynl#contents

Edited by CatchMyDrift, 01 July 2010 - 07:02 .

[cookie]

from weather underground

Quote

Alex's bizarre behavior
Alex had several rather remarkable features I've never seen in a hurricane. Firstly, it underwent an eyewall replacement cycle as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Usually, we don't see the inner eyewall collapse and an eyewall replacement cycle occur until a hurricane reaches Category 3 strength. I've seen it happen on occasion to a Category 2 storm, but never a Category 1. Secondly, after Alex's inner 9-mile diameter eyewall collapsed at 10am EDT yesterday morning, an outer spiral band began to become the new eyewall. Winds in this outer spiral band/new eywall increased as the day progressed, as typically happens in an eyewall replacement cycle. However, part way through that process, Alex suddenly reversed course, and was able to build a small inner eyewall with a 12-mile diameter that was completed by landfall. I've never seen a hurricane change its mind in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle and build an inner eyewall so fast. Finally, Alex had an unusually weak winds, considering how low the pressure was. The pressure was more typical of a hurricane one Saffir-Simpson category stronger than what the surface winds suggested.

[cookie]

Goodbye Alex

[kold weather]

Cookie, Jeff Masters is right, it really did complete the EWRC very rapidly, the whole inner core ramped up exceptionally fast compared to the mess it was in with the double wind Maxima (two peaks in the wind ,normally there'd be one, the eyewall...therefore 2 peaks suggests 2 eyewalls.)

2nd strongest June hurricane in terms of pressure, second only to Audrey, which got down 1mb lower to 946mbs!

[cookie]

kold weather, on 02 July 2010 - 11:30 , said:

Cookie, Jeff Masters is right, it really did complete the EWRC very rapidly, the whole inner core ramped up exceptionally fast compared to the mess it was in with the double wind Maxima (two peaks in the wind ,normally there'd be one, the eyewall...therefore 2 peaks suggests 2 eyewalls.)

2nd strongest June hurricane in terms of pressure, second only to Audrey, which got down 1mb lower to 946mbs!

I was unsure at Jeff, I was unsure at Alex and what he did.

[cookie]

very sad and disturbing images here

http://fotos.elunive...html?idgal=8552

[CatchMyDrift]

cookie, on 03 July 2010 - 22:33 , said:

very sad and disturbing images here

http://fotos.elunive...html?idgal=8552

The power of the water to rip those roads apart and move all that debris is mind blowing. A chilling reminder of the power of nature.

[Gray-Wolf]

We love seeing the unbridled power of nature but we hate it's impacts on man and nature.

With such a big season forecast we must know (deep down inside) that folk will suffer this season be it from being forced into tent towns, post earthquake, or from oil out of Deep horizon.

We love the raw energy of a tornado or a 'cane but only as spectators (please!!!)

[cookie]

Gray-Wolf, on 03 July 2010 - 23:35 , said:

We love seeing the unbridled power of nature but we hate it's impacts on man and nature.

With such a big season forecast we must know (deep down inside) that folk will suffer this season be it from being forced into tent towns, post earthquake, or from oil out of Deep horizon.

We love the raw energy of a tornado or a 'cane but only as spectators (please!!!)

that's why Hurricane Celia was perfect far enough away from land to cause no problems at all and one of the most visually stunning hurricanes.

[Gray-Wolf]

cookie, on 03 July 2010 - 23:41 , said:

that's why Hurricane Celia was perfect far enough away from land to cause no problems at all and one of the most visually stunning hurricanes.

Agreed cookie!

Sadly the 'drama' of the U.S. news crews, when a 'Cane is hitting mainland U.S,. is a real draw for me (well worth staying up for!) so we (I hope 'WE'?) are a bit 'rubberneckie' about it all too!!

We can't stop it occuring (though we may influence it's power???) so we watch with awe.

[cookie]

to right we can't do anything about it. I wouldnt recommend trying either.