9 replies to this topic

[Somerset Squall]

The disturbance located to the west of TD 02E has developed further and become a 35kt tropical storm named Blas. Blas looks a little lopsided at the moment with most of the convection on the western half of the LLC, but banding is also quite well developed in this quadrant. However, the long term outlook is not great for Blas as it moves typically west-northwestwards. This track will bring Blas over cooler waters tomorrow and elevated easterly shear which should prevent further significant intensification and eventually cause dissipation over open water, in around 3 days time.

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[Somerset Squall]

Blas has stregthened a little to 40kts. Banding is quite impressive on the western side of the LLC, and convection has become a little more centralised. Blas could strengthen a little further before shear increases which will penetrate Blas' core with dry and stable air located north of the storm.

[cookie]

Thanks for the updates mate

[Somerset Squall]

Blas has remained at a fairly steady intensity of 40kts today. Moderate northeasterly shear has impinged on Blas, keeping the LLC on the northeastern edge of the persistant convection. As a result, Blas has not been able to strengthen any further.

Blas is set to head westwards over cooler waters through the next few days. Shear could well ease, but stable air and the reduced water temps should ultimately finish Blas off.

[Somerset Squall]

Shear has eased over Blas today, and a more southerly track has kept the storm away from the stable airmass to the north. Accordingly the storm has strengthened to 55kts. Convection fully covers the centre and banding is impressive. Blas has another 24hrs before induction of dry/stable air and passage over cooler waters occurs. NHC give Blas a 30% chance of becoming a hurricane- I actually think Blas has a really good shot at this given the impressive satellite signature at present. Ultimately, the forecast is the same beyond 24hrs, with the exception Blas will take longer to wind down as it has become stronger than anticipated.

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Edited by Somerset Squall, 19 June 2010 - 17:57 .

[summer blizzard]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 202032
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010

VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH BLAS.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ONLY A FEW CELLS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE CIRCULATION. LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 1.5 FROM TAFB
AND SAB SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ON THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH SOME DEEP CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP
WITH THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM TONIGHT...OVERALL THE CIRCULATION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A
MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS BLAS BECOMING A
REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT COULD CERTAINLY OCCUR
SOONER THAN THAT.

THE FORWARD MOTION IS NEAR 285/11. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES ARE MADE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST OR SYNOPTIC REASONING. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR REMNANT LOW ON
A MAINLY WESTWARD OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF WESTWARD COURSE UNTIL THE
CYCLONE LOSES ITS IDENTITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 17.9N 114.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 18.1N 116.4W 25 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 18.2N 118.4W 25 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 18.1N 120.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 22/1800Z 17.9N 122.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 23/1800Z 17.5N 127.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Weakening quickly now.

http://www.ssd.noaa....flt/t6/wv-l.jpg

Looks almost like it has two centres.

http://www.ssd.noaa....lt/t6/vis-l.jpg

Edited by summer blizzard, 20 June 2010 - 21:28 .

[Somerset Squall]

As expected, Blas has entered a more hostile environment of dry air and cooler sea surface temperatures. As a result, Blas weakened to a tropical depression as the NHC discussion posted by SB states above. However, recently a large convective flare up has occured over the compact LLC, and satellite intensity estimates have risen back up to 35kts, so Blas may become a tropical storm again. It appears Blas isn't going without a fight, but ultimately the combination of stable air and cooler waters will win out and dissipate the cyclone.

[Somerset Squall]

Blas is on death's door. The convective flare up from the early hours has all but dissipated again. Once a tropical cyclone cannot maintain persistant convection, it gets declared a remnant low- which is what will happen to Blas soon unless he manages to fire any convection through the next few hours.

[Somerset Squall]

Convection has not returned over Blas' LLC this evening, thus it has been declared a remnant low. The low will continue to drift westwards until complete dissipation in a day or so.

[cookie]

Thanks for the updates mate

Back to my addiction after the break, I Will admit at times I did miss it..