1611 replies to this topic

[oldsnowywizard]

[quote name='Gray-Wolf' timestamp='1285879719' post='1865756']
I would suggest that the folks who relied so heavily on the Danish temps for 80n and above should re-ignite there interest in that site and explain what they see presently (and emerging as a trend over the last 7 years)?

ok i ill bite... it shows that temps are below 265k or -8.15degrees and dropping after going up to 266k or -7.15degrees recently or 1/1.5 degrees higher than the average...?
[url="http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2010.png"]My link[/url]

ijis back up to 2005 figures all within 2 weeks. will it continue? who knows. apples with apples.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

mycroft, on 30 September 2010 - 23:02 , said:

is there not a theory that says hot/warm water cools faster or the same as cold/cool water??

The problem there is Latent Heat. That's the amount of heat given off as the water changes state from liquid to solid. And it's quite a lot of energy 334 kJ/kg. And there are a lot of kg's of water that need to give up it's heat

[Gray-Wolf]

NorthNorfolkWeather, on 01 October 2010 - 09:01 , said:

The problem there is Latent Heat. That's the amount of heat given off as the water changes state from liquid to solid. And it's quite a lot of energy 334 kJ/kg. And there are a lot of kg's of water that need to give up it's heat

Did we , once upon a time, used to have cold dense air sat on top of the ice pack in autumn as the polar night drew in helping to form a cold pool H.P.? What happens when that air sits on open water that is busy shedding heat into the atmosphere?

Do we find what we have been measuring these last 7 years? Do we see an atmospheric profile that is very altered from the 'old Arctic'?, do we see different synoptics driven by this process.

Why do folk believe that this year (with the expanse of open waters we saw this year?) will prove different to the past years? Why do they feel that the ocean will shed it's heat at an accelerated rate (or have the surface instant frozen) at odds with the basic physical laws?

[Gray-Wolf]

mycroft, on 01 October 2010 - 10:44 , said:

but that heat will be shed,and lost in to a cold dark atmosphere in winter,what you think will be the outcome in terms of weather synoptics,
i think of as a hot bath full of hot water in a cold room, result lots of steam/water vapour
outcome on a global scale???????ideas anyone

I seem to remember that NSIDC had a section on the Arctic Amplification and it's impacts on global climate circulation? If you recall Mark Serezze linked us to this paper;

 fulltext.pdf   1021.28K   18 downloads

back in May? Probably an excellant time to bring it out again and compare it with what we are witnessing this autumn?

EDIT: You should have a read........No Pressure!.......

Edited by Gray-Wolf, 01 October 2010 - 10:54 .

[Yorkshiresnows]

Hi Folks,

For me by far the most accurate fotecast of the Arctic ice situation this year has been by Joe B over on Accuweather.

He correctly predicted that the healthy ice of the early Spring would be replaced by rapid melt ........ but not matching 2007 and also that there would be a healthy recovery.

He is also predicting a late spring thaw and early autumn re-freeze next year tied into the La Nina and -PDO ....... all predicted well in advance.

You can still access some of the early video blogs he issued back in the winter.

No death spiral and doom laden posts from that quarter.

Guess we will have to see where we go from here .... but looking quite good at the moment.

Y.S

[Devonian]

Yorkshiresnows, on 01 October 2010 - 11:15 , said:

Hi Folks,

For me by far the most accurate fotecast of the Arctic ice situation this year has been by Joe B over on Accuweather.

...

Y.S

What minimum figure did he predict?

Did he get closer than Tamino?

[Gray-Wolf]

Devonian, on 01 October 2010 - 12:59 , said:

What minimum figure did he predict?

Did he get closer than Tamino?

Ha,ha,ha,ha!!

W.U.W.T.= We Use Wishful Thinking............

Yorkshiresnows, on 01 October 2010 - 11:15 , said:

Hi Folks,

For me by far the most accurate fotecast of the Arctic ice situation this year has been by Joe B over on Accuweather.

He correctly predicted that the healthy ice of the early Spring would be replaced by rapid melt ........ but not matching 2007 and also that there would be a healthy recovery.


Y.S

Nuff said!

Edited by Gray-Wolf, 01 October 2010 - 13:21 .

[badboy657]

no he was very accurate with his prediction and also admits when hes wrong,
also he does not push his opions on other people.

its like a school playground in here right now as normal.

at this moment in time the arctic refreeze is doing very well....
so really as were entering winter,
it would be nice to talk about what the ice extent will reach during the winter up until spring.

instead of the doom and gloom campain that some posters are on.

[pottyprof]

As the freeze up is taking off up norf, we thought it would be a good thing to start a new thread.

Will be closing this one shortly.

[Gray-Wolf]

pottyprof, on 01 October 2010 - 13:40 , said:

As the freeze up is taking off up norf, we thought it would be a good thing to start a new thread.

Will be closing this one shortly.

Hussar! (can we have a nice Antarctic one for the melt season there too?)