pottyprof, on 01 February 2012 - 21:36 , said:
Yep.. You said it...... Thing is though, even the main boffins have admitted that this pause wasn't expected and even they are predicting some cooling... Are you saying that they are wrong? Where's the proof? Surely we must believe them as they aren't wrong. At all. End of..... You denier you.
I'm still running with the predictions I read in the mid noughties (esp. from MetO?) which conceded that natural variability would lead to a slow down in temp rises but that , by 2015, temps would ,once again, speed up there warming trend to a rate beyond the 80's rate of warming.
I can see that the PDO-ve has peaked and so would expect this to now drop away as an influence (the background warming will 'swamp' the signal so we can expect a shorter phase of -ve but a longer phase of 'null' plots) and we are now expecting a La Nina. Though moderate (and in a PDO-ve phase which tends to moderate the Nino's) the last Nino was only trumped .in it's effects on global temps. by the 98' Super Nino so it seems logical that ,during the waning of PDO-ve, the next one will break the global temps of 98'.
Heightened global temps is not what we need with the Siberian shelf deposits becomeing more unstable and land based permafrost melt producing ever more 'lakes' producing methane.
This years Sea Ice melt seasson is nearly upon us so we'll have our 'early season fun there,by which time the ENSO forecasts will show the next Nino and we'll have more of an idea as to what summer will bring us all this year.