33 replies to this topic

[StOrM18]

In these moments, there are very heavy rain hit the island of Masirah in the east of Oman
Also have been rescued 16 passengers of an Egyptian ship that nearly sank in the Arabian Sea. They are now safe in Oman.

The situation is very serious in these moments east of Oman. I hope to pass these moments in the best

Edited by StOrM18, 03 June 2010 - 08:43 .

[kold weather]

Phet has inproved its structure again overnight and has held on a little better then I was expecting. Eyewall is still somewhat open on the northern side so I'd guess strength right now is probably between 105-110kts. Slow weakening should continue as the system draws nearer to Oman.

Now big uncertainties about the track, the models are shifting back eastwards and now only brush Oman before the system recurves to the NE towards India. How much weakening occurs will depend on exactly where and if it makes landfall in Oman.

[StOrM18]

At this time, I think that cyclone is strengthening itself when it returned to the east slightly this afternoon. This resulted in a decline in the delay of the approaching cyclone to the Oman. After that, the cyclone returned again to the movement to the northwest and fought back helped to strengthen the itself, as now, the storm intensified the withdrawal of thunderstorms around itself. Thereafter, the rotate around itself.
I really take this cyclone, cyclone ambiguous, where no one knows the path and we see each update to change the track.

Of knowing that for 5 days and dry air is turned off for northern Oman, where there is humid air.




To monitor places of lightning in this moment.

Edited by StOrM18, 03 June 2010 - 17:15 .

[cookie]

stunning image of this system

[kold weather]

That is an amazing image Cookie!

Anyway system looks like its just about going to stay offland. The whole balance of the system doesn't look all that bad. I'd estimate the JWTC call of about 105kts right now is about right, though I'd go a little lower between 95-100kts because of an open northern eyewall. I have to admit my call of a landfall of 100-105kts is looking a good one

The latest JWTC forecast drives the system inland into Oman after previously recurving the system offshore. Its been a touch forecast on that front I have to admit with the upper trough not coming along quite quick enough to recurve the system early enough to prevent a landfall of Phet.
I've certainly been fooled a few times already by this system, still its a good warm-up for the Atlantic basin for me!

Edited by kold weather, 03 June 2010 - 21:29 .

[Somerset Squall]

Yup, stunning image Cookie- cyclones of this intensity aren't all that common in the Arabian Sea, and particularly not so close to Oman and desert regions! Looks like Phet could well be crossing the coast to head inland now. JTWC seem quite keen on the idea of a moist inflow channel from the Arabian Sea halting weakening as Phet tracks over Oman and has the cyclone landfalling at 55kt intensity near Karachi, Pakistan beyond the 72hr time period. This is different to previous forecasts from this agency which suggested rapid weakening over Oman and landfall near Karachi at depression strength. This idea of the moist inflow channel sustaining Phet could well pan out- you just need to look at how well Phet is coping with the abundant dry air over the landmass of Oman to see it's getting help from somewhere.

[cookie]

[StOrM18]

night yestarday, cyclone Phet hit the coast of eastern Oman. Causing heavy rains and flooding of the valleys. Still persistent torrential rain there, so the situation is tragic in that region.
Here in the north of Oman will be the situation may be disturbing in the hours next, we are exposed currently rain moderately, and sometimes heavier

I think in the coming hours will see the capital Muscat, where heavy rain the vellays floods the path of the center is still moving towards the north-west.

Edited by StOrM18, 04 June 2010 - 05:24 .

[StOrM18]

Rainfall on the towns east of Amman.
City of Sur, 331 ml
Masirah Island 117 ml

[Somerset Squall]

Some pretty high totals there StOrM18!

Phet has finally turned towards the northeast and is emerging over water. Convection has decreased somewhat today due to the passage over land, but the inner core remains strong, and intensity has only fallen to 65kts, meaning Phet is still a cat 1. Shear is increasing however, and this should weaken Phet a little more before landfall near Karachi.

[cookie]

thanks for the updates.

[cookie]

weakening fast now

[StOrM18]

After cyclone Phet, has so far caused the death of 8 persons and there are 4 missing. There are also areas that were not able to defend points of access to those areas and uninterrupted communications in those areas. Particular areas of the east coast of Oman

Edited by StOrM18, 05 June 2010 - 10:51 .

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Final Track