23 replies to this topic

[cooling climate]

Yorkshiresnows, on 12 May 2010 - 12:02 , said:

These must be very exciting times for you GW.

Can't wait for the next umpteenth posts regarding impending doom, horror and thorough melting.

I'll go with Mr laminate floori. Lots of melt this summer, probably not as bad as 2007, with a big bounce back thereafter starting this winter.

Y.S

I doubt very much we will see anywhere near the melt that occurred during the summer of 2007
although a -AO during the summer would lead to increased melting than would otherwise happen.
Of course Jackanory same old story will disagree with this. Only pulling your leg GW your are of
course perfectly intitled to your opinions, and I love reading them over and over and over and over etc, etc

Edited by cooling climate, 12 May 2010 - 16:56 .

[Gray-Wolf]

cooling climate, on 12 May 2010 - 16:54 , said:

and I love reading them over and over and over and over etc, etc

So sad that there is an end in sight and I'll have nothing to post about soon enough!

[Gray-Wolf]

Now that the 'external ice' is melting (Bering,Okhotsk,Barents) I've been looking inside the Arctic Basin to see how this is looking.

I think we'll see Beaufort, Chukchi and Arctic Basin proper start to drop off soon. If you look at Beaufort you'll see it holds a big potential for rapid melt as it is already well fragmented with areas of 'slush' now more visible. The Arctic Basin adjacent to Barents is also in a poor state.

As noted earlier the 'thin' nature of the pack this year will mean a lot more ice melts out 'in situ' which could mean a continued steep decline well into August.

The Buoy data shows a strong drift from the pole towards Fram so the early melt out of the ice in Fram seems to be leaving a 'void' that this section of the basin seems keen to fill. If our current 'northerly' regime keeps re-loading all summer this will take all of this ice into Barents and out through Fram.

The Buoys also shows a continued drift of the older ice from Beaufort across the front of Bering and if the pattern of weather that brought us the 'extra ice' over Feb/March continues then we may see this ice exit via Bering through July/Aug.

[Gray-Wolf]

Now where are all the long range forecasters when you need them? With 12 weeks of melt to go I'd have thought that one or two would combine Mr Serreze's 'wind and cloud' caution into solid ice extent figures by now!!!

All I have is an ENSO neutral and a low energy sun (lot's of Hurricane's to mash around the atlantic heat and a propensity towards H.P. in our neck of the woods)

I'm still not happy with what I see.With the current 'Bering to Fram' motion of all the buoys in the Basin you have to have a worry (don't you?) about all the open water the ice is pushing into. In the same way that Bering acted as an 'ice factory' over winters end surely sun kissed ocean with ice pushed into it is a bad formula for ice retention?

We need an active Arctic Gyre to keep all the ice central (and colder) for as long as poss. with lots of cloud/fog across it.