14 replies to this topic

[Somerset Squall]

TC 19P has formed from invest 97P, and is located approximately 340 miles northwest of Pago Pago according to the JTWC. Initial intensity is 35kts. 19P has a tight circulation with strong convective banding wrapping into the northern quadrant. Convection is a little weak on the southern side due to the presence of a trough to the south-southwest. This trough is expected to pull away allowing 19P to develop more symmetrically. With good outflow, warm sea temperatures, low shear and an already well defined LLC, 19P could intensify quite quickly and JTWC are keen on making this an 100kt+ system.

19P is currently moving westwards along the northern periphery of a ridge to the south-southeast. A turn towards the south is forecast by the models to occur beyond 36hrs as the trough I mentioned above breaks down the ridge. This will bring 19P very close to Fiji, in fact, landfall is looking likely at present. As 19P is expected to be intense at this point, Fiji need to start preparing immediately. The track is supported well by the models, and confidence is fairly high for tracking.

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[Somerset Squall]

19P has been upgraded to Tropical Cyclone Tomas, and the cyclone appears to be strengthening quickly, as intensity has risen to 55kts. Excellent banding features are fully wrapping into the developing central dense overcast feature. Once this fully develops an eye could quickly emerge, don't be surprised to see Tomas rapidly intensify over the next day or so as the upper level environment is good and waters are in excess of 30C. A bend of track southwards towards Fiji is still forecast.

Edited by Somerset Squall, 12 March 2010 - 18:44 .

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[Somerset Squall]

Tomas has strengthened further over the last 12hrs, and is now a 65kt cat 1 on the SS scale. Tomas has moved generally westwards though a southward turn is expected to begin soon. With further quick intensification expected, this puts Fiji in danger from Tomas, as he is expected to be a cat 4 on the SS scale at landfall. With the eye already becoming better defined, this confirms that Tomas is a rapidly maturing system.

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[cookie]

stunning imgage of these 2 cyclone's

[Somerset Squall]

Beautiful image there Cookie, the South Pacific season has certainly made up for the very quiet South Indian one!

Tomas has strengthened further overnight and intensity has reached 85kts, making him a cat 2 on the SS scale. The eye is still a little rugged, but banding is impressive and the storm's size, as shown in Cookie's image above, is very large. I'd be very worried if I was in Fiji right now, as destructive winds and flooding rains are sure to arrive soon as Tomas continues to strengthen then makes landfall on the island chain. JTWC going for a peak of 110kts which seems reasonable given the favourable conditions but Tomas' large size.

Tomas is moving southwestwards along the northwestern periphery of a weakening subtropical ridge to the southeast. As this ridge continues to be eroded by an advancing trough, Tomas will swing southward then southeastward as the cyclone gets caught up in mid-lattitude westerlies. Extratropical transition should begin in around 72hrs, after which, Tomas is likely to become a powerful extratropical storm well to the northeast of New Zealand.

[Somerset Squall]

The eye if Tomas has become a lot better defined through this afternoon, and the cyclone has intensified accordingly. Intensity has increased to 100kts. The satellite image below shows the marked improvement in Tomas' structure and it's proximity to the island chain of Fiji. Conditions are rapidly deteriorating here, and the severe weather conditions are likely to last a good 48hrs as Tomas is a large storm. The worst conditions will arrive this time tomorrow on the southward track, where Tomas' intensity is forecast to be high end cat 3 or even low end cat 4 on the SS scale. This type of storm is likely to cause a lot of damage and also significant storm surge and flooding. I hope Fiji are as prepared as they can be.

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Edited by Somerset Squall, 14 March 2010 - 18:47 .

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fingers crossed that everyone in Fija is ready for this

Edited by cookie, 15 March 2010 - 00:38 .

[Somerset Squall]

Tomas has become a category 4 on the SS scale, with intensity climbing to 115kts. This storm, it has to be said, has been remarkably well forecast by the JTWC, right down to track and final intensity. The storm is providing powerful winds and very heavy rains to Fiji currently, and these conditions are only expected to ease tomorrow. Tomas is still expected to swing southeastwards and become involved with the mid-lattitude westerlies, which should force the completion of extratropical transition within 72hrs.

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[Coast]

www.abc.net.au/news/stories

Quote

Disaster management officials in Fiji say they have received reports of several deaths in the powerful category four cyclone that has battered the island nation for four days. The deaths are believed to have occurred in the Lau group of islands, but police say they will not be able to confirm them until communications are restored.

At least 50 homes, as well as hospitals and other public buildings, have been destroyed by Cyclone Tomas and 17,000 people have been evacuated to more than 200 shelters. Fiji's interim government has declared a state of disaster and New Zealand has announced it is sending an air force Hercules to assist in relief efforts. The cyclone has been downgraded to a category three storm. Winds of up to 250 kilometres per hour have ripped roofs off houses. Tomas moved first through the northern division and is currently affecting the smaller low-lying islands in the east.

Sai Matanatabu, a hotel worker in Suva, says it was the biggest cyclone she has lived through. "The Cyclone Tomas now we could feel is a bit stronger than what we have experienced before," she said. But Suva is located on the south-east edge of the main island, Viti Levu. Some of Ms Matanatabu's colleagues have relatives on the island of Taveuni in the north, which was one of the first and hardest hit areas. "What they could feel is strong winds. And even their neighbours, they could see their rooftop. It blew off from what they've seen. Even some of the electrical appliances as well like their washing machine," she said. That has been the story across most of the northern group of islands.

However Anthony Blake, a relief coordinator with Fiji's disaster management organisation, DISMAC, says the centre of the cyclone is now strongest in the east. "In the northern division, what we get is roofs blown off, houses flattened, trees being broken," he said. "In the eastern division in the Lau Group, we've got unconfirmed reports where whole villages have had roofs blown off and people are taking shelter in caves. "For the people in Lau it's definitely not over and it will not be over for eight to 12 hours. However for the northern division, they are breathing a sigh of relief as the winds are now dropping. "We should have a better situation overnight and into (Wednesday) and we are hoping for fine weather so that people can get out and pick up the pieces, as well as our assessment teams getting out to as many places as possible."

Senior forecaster at Fiji's bureau of meteorology, Matt Boterhoven, says the strength of the winds would have created a massive roar. "I think a few observations have managed to get through. Some places have had close to 300 millimetres (of rain) in 24 hours," he said. "A lot of storm tide of seven metres has been affecting a lot of these islands and a few people have been evacuated from coastal areas. "There would have been significant flooding, flooding in low-lying coastal areas and flooding in Labasa in the northern islands. Fifty people had to be evacuated due to rising river levels."

Damage to telecommunications has meant information about conditions on the ground in affected areas is patchy. UNICEF spokesman Tim Sutton says hospitals are having to move patients within their grounds due to winds ripping off roofs. "Several hospitals had lost their roofs. They were moving patients around from ward to ward to keep them safe," he said. "A number of schools have been damaged and we have something like 90 schools now serving as evacuation centres.
"And so it's going to be a considerable disruption to schooling even once the cyclone has passed because it will take a while to get people out of the schools."

Mr Sutton says there is likely to be around 130,000 people affected by the cyclone and even when the worst of the cyclone is over, there will still be dangers. "The Lau group are the islands to the east of Fiji. They're very low lying, very, very vulnerable to this type of event," he said. "Mainly village areas, small towns, a lot of farming. We know there's been a lot of damage to food crops. It's not a built-up area like Suva or Nadi. It's small towns and villages. "Fiji has been suffering from an outbreak of typhoid for the last month or so, so with people congregating in evacuation centres there is the potential for that also to explode. "And I know the minister of health has been very active in getting messages out to people in the evacuation centres to practice good hygiene, boil water, because there is a huge risk that by concentrating people in these cramped conditions we could also have an explosion of typhoid."

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thanks for posting coast intresting read, sad as always bout the deaths mind.

[Somerset Squall]

From Tomas' birth, it was apparent this one would wreak havoc. Doesn't make it any less sad of course.

Tomas weakened to 100kts as it slammed through Fiji, but despite rapidly approaching cooler water on an 18kt southeasterly track, Tomas has managed to re-strengthen to attain cat 4 status (SS scale) with an intensity of 115kts. This unexpected re-intensification has been put down to enhanced poleward outflow as the system sinks into the mid-lattitude westerlies. These westerlies are expected to rapidly initiate extratropical transition, which is expected to be complete in 24 hours time.

[Somerset Squall]

Track speeds have increased to 27kts in a southeasterly direction. Tomas is over cold water now, and thus is completing extratropical transition and becoming a frontal system. Regeneration is not expected.

Edited by Somerset Squall, 17 March 2010 - 18:41 .