METO UK Further Outlook 16 Day To 30 Forecast

[Tamara]

Well, I'm glad they've reverted back to their colder idea, but as others have said not much confidence to take from the forecast at the moment due it chopping and changing a bit. To be fair though, before Wednesday they had been quite consistent in regards to colder weather returning (albeit with uncertainty), so perhaps the last two days was a blip?

They read GP's latest updates on the model output discussion

[Methuselah]

That instills confidence.....quite laughable

BFTP

Why is that laughable?

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 10 Feb 2013 to Sunday 24 Feb 2013:

There are large uncertainties at this forecast range, however indications are that colder than average conditions will become more likely across all parts of the UK. Northwestern parts of the UK may well see drier than average conditions on the whole. Southern and eastern parts of the UK could see average or even greater than average amounts of precipitation.

Updated: 1207 on Sat 26 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Feb 2013 to Monday 25 Feb 2013:

There are large uncertainties at this forecast range, however indications are that colder than average conditions will become more likely across all parts of the UK. Northwestern parts of the UK may well see drier than average conditions on the whole. Southern and eastern parts of the UK could see average or even greater than average amounts of precipitation.

Updated: 1159 on Sun 27 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[chionomaniac]

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Feb 2013 to Monday 25 Feb 2013:

There are large uncertainties at this forecast range, however indications are that colder than average conditions will become more likely across all parts of the UK. Northwestern parts of the UK may well see drier than average conditions on the whole. Southern and eastern parts of the UK could see average or even greater than average amounts of precipitation.

Updated: 1159 on Sun 27 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Very much screams tilted GH scenario to me with a NE flow and undercutting.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Feb 2013 to Tuesday 26 Feb 2013:

There are large uncertainties at this forecast range, however indications are that colder than average conditions will become more likely across all parts of the UK. Northwestern parts of the UK may well see drier than average conditions on the whole. Southern and eastern parts of the UK could see average or even greater than average amounts of precipitation.

Updated: 1139 on Mon 28 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Why is that laughable?

Why change their mind so quickly, just to change back again? Bristleboy and FebB1991 summed it up. I find it very 'amateurish' TBH

BFTP

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Feb 2013 to Wednesday 27 Feb 2013:

There are large uncertainties at this forecast range, however indications are that colder than average conditions will become more likely across all parts of the UK. Northwestern parts of the UK may well see drier than average conditions on the whole. Southern and eastern parts of the UK could see average or even greater than average amounts of precipitation.

Updated: 1149 on Tue 29 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Edited January 29, 2013 by Gavin.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 14 Feb 2013 to Thursday 28 Feb 2013:

There are large uncertainties at this forecast range, however indications are that colder than average conditions will become more likely across most parts of the UK. Northwestern parts of the UK may well see drier than average conditions on the whole. Southern and eastern parts of the UK could see average or even greater than average amounts of precipitation.

Updated: 1134 on Wed 30 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 15 Feb 2013 to Friday 1 Mar 2013:

There are large uncertainties at this forecast range, however indications are that colder than average conditions may continue across most parts of the UK. Northwestern parts of the UK may well see average or slightly less than average amounts of rainfall on the whole. Southern and eastern parts of the UK could see slightly greater than average amounts of precipitation.

Updated: 1147 on Thu 31 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 16 Feb 2013 to Saturday 2 Mar 2013:

There are large uncertainties at this forecast range. Conditions will most likely start with temperatures close to or a little below average, with fairly typical winter weather across much of the UK. There are signs that a slightly colder spell may then prevail throughout much of the rest of the period, with more widespread overnight frosts.

Updated: 1210 on Fri 1 Feb 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Feb 2013 to Sunday 3 Mar 2013:

There are large uncertainties at this forecast range. Conditions will most likely start with temperatures close to or a little below average, with fairly typical winter weather across much of the UK. There are signs that a slightly colder spell may then prevail throughout much of the rest of the period, with more widespread overnight frosts.

Updated: 1159 on Sat 2 Feb 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 18 Feb 2013 to Monday 4 Mar 2013:

There are large uncertainties at this forecast range. Conditions will most likely start with temperatures close to or a little below average, with fairly typical winter weather across much of the UK. There are signs that a slightly colder spell may then prevail throughout much of the rest of the period, with more widespread overnight frosts.

Updated: 1207 on Sun 3 Feb 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 19 Feb 2013 to Tuesday 5 Mar 2013:

There are large uncertainties at this forecast range. Conditions will most likely start with temperatures close to or a little below average, with fairly typical winter weather across much of the UK. There are signs that a slightly colder spell may then prevail throughout much of the rest of the period, with more widespread overnight frosts.

Updated: 1157 on Mon 4 Feb 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 20 Feb 2013 to Wednesday 6 Mar 2013:

There are large uncertainties at this forecast range. Conditions will most likely start with temperatures close to or a little below average, with fairly typical winter weather across much of the UK. There are signs that a slightly colder spell may then prevail throughout much of the rest of the period, with more widespread overnight frosts.

Updated: 1228 on Tue 5 Feb 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Don]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 20 Feb 2013 to Wednesday 6 Mar 2013:

There are large uncertainties at this forecast range. Conditions will most likely start with temperatures close to or a little below average, with fairly typical winter weather across much of the UK. There are signs that a slightly colder spell may then prevail throughout much of the rest of the period, with more widespread overnight frosts.

Updated: 1228 on Tue 5 Feb 2013

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Still no change! I thought that there would have been at least a slight change after the overnight ECM 32 update?

Edited February 5, 2013 by Don

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 21 Feb 2013 to Thursday 7 Mar 2013:

There are large uncertainties at this forecast range. Conditions will most likely start with temperatures close to or a little below average, with fairly typical winter weather across much of the UK. There are signs that a slightly colder spell may then prevail throughout much of the rest of the period, with more widespread overnight frosts.

Updated: 1135 on Wed 6 Feb 2013

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Edited February 6, 2013 by Stuart

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 21 Feb 2013 to Thursday 7 Mar 2013:

There are large uncertainties at this forecast range. Conditions will most likely start with temperatures close to or a little below average, with fairly typical winter weather across much of the UK. There are signs that a slightly colder spell may then prevail throughout much of the rest of the period, with more widespread overnight frosts.

Updated: 1134 on Thu 7 Feb 2013.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 23 Feb 2013 to Saturday 9 Mar 2013:

Conditions will most likely start with temperatures close to or a little below average, with fairly typical winter weather across much of the UK. Otherwise, there are larger than average uncertainties concerning most likely dominant weather type, though there are signs that a slightly colder spell may then prevail throughout much of the rest of the period, with more widespread overnight frosts.

Updated: 1218 on Fri 8 Feb 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 24 Feb 2013 to Sunday 10 Mar 2013:

At first, conditions look likely to be rather unsettled towards the north and west of the UK, with temperatures generally close to normal. The best of any drier and brighter spells towards the south and east, where temperatures will be a little below average. Through the rest of the period, colder conditions are likely with temperatures below average for many parts of the UK, leading to overnight frost becoming more widespread and an increasing risk of wintry precipitation.

Updated: 1226 on Sat 9 Feb 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[syed2878]

so where's that change to mor wintery outlook from the met? Its the same forecast they just worded it differently. Reading a cuppal of comments on the moddel thread u would think the hole outlook has changed.

[johnholmes]

I thought my eyesight was bad - there are a fair number of changes let alone of emphasis

[Methuselah]

I thought my eyesight was bad - there are a fair number of changes let alone of emphasis

Definitely changes there, John...They're not even encrypted...

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 25 Feb 2013 to Monday 11 Mar 2013:

Some signs of a colder than average weather type becoming established over the UK for the start of this period. Then, whilst there is, as ever, some uncertainty through this forecast period, generally colder than average conditions are likely to persist across many parts of the UK. Frequent frosty nights are then also expected, and the risk of wintry precipitation is then likely to be slightly greater than average.

Updated: 1147 on Sun 10 Feb 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[johnholmes]

and another tighten of the cold notch it seems

I have no idea what they use other than the fabled EC 32 dayer, and in private correspondence that was their main model guide a couple of years ago. That and the extended version of Mogreps I imagine now along, of course, with a great deal of human analysis of anything they have to arrive at the forecast.

So if they are correct spring may be a little late this year!

Edited February 11, 2013 by johnholmes