METO UK Further Outlook 16 Day To 30 Forecast

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 27 Nov 2012 to Tuesday 11 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that the changeable conditions will continue through the start of this forecast period. There is also a signal for temperatures to be close to or just below the seasonal average. Into December, although there are no strong indications that any particular weather type is going to dominate, on balance colder, drier conditions than at present are favoured, rather than milder, wetter weather, especially across the southern half of the UK.

Updated: 1135 on Mon 12 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[fromey]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 27 Nov 2012 to Tuesday 11 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that the changeable conditions will continue through the start of this forecast period. There is also a signal for temperatures to be close to or just below the seasonal average. Into December, although there are no strong indications that any particular weather type is going to dominate, on balance colder, drier conditions than at present are favoured, rather than milder, wetter weather, especially across the southern half of the UK.

Updated: 1135 on Mon 12 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Copy and Paste springs to mind!!

fromey

[syed2878]

i do beleave that's what they do they change it tuesday's and friday's i could be wrong though.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The mid and long range met office forecast update should prove interesting today in light of the current model trend, fingers crossed they still go for a cold outlook :-)

[syed2878]

i was about to say that we will find out in a cuppal of hours time. Some1 mensiond in the md thread that ecm going with nb for the end of the month according to mat h on twitter.

[johnholmes]

I posted how often the longer range forecasts were updated way back in 2010, nothing has changed since that I am aware of.

private e mail from within UK Met.

my question

I've just noticed Met doing a 'new' longer range outlook 16-31 days?

Is it going to be daily?

Is it in place of the seasonal outlooks?

If so have you any idea what outputs they are using to go that far synoptically?

thanks if you can answer any of this.

and the reply<p>

• No traditional seasonal forecast will be issued at the end of February for March, April and May.
  
• The ‘seasonal’ tab will be replaced with 16 to 30 day tab and this will have a forecast, based on the Monthly Outlook, behind it.
  
• From mid/late March a rolling three month global and regional outlook will be produced once a month and this will appear on our Research pages.
  

I understand that the new "16 to 30 day outlook will be regularly updated" !

I think that actually means that it will be updated, when necessary, to ensure a clean transition between the 6-15 day and the 16-30 day stories...

The new 16-30 day text being based on the 'Monthly Outlook' means that it is based on ECMWF output that we post-process in-house. The Monthly Outlook is a commercial product, (charts & words) typically issued once a fortnight, with an option to pay for for a weekly update.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 28 Nov 2012 to Wednesday 12 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that the changeable conditions will continue through at least the start of this forecast period. There is also a signal for temperatures to be close to or just below the seasonal average. Into December, although there are no strong indications that any particular weather type is going to dominate, on balance colder and drier than average conditions are favoured, rather than milder, wetter weather, especially across the southern half of the UK.

Updated: 1137 on Tue 13 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Their confidence is slowly ebbing away re colder conditions at end of month into Dec...just as the shorter range models began to show the possibility.

BFTP

[throwoff]

I already think this winter will be mild and boring.

[johnholmes]

Their confidence is slowly ebbing away re colder conditions at end of month into Dec...just as the shorter range models began to show the possibility.

BFTP

very odd comment Fred, their 16-30 day outlook as remained exactly the same for about a week, exact words no changes, as some have posted a bit repetative but they have not as you suggest 'Their confidence is slowly ebbing away'

why oh why do some of you misquote?

Edited November 13, 2012 by johnholmes

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I already think this winter will be mild and boring.

Majority of winters don't start with early cold. I wouldn't worry about that. What is the reasonng for that train of thought?

BFTP

[Don]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 28 Nov 2012 to Wednesday 12 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period, but there are signs that the changeable conditions will continue through at least the start of this forecast period. There is also a signal for temperatures to be close to or just below the seasonal average. Into December, although there are no strong indications that any particular weather type is going to dominate, on balance colder and drier than average conditions are favoured, rather than milder, wetter weather, especially across the southern half of the UK.

Updated: 1137 on Tue 13 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

No change from yesterday then with the ECM 32 update? Sounds like they're not overly confident with the model at the moment as that still points towards northern blocking around month's end?

Edited November 13, 2012 by Don

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

very odd commetn Fred, their 16-30 day outlook as remained exactly the same for about a week, exact words no changes, as some have posted a bit repetative but they have not as you suggest 'Their confidence is slowly ebbing away'

why oh why do some of you misquote?

John

Weren't they saying 'with temps below or well below the seasonal average'? Maybe I read it wrong but I'm sure I read it with folk getting excited about it?

First this.....

In addition, there is a stronger signal for temperatures to stay largely below average for the time of year, with a risk of frosts in any overnight clear spells. Accompanied with such conditions, there is the threat of precipitation being wintry in nature at times, especially over higher ground.

And then this.....but also colder, with temperatures well below the seasonal average. This will give a greater risk of overnight frosts....

BFTP

Edited November 13, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[johnholmes]

If you look on the 16-30 day outlooks on Net Wx the exact words have been used at least back to Friday 9 November, I did not look further back

[Methuselah]

Their confidence is slowly ebbing away re colder conditions at end of month into Dec...just as the shorter range models began to show the possibility.

BFTP

Why would they change their overall wording? Nothing substantial has changed.

And, as for the models, that's simply because the end of the month is almost within their 'prediction' range...A lot can go 'wrong' in 15 days!

[bluearmy]

Thay had used the phrase 'well below' prior to last fridays wording re the ecm 32 dayer issued that day. presumably, they will wait to see the next run on friday before changing their wording again as what they have is suficient to cover them re the updated run.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

If you look on the 16-30 day outlooks on Net Wx the exact words have been used at least back to Friday 9 November, I did not look further back

Admittedly John they have really ever said suggestions of and stronger signal, but it seems to me that the signal or their viewpoint is more 'up in the air, now....just an observation and not a criticism.

BFTP

Why would they change their overall wording? Nothing substantial has changed.

And, as for the models, that's simply because the end of the month is almost within their 'prediction' range...A lot can go 'wrong' in 15 days!

Because they have Pete....simple observation, nothing else

BFTP

Edited November 13, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[shedhead]

I'm not sure much of their reticense to use more 'interesting' language isn't down to the fact they simply want to keep a lid on things. They are no doubt accurely aware that the use of certain words and terminology can and often does promote a feeding frenzy within sections of the media and lead to a plethora of misquotations, sometimes to a point where their legal eagles must begin to lick their lips in anticipation.

[SnowObsessor90]

Their confidence is slowly ebbing away re colder conditions at end of month into Dec...just as the shorter range models began to show the possibility.

BFTP

Looks like you've called right there, according to Ian Ferguson the UKMO currently currently favour the more Mobile solution over anything cold and blocked for the 10-15 day period so given that it would reasonable to assume that there's still a lot of uncertainly for the period after that hence they've been reluctant to change things for the 16-30 day outlook despite the ECM 32 dayer still not really backing away from it's general idea.

Edited November 13, 2012 by Anonymous21

[SnowObsessor90]

...

Edited November 13, 2012 by Anonymous21

[AWD]

I think the key thing to note is Ian is talking about the 10-15 day timeframe, where as the NWP charts & forecasts by Netweather members are suggestive of blocking/cold affecting the UK post 15 days ( ie change of the month ).

Also, I don't know whether Ian is talking about the UK above, or the NH. If he is talking solely about the UK, then we could be looking at blocking developing within the next 15 days in the NH, but not affecting the UK until post 15 days.

In any way, looking at the NWP output, ensemble forecasts etc, I think that's a good call from the Meto, and has Ian says above, whatever happens after 15 days is still up in the air, which is the timescale a lot of people on here are talking about with regards to cold affecting the UK.

Note, a 25% of ensemble members opting for blocking within the 15 day period, so the Meto not exactly ruling it out either.

That's the way I read it anyway, am on phone so its easy to miss vital words, apologies if I have misread parts.

Edited November 13, 2012 by AWD

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 29 Nov 2012 to Thursday 13 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period. Whilst changeable conditions are considered more likely than not to be affecting much of the UK at the start of this forecast period, some signs are beginning to emerge for more settled conditions to develop over parts of Europe later this month. The signal is that these conditions may extend towards the UK during the first part of December. So, although there are no strong indications that any particular weather type is going to dominate during this period, on balance, colder and drier than average conditions are favoured over the recent milder, and for some, wetter weather many areas have experienced this week.

Updated: 1156 on Wed 14 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[AWD]

Sounds like they are going for Scandinavia heights & a continental flow rather than heights to our NW.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 30 Nov 2012 to Friday 14 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period. Whilst changeable conditions are considered more likely initially, some signs are beginning to emerge for more settled conditions to develop over parts of Europe. The signal is that these conditions may extend towards the UK during the first part of December. So, although there are no strong indications of any particular weather type predominating, on balance, colder and drier-than-average conditions are favoured over the recent mild and damp weather many areas have experienced.

Updated: 1135 on Thu 15 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 1 Dec 2012 to Saturday 15 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period. Whilst changeable conditions are considered more likely initially, some signs are beginning to emerge for more settled conditions to develop over parts of Europe. The signal is that these conditions may extend towards the UK during the first part of December. So, although there are no strong indications of any particular weather type predominating, on balance, colder and drier-than-average conditions are favoured over the recent mild and damp weather many areas have experienced.

Updated: 1205 on Fri 16 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html