METO UK Further Outlook 16 Day To 30 Forecast

[Tom Quintavalle]

UK Outlook for Saturday 28 Jan 2012 to Saturday 11 Feb 2012:

Unsettled conditions are expected to continue through the end of January and into February. Temperatures generally slightly below average for the time of year at first, with a risk of overnight frosts in clearer periods. Some spells of rain or showers too, perhaps turning to snow, mainly in the north and over high ground. Into the start the new month, temperatures are likely to become around average with periods of rain and above average cloud amounts in places. Across the northwest temperatures may remain a little colder than average, with more in the way of dry spells.

Updated: 1215 on Fri 13 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

That's not what I wanted to see really but trying to visualize in synoptic terms the last 2 sentences, perhaps a little hope there.

Regards,

Tom

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 29 Jan 2012 to Sunday 12 Feb 2012:

Unsettled conditions are expected to continue through the end of January and into February. Temperatures generally slightly below average for the time of year at first with showers at times, which may turn wintry, particularly over high ground and in the north and overnight frosts in clearer periods. Some milder spells with rain are possible too. Temperatures are likely to become around average as we move through the beginning of February, with periods of rain and above average cloud amounts in places. Across the northwest temperatures may remain a little colder than average, with more in the way of dry spells.

Updated: 1137 on Sat 14 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 30 Jan 2012 to Monday 13 Feb 2012:

Rather unsettled conditions are expected to continue through the end of January and into February. Temperatures around or slightly below average for the time of year at first with showers at times, which may turn wintry, particularly over high ground and in the north and overnight frosts in clearer periods. Some milder spells with rain are possible too. Temperatures are likely to become near to normal as we move through the beginning of February, with periods of rain and above average cloud amounts in places. Across the northwest temperatures may remain a little colder than average, with more in the way of dry spells.

Updated: 1141 on Sun 15 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 31 Jan 2012 to Tuesday 14 Feb 2012:

Rather unsettled conditions are expected to continue into February. Temperatures are likely to be around or slightly below average for the time of year at first with showers and longer spells of rain at times, which may turn wintry, particularly over high ground and in the north. Overnight frosts are likely in clearer periods, but some milder spells with rain are possible too.

Updated: 1206 on Mon 16 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[mountain shadow]

Whilst we know the Met Office are cautious by nature, zero sign of any prolonged colder weather.

[Summer Sun]

They are covering all options there this can go either way cold and snowy or mild and wet for February its anyones guess at the moment as to which way it will go.

[AWD]

They are certainly taking their time producing an up date today!

Senior forecaster sat at his desk scratching his head me reckons! Lol!

[Don]

They are certainly taking their time producing an up date today!

Senior forecaster sat at his desk scratching his head me reckons! Lol!

Could be! Today's update will be based on the updated ECM 32?

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Ummm great 6-15 day outlook today. Mentioning the significent risk of colder weather :-)

[tollgateiow]

It's out, I can see why it was delayed, the last sentence is a turn up for the books!

[Summer Sun]

No wonder its late very positive update today

[AWD]

The 16 - 30 day aint out yet, unless I'm doing something wrong! The 6 - 15 day outlook has been updated though, very interesting end of the month!

[Don]

The 16 - 30 day aint out yet, unless I'm doing something wrong! The 6 - 15 day outlook has been updated though, very interesting end of the month!

The 6-15 day update is very interesting and certainly the best forecast from them during this winter so far. However, they still slightly favour average conditions continuing. It is nevertheless a big step in the right direction and they mention a significant risk of cold wintry weather rather than a slight risk. Fingers crossed!

[Summer Sun]

The 16 to 30 day update is still been updated a big update maybe?

Edited January 17, 2012 by Gavin D

[AWD]

The 6-15 day update is very interesting and certainly the best forecast from them during this winter so far. However, they still slightly favour average conditions continuing. It is nevertheless a big step in the right direction and they mention a significant risk of cold wintry weather rather than a slight risk. Fingers crossed!

A fortnight out and you always have to favour average conditions over cold though, as average is always more probable over cold. No matter how strong the signal for cold is from the model output, a fortnight in UK weather is a long time.

The pleasing thing is this is the first time they have mentioned a significant risk of widespread cold and snow in places, so there must also be a reasonably strong signal for this solution in order for them to mention it in their update.

Nevertheless, it keeps us coldies interested in model watching for the next couple of weeks now!

[Southern Storm]

UK Outlook for Sunday 22 Jan 2012 to Tuesday 31 Jan 2012:

Sunday is likely to be chilly and windy, with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers. Showers should be most frequent in the north, with snow on hills, whilst the south should remain driest. Similar conditions will likely persist through the following days, with further showers and some more persistent rain likely to affect many areas. Temperatures will probably be near average, occasionally mild, but with overnight frosts possible in any quieter interludes. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the weather during the last few days of January. The slightly more probable scenario at present is that conditions will remain similar to those described above. However there is also a significant risk of much colder weather becoming established right across the UK, with snow in places and widespread overnight frosts.

Updated: 1310 on Tue 17 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Edited January 17, 2012 by thunderman24

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 22 Jan 2012 to Tuesday 31 Jan 2012:

Sunday is likely to be chilly and windy, with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers. Showers should be most frequent in the north, with snow on hills, whilst the south should remain driest. Similar conditions will likely persist through the following days, with further showers and some more persistent rain likely to affect many areas. Temperatures will probably be near average, occasionally mild, but with overnight frosts possible in any quieter interludes. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the weather during the last few days of January. The slightly more probable scenario at present is that conditions will remain similar to those described above. However there is also a significant risk of much colder weather becoming established right across the UK, with snow in places and widespread overnight frosts.

Updated: 1310 on Tue 17 Jan 2012

There is already a thread for this

[Southern Storm]

I know, everyone was talking about it but i couldn't see it here

[AWD]

I dont think they know what to put on the 16 - 30 day outlook! Either that or they dont want to update it today!

[Summer Sun]

I dont think they know what to put on the 16 - 30 day outlook! Either that or they dont want to update it today!

Yes very strange today almost half 2 and no update.

[Eskimo]

Yes very strange today almost half 2 and no update.

They are preparing for snowmageddon? :lol:

[Don]

Now updated and very interesting. Talk about crunch time for the rest of winter. Some very tense model watching during the next few weeks me thinks!

Edited January 17, 2012 by Don

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Updated now :-)

UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 15 Feb 2012:

The forecast for the first half of February is very uncertain. As with the day 6 to 15 forecast, there appear to be two main scenarios, each equally probable, but which are very different. It is also fairly likely that the prevailing weather type at the end of January will continue into February. The first scenario consists of a changeable westerly or southwesterly type, with rain at times (amounts greatest in the west), and with temperatures noticeably above average for early February, with only occasional frosts. The alternative scenario is that very much colder weather, with winds from an easterly or northeasterly quarter, will prevail well into February, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that was most vulnerable to snowfall.

Updated: 1436 on Tue 17 Jan 2012

[AWD]

Talk about make or break! Both scenarios couldnt be further apart! Lol!

[Radiating Dendrite]

So........it will either be freezing cold heaven or Mr. Bartlett!

Erm...........wow

Maybe the 32 ECM has gone mental and needs recalibrating!!