75 replies to this topic

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http://www.accuweath...=VBLOG_laminate floorI&title=Nasty%20Hurricane%20Season%20Lurking

sounds interesting.

[kold weather]

Yeah I've been thinking about this season as well recently, there are a lot of factors that really do favour an above average season, though the real wildcard is going to be the state of the ENSO. I'm going to do a blog about this season over the weekend.

I suspect though unless the El Nino holds a good deal stornger then some of the models are progging, theres nothing to stop this being above, quite possibly well above normal.

By the way the long range ECM that Joe B mentions is VERY favourable indeed, above normal sea temps, a *cold* neutral ENSO and below normal sea surface pressures across the basin. A -ve NAO in spring would put another nail into the above normal season idea, but of course each season is different.

All I'll say for now is the seasons that currently look somewhat close to the expected pattern in the Spring/Summer that I'm looking at is 1958, 1966, 1965, 1995, 1998 (Only if the El Nino decays totally) 2003, 2005 and 2007...quite a few good matches from this current warm phase as well as a couple from the 50-60s. Obviously some big active seasons in that lot!

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kold weather, on 25 February 2010 - 22:58 , said:

Yeah I've been thinking about this season as well recently, there are a lot of factors that really do favour an above average season, though the real wildcard is going to be the state of the ENSO. I'm going to do a blog about this season over the weekend.

I suspect though unless the El Nino holds a good deal stornger then some of the models are progging, theres nothing to stop this being above, quite possibly well above normal.

By the way the long range ECM that Joe B mentions is VERY favourable indeed, above normal sea temps, a *cold* neutral ENSO and below normal sea surface pressures across the basin. A -ve NAO in spring would put another nail into the above normal season idea, but of course each season is different.

All I'll say for now is the seasons that currently look somewhat close to the expected pattern in the Spring/Summer that I'm looking at is 1958, 1966, 1965, 1995, 1998 (Only if the El Nino decays totally) 2003, 2005 and 2007...quite a few good matches from this current warm phase as well as a couple from the 50-60s. Obviously some big active seasons in that lot!

Thanks for you're thoughts Kold. Looking forward to reading you're blog update.

its going to be an interesting watch as we approach spring summer.

[summer blizzard]

Well, i am going to have to agree with the forecast for an above average year, El Nino is already weakening, we are just waiting for the lag effect of this, trade winds should be perfect so long as the QBO peaks around -25, and sea surface temperatures will warm very quickly in late Spring, though i agree about the forecast for below average pressure regardless.

1977 - 6/5/1
1987 - 7/3/1
1992 - 7/4/1
2003 - 16/7/3

These are my favoured anologues, if El Nino stays weak to moderate over the summer, then we see the anologues of 1977, 1987 and 1992 in play, though if things go as expected, 2003 becomes the favoured anologue.

[kold weather]

Of course it is well worth remembering that those three first years all came in the negative phase of the Atlantic, therefore that alone would probably mean even if El Nino stayed totals would be at least a little higher then those.

Anyway SST's are really impressing me, they are actually at this stage a little warmer in parts then even 2005, and thats not going to be going away anytime soon given a possible new -ve nout in the Atlantic and the upper high being between the UK and Greenland, so nothing to stop the waters warming yet further.

The ENSO signal holds all the cards...as I said before I'd call a hyperactive season right here and now IF it weren't for the El Nino...

[Somerset Squall]

Let's hope it's nothing like 2004 which had the same name list...

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kold weather, on 26 February 2010 - 17:50 , said:

Of course it is well worth remembering that those three first years all came in the negative phase of the Atlantic, therefore that alone would probably mean even if El Nino stayed totals would be at least a little higher then those.

Anyway SST's are really impressing me, they are actually at this stage a little warmer in parts then even 2005, and thats not going to be going away anytime soon given a possible new -ve nout in the Atlantic and the upper high being between the UK and Greenland, so nothing to stop the waters warming yet further.

The ENSO signal holds all the cards...as I said before I'd call a hyperactive season right here and now IF it weren't for the El Nino...

wow!

i thought itd be active but wasn't expecting to read this!

[kold weather]

Of course the thing to remember is all these good factors will count for nothing if the El Nino induces a strong shear pattern across the basin (though even then because of the heat content, there will still be the risk of a 'biggie') however if the ENSO gets close to neutral by August, then I really think its all systems go for a big season.

SS, yeah hopefully not, we best hope and pray the El Nino remains above 0.7C, at least that would cap activity to some degree but as I just said, one biggie is all you need, just look at Andrew in 92.

The early Spring is a horrible time for the climate models to get a good grip on ENSO signals because they tend to be in big flux due to the changing seasons, for now its holding at 1.2C and I think it'll hold close to that value for a little while yet due to strengthening of the temps under the water, they also are shifting somewhat eastwards which I suspect will cause a Nino look in the Atlantic for the first half of the season even if it does decay.

[Iceberg]

I saw this thread yesterday and it got me thinking(a bit anyway).
I am not knowledgable enough to say what the 2010 season will be like, certaintly not this far out.
But we really need to see a shifting of the hadley cell northwards to reduce the shear, it's spent the last two years too far south. This will have the added benefit of giving us a better summer

Re Enso the western nature of El Nino should help things abit even if El Nino maintains a weak strength even during J/A/S.

BTW good post above Kold.

Edited by Iceberg, 27 February 2010 - 07:53 .

[kold weather]

Yeah thats something I'm watching out for as well Iceberg, its certainly a complex mish max of things that come together to get an above average season. I'll put out a blog thing about some of the factors I'm wathcing out for this season, needless to say though I think out of all the factors only one or two are negative (granted one is the El nino, which is a HUGE factor) and all the rest favour an above average hurricane season!

Shall be very interesting to see how it all pans out in the next few months. As I've said before most of the seasons I'm looking at right now that had either a weak El Nino or neutral and was in the warm phase of the AMO came in above or well above average which boosts my confidence, of course as has been said, the wildcard really is the El Nino!

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El-nino on its way out according to euro forecast

http://www.ecmwf.int...01002!chart.gif

[kold weather]

Yeah the ECM is very bullish, however the March forecast IMO won't be nearly quite as agressive, I think the big drop in late Jan from 1.7 to 1.2C may have somewhat 'fooled' the models in early Feb to drop things too rapidly, I suspect the March update will be less agressive but we shall see!

Needless to say the NCEP model is also suggesting down to either borderline El Nino/Neutral conditions or even slightly cold neutral so things still look interesting. Its a wildcard though thats for sure, as I said in my blog.

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1st march 2010



2nd march 2009

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I believe the ECM has it right, this El nino is dying and dying fast. The SST signal points to a very interesting and 'busy' season and El nino won't be a dampening factor as it fading will continue possibly even accelerate.

BFTP

[Iceberg]

Sorry Fred it's not, it's stayed the same figure for the last 4 weeks on a weekly basis !.

They are interesting charts, but there is noway on earth that ENSO has lost over 1C in 1 day. !
AS well as the waters off the coast of Africa and also the southern Atlantic.
The bottom chart seems more than a little wrong to me.

[summer blizzard]

Iceberg, on 04 March 2010 - 11:49 , said:

Sorry Fred it's not, it's stayed the same figure for the last 4 weeks on a weekly basis !.

They are interesting charts, but there is noway on earth that ENSO has lost over 1C in 1 day. !
AS well as the waters off the coast of Africa and also the southern Atlantic.
The bottom chart seems more than a little wrong to me.

The top chart is this years, the bottom last years, El Nino looks like getting no stronger regardless of weather it "dies".

[Iceberg]

summer blizzard, on 04 March 2010 - 12:19 , said:

The top chart is this years, the bottom last years, El Nino looks like getting no stronger regardless of weather it "dies".

Woops that would explain it then.

It does show quite a difference over the year, with much higher heat content this year.

BTW heres the latest ENSO hear content which has been increasing again recently.

Attached Thumbnails

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[kold weather]

Yeah SST's may briefly rise again in the 3 and 3.4 zone IMO and the latest Kelvin wave may cause a shift towards an East based El Nino, remains to be seen however!

So expect maybe a small rise in March followed by a decent decline during the late Spring, however I'm still expecting the weak El Nino to hang around till say August time where it'll probably decline towards warm neutral.

I don't expect given all the other factors for it to be much of a hinderence, if the El Nino holds on it may cause a little more shear but I certainly don't see it as a season killer, not unless it really does stay as it is now.

[cookie]

another set of charts for comparison

march 13th 2009



march 13th 2010

[kold weather]

The latest updates from the ECM are utterly insane for the summer, they are actually possibly even more favourable then 2005!

Anyway SST's are running WELL above normal and only March 69 and March 58 can compare and both seasons were active, 1958 had 10 storms with 50% reaching major hurricane status, and 1969 was one of the busiest seasons ever in terms of number of storms, both had category-5 hurricanes.

Latest ENSO models now go neutral/cold neutral, though I still think they maybe a little agressive with this...however if that does happen then a hyperactive season...the CFS forecasts now go cold Neutral and some of the ensemble members go decently into the La Nina range...the ECM is even more agressive with the La Nina with the mean going weak La Nina and quite a sizeable minority go for a La Nina in the moderate region.

Whilst I think the ECM forecasts are too agressive with the La Nina, there seems to be strong agreement now that we will get out of the El Nino and this paves the way clear for possibly a very active season and maybe a dangerous one...