South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Lynxus]

Models are suggesting it will turn colder again by the weekend with the prospect of my

disruptive snow for the West Country. No sign of any mild westher for the foresable I'm afraid

I wouldnt get too happy about it.

Spring is on its way and we may be clutching at straws soon ( more so )

[Lynxus]

Its 2c here now,

I have a feeling its gonna be rain today.

[Schmac]

have just woken up to a dusting of snow out side! first time it has lay for a long time!

Nice!

There was a slight dusting here at work when I arrived...

Temperature was 0.5°c (about 45 minutes ago)

[Nights King]

Nice!

There was a slight dusting here at work when I arrived...

Temperature was 0.5°c (about 45 minutes ago)

The front is nipping at my heels now! light snow just started to fall!

[monkeyuk]

Going for Rain here today

[dogs32]

small fine flakes in the wind here

Edited February 23, 2010 by dogs32

[Lynxus]

Snowing here.

Fine flakes though.

3c now.

Im sure this main front will be snow to start but then heavy rain

Edited February 23, 2010 by Lynxus

[kent]

Pouring down with very wet rain here in Poole as expected good luck to those further north.

[Ian Fergusson]

Im sure this main front will be snow to start but then heavy rain

Yup, that's the broad plan, but snow might be a tad reluctant to depart the Forest of Dean quite so readily in favour of rain. Snow over Exmoor / Quantocks and probably Mendips will be a transient feature this morning / early afternoon. Tomorrow's gig will be rain; ditto rest of the working week (looks truly dire for Thurs/Fri and warnings likely to be issued).

Weekend snow threat is further north based on current ensembles but it's irrelevant: potential for some noteworthy weather anyway into Sunday; the latest UK-GM just received looks very wild; and as the UKMO Ops Centre folks note to us:

"There remains a large spread in deterministic and EPS output regarding intensity, track and timing of major low

moving towards the UK from the S/SW this weekend, largely because this system is yet to form and originates from an

area well south of ’more traditional’ breeding grounds for major lows (it originates as a kind of triple point wave ESE of

Florida later today/early tomorrow and tracks towards the Canary Islands before turning North late this week)."

Could be very interesting indeed....

[Lynxus]

Yup, that's the broad plan, but snow might be a tad reluctant to depart the Forest of Dean quite so readily in favour of rain. Snow over Exmoor / Quantocks and probably Mendips will be a transient feature this morning / early afternoon. Tomorrow's gig will be rain; ditto rest of the working week (looks truly dire for Thurs/Fri and warnings likely to be issued).

Weekend snow threat is further north based on current ensembles but it's irrelevant: potential for some noteworthy weather anyway into Sunday; the latest UK-GM just received looks very wild; and as the UKMO Ops Centre folks note to us:

"There remains a large spread in deterministic and EPS output regarding intensity, track and timing of major low

moving towards the UK from the S/SW this weekend, largely because this system is yet to form and originates from an

area well south of ’more traditional’ breeding grounds for major lows (it originates as a kind of triple point wave ESE of

Florida later today/early tomorrow and tracks towards the Canary Islands before turning North late this week)."

Could be very interesting indeed....

I suppose with that amount of warmth and moisture in that potential system and any cold air left here could be interesting with regards to storms and very heavy PPN from home grown cells.

Would be even better if it was proper cold here, But unlikely

[Nights King]

Im of on my day drip now

Snowing hard outside up here now as well!

[TEITS]

Weekend snow threat is further north based on current ensembles but it's irrelevant: potential for some noteworthy weather anyway into Sunday; the latest UK-GM just received looks very wild; and as the UKMO Ops Centre folks note to us:

"There remains a large spread in deterministic and EPS output regarding intensity, track and timing of major low

moving towards the UK from the S/SW this weekend, largely because this system is yet to form and originates from an

area well south of ’more traditional’ breeding grounds for major lows (it originates as a kind of triple point wave ESE of

Florida later today/early tomorrow and tracks towards the Canary Islands before turning North late this week)."

Could be very interesting indeed....

Yes I have been following this on the model discussion thread. The combination of the colder air to the N moving S at the end of the week combined with this nasty LP developing certainly needs watching. Im still uncertain how far S the colder air will be and im also uncertain how deep this LP will be and what track it will take. However the potential of a 970mb LP encountering the colder air across the UK remains possible and could go bang across some parts!

[Schmac]

Yup, that's the broad plan, but snow might be a tad reluctant to depart the Forest of Dean quite so readily in favour of rain. Snow over Exmoor / Quantocks and probably Mendips will be a transient feature this morning / early afternoon. Tomorrow's gig will be rain; ditto rest of the working week (looks truly dire for Thurs/Fri and warnings likely to be issued).

Weekend snow threat is further north based on current ensembles but it's irrelevant: potential for some noteworthy weather anyway into Sunday; the latest UK-GM just received looks very wild; and as the UKMO Ops Centre folks note to us:

"There remains a large spread in deterministic and EPS output regarding intensity, track and timing of major low

moving towards the UK from the S/SW this weekend, largely because this system is yet to form and originates from an

area well south of 'more traditional' breeding grounds for major lows (it originates as a kind of triple point wave ESE of

Florida later today/early tomorrow and tracks towards the Canary Islands before turning North late this week)."

Could be very interesting indeed....

Cheers for the update Ian!

Nothing happening in Bath at the moment... Dry, cold, cloudy, dull...

[SteveB]

Light rain with the odd bit of sleet mixed in.

[Wilxy]

New metoffice warning for heavy snow and just started snowing

[Schmac]

Yes I have been following this on the model discussion thread. The combination of the colder air to the N moving S at the end of the week combined with this nasty LP developing certainly needs watching. Im still uncertain how far S the colder air will be and im also uncertain how deep this LP will be and what track it will take. However the potential of a 970mb LP encountering the colder air across the UK remains possible and could go bang across some parts!

Cheers TEITS!

I've been following your thoughts (and those of a few others!) on the MOD thread for the past few weeks...

Very interesting reading!

Would be nice if that cold air did make it down this far, but looking pretty unlikely at the moment...

But the models do seem to change their minds every now and again lately!!

[slb97]

Just started to...................rain here!

[Schmac]

Snowing here now!...

Wind is picking up too!...

[jethro]

Been snowing here for an hour or so but nothing settling, yesterday it snowed on and off most of the day too but nothing settled then either; not sure which is worse, no snow or melting on impact snow - seems such a waste.

[Andy Bown]

Sleet and 2.2c, only interesting when it gets a bit heavier so wet flakes reach the ground, although I expect it is snowing up on Salisbury Plain.

[Wilxy]

Snow is sleety and v small flakes so well not getting that excited.

[slb97]

Goodness me - we actually have some snowflakes mixed in with the rain..........!!! Didn't see that coming

[slinky1989]

Rain here in the centre of bath.

[skidders]

Had a brief snow shower here but according to the radar something should be falling now but we are getting nothing. Can't see this coming to anything at all even up north unless it intensifies a lot!!

[Schmac]

Yep, not much happening here either (Bath, at the top of Lansdown)...

A few flakes blowing around in the wind and that's about it...