Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 23

[LomondSnowstorm]

A new thread for the REAL cold spell

[LadyPakal]

Nicely done, LS!

[Mondy]

Tnx LSS !

So, cards on table, since I personally lost interest on here recently --- where/when/how/why will/who have most snow? What will lowest temps be. Another -22.6c possible ?

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Always wanted to do this!

http://forum.netweat...-discussion-23/

Here you go!

LS

Ha ha.

Aren't you the lucky one. All that time braving the model thread has paid off.

1.7 C here, just drizzle etc.

As for the 1978 you were talking about the other night.. Was trying to remember the date of the event in the Highlands when my folks were cut off in Carrbridge. I was just 2, so obviously don't remember it!

See this for some cool pics:

http://www.carrbridge.com/pdf/2007/newsl/17TH%20EDITION%20Pages%207%20_%208%20web.pdf

[LomondSnowstorm]

To get the thread rolling, here's a chart from the last NAE (remember it is fairly conservative when predicting precipitation type)

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/08/basis12/ukuk/prty/10021012_0812.gif

[LomondSnowstorm]

Tnx LSS !

So, cards on table, since I personally lost interest on here recently --- where/when/how/why will/who have most snow? What will lowest temps be. Another -22.6c possible ?

I don't see that happening. Where? Generally east, perhaps areas more prone to snow from northerlies, but troughs and fronts are likely to move down the east of this weak high http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-66.png?18 .

When? Showers possible tomorrow, but the UKMO and GFS disagree quite a lot - the UKMO wants a snow event for eastern Scotland on Wednesday while the GFS is having none of it http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW42-594.GIF?08-18 http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100208/18/39/ukprec.png

It also shows some light snow on Thursday evening http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100208/18/75/ukprec.png

But I'm still thinking that any chance of a major event is confined to after the high has retrogressed.

The worry is that the PV is pushed too far west, but I think it is too early to say for certain. There is certainly potential in that evolution, but details, as always, remain to be seen.

LS

[howham]

Snowing lightly here!

[LomondSnowstorm]

2- faced Met Office again? http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ta/st_andrews_forecast_weather.html

How does supposedly 24 hours of allegedly heavy snowfall not get some kind of advisory?

[Cheggers]

2- faced Met Office again? http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

How does supposedly 24 hours of allegedly heavy snowfall not get some kind of advisory?

Be thankful, Met warning seems to the the kiss of death this winter so far!!!

What's your gut instinct on the possible PV descending on Scotland? I think BFTP was keen on some sort of effect, but his days keep moving by a few.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Be thankful, Met warning seems to the the kiss of death this winter so far!!!

What's your gut instinct on the possible PV descending on Scotland? I think BFTP was keen on some sort of effect, but his days keep moving by a few.

Gut instinct is partly that it's too good to be true really, but another part of me sees that northerlies get shunted further east as time goes on, especially as models are very progressive in general to end cold spells, so I think something along the lines of this is likely to occur. A note also is that it may not be much of the actual PV in the flow, depending on the model. The ECM has a chunk of it in it, but again due to the low being further west this ends up further west http://www.meteociel...M0-168.GIF?08-0 .

But because the low undercuts, this allows the cold air to flow our way, and the cold pool to our northeast has invigorated, a major snow event followed by an authentically cold easterly is possible http://www.meteociel...M1-240.GIF?08-0 .

The GFS isn't bad either, but again the main PV ends up west, further west than the ECM even http://91.121.94.83/...nh-0-180.png?18 .

The UKMO at 144 hours looks better still, with the PV definitely further east http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?08-18 while the GEM has the real deal, with a stronger Greenland high forcing the cold way to go just one way - south http://91.121.94.83/...gemnh-0-204.png .

So where do the ensembles stand? http://91.121.94.83/...21-1-180.png?18

Well, generally the pattern is further east than on most of the operationals.

http://91.121.94.83/...21-1-180.png?18

LS

edit: I also find this interesting http://www.cpc.ncep....0analog.off.gif

The analogues for the 6-10 day forecast include the 1st March 2005 and the 1978 west country/east Scotland (I believe the one in the highlands was in January) blizzard.

The flow is also generally northeasterly also.

edit number 2: GP and Chiono pretty much confirm these thoughts on the High being currently modelled too far west, the atlantic coming back too fast and also, surprisingly enough, the 1978 analogue cropping up!

Like I read their minds or something

Ok, night all, enjoy the continuation of the slightly/moderately colder than average weather! Remember, the more bland the weather is now in Kyle of Lochalsh the snowier the rest of February will be!

LS

Edited February 8, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[Gilly]

Interesting that many on this forum are born on the first three months of the year!!! Wonder does this fact have some connection with the interest in weather over the winter months?

Thanks for keeping us undated LS........we have become dependent onyour rational updates from you, which have proven to be pretty good.

[scott_anthony_glasgow]

Hi all interesting times ahead, some absolutely mental looking charts in the gfs at T+250 widespread blizzards across most of Scotland shame its in FI, time will tell hoping for another special event.

Although ideally would like it to be widespread blizzards then snow hangs around for a week then a nice warm spring as the longevity of the last cold spell was just so harsh even myself who loves the cold grew tired of it!Cheers

Scott

[Guest]

Anything changed from yesterday? No. Hmmmm. It's already feeling like it's been a long week of high pressure and we're only at the start of it....

We didn't even manage a frost overnight.

Edit: Just looked at the radar and there may well be a few excited bunnies over on the eastern side of the country :) Although not, perhaps, in east central, sorry guys

Edited February 9, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Cheggers]

Anything changed from yesterday? No. Hmmmm. It's already feeling like it's been a long week of high pressure and we're only at the start of it....

We didn't even manage a frost overnight.

Edit: Just looked at the radar and there may well be a few excited bunnies over on the eastern side of the country :) Although not, perhaps, in east central, sorry guys

Ditto, left home at 6 and it was still 2C and was forecast -1

Currently sitting in my car admiring the snow caps alongside Loch Lomond

Edited February 9, 2010 by Cheggers

[LadyPakal]

Interesting that many on this forum are born on the first three months of the year!!! Wonder does this fact have some connection with the interest in weather over the winter months?

I was born October '65 - what was the winter of '65 like, anyone now?

Just noticed, my DP is finally non-positive and temp is 1 so bring on the snow!

Edited February 9, 2010 by LadyPakal

[Northernlights]

Currently 1c here no wind and partially overcast This weather will suit me fine this week as I managed to buy a replacement calf frorm one of the few remaining dairy farms so will spend a lot of time outside with the cow in the cattle race and me holding the calf until it learns to drink from her.The snow can wait until next week .Still some large patches of unconsolidated snow in the woods bordering the farm so my predictions for some snow from December remaining in March look safe so far.Fields are still pretty wet so no landwork probably until March.

[GraemeB]

Edit: Just looked at the radar and there may well be a few excited bunnies over on the eastern side of the country :) Although not, perhaps, in east central, sorry guys

Yay...

Ah...

Boo...

[Snooz]

Morning,

Temp +0.5 DP 0, small covering of snow overnight, and at the minute it is very dark & snowing heavily

The original snow patches made it through yesterday too, so no break in the cover.. I really wasn't expecting this this far north, love surprise snow!

Hows it going in Dundee/Fife/Edinburgh?

[blitzen]

Morning,

Temp +0.5 DP 0, small covering of snow overnight, and at the minute it is very dark & snowing heavily

The original snow patches made it through yesterday too, so no break in the cover.. I really wasn't expecting this this far north, love surprise snow!

Hows it going in Dundee/Fife/Edinburgh?

Morning.

Temp 0.6 Dew point -4 with a N wind. Crystal clear here with iced puddles (no frost). Nice to hear you have snow. Been looking at the models and if they stick to their predictions, we could be in the firing line for some fun and games next week!

[blitzen]

I suspect that LS has been pushed for time this morning as he usually updates before leaving for school. Poor guy, he is up to all hours keeping us lot informed! From what I can deduce from the models this morning (ahem) is that the so called easterly has been a very watered down affair for most of the country. Which appears to be the norm this year. However, looking to the north, it does look as if there is plenty of action up there for us to be going on with. Looks as if the high is going to sod off to Greenland starting this weekend allowing for a much more active system to drop down from the north. I can't believe I am hoping for this, as northerlies don't produce for here. By the look of it tho' there would be a lot more action involved, and the predicted northerlies do seem to keep their potency. So, after this weekend, it does look as if it will be game on for something a bit more interesting next week. LS will correct me if I'm wrong tho'

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Few light showers making it here. Nothing to write home about, but nice to see. 0.7 C after a little frost.

Showers certainly look to have pepped up a bit compared to yesterday.

[blitzen]

Looking good. Hope the 06z is similar.

Edited February 9, 2010 by Blitzen

[Guest]

Morning.

Temp 0.6 Dew point -4 with a N wind. Crystal clear here with iced puddles (no frost). Nice to hear you have snow. Been looking at the models and if they stick to their predictions, we could be in the firing line for some fun and games next week!

It could be a long wait though. I always used to think that having dry settled weather would be a nice change from constant wind and rain, but it isn't

Edit: Although maybe if the sun stays out I will be converted

Edited February 9, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Stuart]

Few light showers making it here. Nothing to write home about, but nice to see. 0.7 C after a little frost.

Showers certainly look to have pepped up a bit compared to yesterday.

As i look out the Window there none here

[LadyPakal]

Some overnight snow/sleet frozen on car windscreens this morning. As I watched the ice was visibly forming on my impromptu birdbath.

Some of the cars coming into Aberdeen from inland had snow (1cm or so) on them.