Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Virtual Chases 2010


Paul Sherman

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Cell in Mississippi is really cranking up. Nice hook, nice SRV Couplet. HEading towards Canton, MS. (Not a good day to live in a town call Canton... Canton, TX was just under a Tor warning also!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

MS Storm

post-1731-12640316030428_thumb.png

Natchitoches Storm

post-1731-12640317488428_thumb.png

Edited by Gorky
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
JAN 20 18:19:00

TORNADO

2 MI N CANTON

VAN ZANT CTY

TX

TRAINED SPOTTER

POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AT I-20 AND HWY 19 NORTH OF CANTON. POWER LINES & DEBRIS ARE ON INTERSTATE. BUILDINGS ALSO REPORTED DAMAGED.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
There have been 5 Tornado Reports Today* | Yesterday | Storms | Hail | Wind

Time (Z) Strength Location County State Lat Lon Comments

2334 UNK 2 W WASKOM HARRISON TX 32.48 -94.1 BELOW

PEOPLE TRAPPED IN HOMES AND BUSINESSES DESTROYED IN THE VICINITY OF MILE MARKER 628 ON I-20. (SHV)

2327 UNK WASKOM HARRISON TX 32.48 -94.06 BELOW

TORNADO REPORTED ON GROUND. TREES DOWN ACROSS INTERSTATE 20. (SHV)

2319 UNK 2 N CANTON VAN ZANDT TX 32.58 -95.87 BELOW

POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AT I-20 AND HWY 19 NORTH OF CANTON. POWER LINES AND DEBRIS ARE ON THE INTERSTATE. BUILDINGS ALSO REPORTEDLY DAMAGED. (FWD)

2215 UNK 10 SE AMITE TANGIPAHOA LA 30.63 -90.39 BELOW

SHERIFFS DEPUTIES VISUALLY TRACKING A TORNADO ON LA 1062 NEAR LORANGER. (LIX)

2055 UNK 1 NW VILLE PLATTE EVANGELINE LA 30.7 -92.29 BELOW

CARS BLOWN INTO A DITCH. (LCH)

http://www.weathermatrix.net/stormmatrix/tornado/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

I'm still around. Just very tired. Listening to that feed you linked :yahoo:

I'm sure the number of tornadoes will be much higher when everything is investigated in the morning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

I'm still around. Just very tired. Listening to that feed you linked :yahoo:

I'm sure the number of tornadoes will be much higher when everything is investigated in the morning.

you're not alone, I should really go to bed.

ShreveportTimes.com is reporting on their Web site that "A tornado has trapped people in their homes and destroyed businesses in the Waskom, Texas, area, according to the National Weather Service in Shreveport. The tornado touched down at 5:34 p.m. in the vicinity of mile marker 628 on Interstate 20 about two miles west of Waskom. Trees also have been downed across I-20, according to a law enforcement report to the Weather Service."
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

There have been 14 Tornado Reports Today :rolleyes:

going to be a interesting StormChase year

Unfortunately this means diddley squat as whats to come for this years tornado season as its usual for the deep south to start getting severe weather from around now but i'm hoping its goin' to be a busy season with most tornadoes around Texas,Oklahoma and Kansas, no chasing over hills and/or through dense trees, probably wont happen that way but no harm in hoping..!!! or and daylight tornadoes would be most welcome too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

Unfortunately this means diddley squat as whats to come for this years tornado season as its usual for the deep south to start getting severe weather from around now but i'm hoping its goin' to be a busy season with most tornadoes around Texas,Oklahoma and Kansas, no chasing over hills and/or through dense trees, probably wont happen that way but no harm in hoping..!!! or and daylight tornadoes would be most welcome too.

yes I know mate,

Im just going on the El Nino Apr/May that's predicted for this Spring,could bring more activity than normal. :rolleyes:

Cookie awesome pic's...now I'am realy getting in the mood!! :unsure:

Edited by dogs32
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Aye Pat, well i hope you see more 'rotation' than an overworked second- hand industrial washing machine...!!!

Although, synoptically el Nino would favour moisture getting thrown into 'Tornado alley' more often than a 'neutral' year there is still no 'real'correlation between an 'el Nino' and increased tornado activity.

I'm goanna predict that NW stormchasing team get an EF5 around Plainview Texas 7-8 May 2010....:unsure: i was gonna put a time too but i think that pushing it a bit...!!!:rolleyes:...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

Aye Pat, well i hope you see more 'rotation' than an overworked second- hand industrial washing machine...!!!

Although, synoptically el Nino would favour moisture getting thrown into 'Tornado alley' more often than a 'neutral' year there is still no 'real'correlation between an 'el Nino' and increased tornado activity.

I'm goanna predict that NW stormchasing team get an EF5 around Plainview Texas 7-8 May 2010....:) i was gonna put a time too but i think that pushing it a bit...!!!:unsure:...

lol....what do you reckon about Tornado Outbreak's(large one's) in one day..

I know this is virtualy impossible to predict with acuracy.

But if you look at the cycle's (if there is one for sure)then they are due for a major outbreak.

Quiet year's are followed sometime's by Out Break's :rolleyes:

Sorry Im obbsessed with Extreme Weather :lol:

edit...dont say May 7th or 8th....thats the time Im flying or sitting in a Hotel Room being Core Punched by a EF5 :help:lol

now that would be Ironic

Edited by dogs32
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

oooooooh Started already! :D Thats my evenings sorted for the next 96 days!

lol..Hi mate....good times ahead...

Possibility it could be like 2003 Outbreak Season..I cant say my source at present but we do have some similarities..

Ramp Time Ahead.

I can see the Smoke coming out of Arron's Ears

edit..PS Cheers Paul for the link...Mr Bruiser's Blog...excellent....Brought it all back :good:

Edited by dogs32
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

lol..Hi mate....good times ahead...

Possibility it could be like 2003 Outbreak Season..I cant say my source at present but we do have some similarities..

Ramp Time Ahead.

I can see the Smoke coming out of Arron's Ears

Although the severe weather started in Kansas/Oklahoma(May 2003) there were a lot of tornadoes in locations not favoured by stormchasers Missouri, Tennessee and up into Illinois and there were no F5 (as they were still called) although there were six F4's and 401 confirmed tornadoes in total . ENSO conditions for 2010 bring a strong El Nino and have a combination of 82-83 and 97-98 characteristics, it is also forecast to exhibit some very unusual features. Very heavy rains to the deep south, serious flooding for Mississippi in particular are also forecast. As far as predicting tornadoes for the up and coming season is impossible at this range (even @ 24hrs can be a nightmare...!!) But will be interesting all the same...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

Although the severe weather started in Kansas/Oklahoma(May 2003) there were a lot of tornadoes in locations not favoured by stormchasers Missouri, Tennessee and up into Illinois and there were no F5 (as they were still called) although there were six F4's and 401 confirmed tornadoes in total . ENSO conditions for 2010 bring a strong El Nino and have a combination of 82-83 and 97-98 characteristics, it is also forecast to exhibit some very unusual features. Very heavy rains to the deep south, serious flooding for Mississippi in particular are also forecast. As far as predicting tornadoes for the up and coming season is impossible at this range (even @ 24hrs can be a nightmare...!!) But will be interesting all the same...

cheers mate for the info..

But you must change your prediction from May7th,8th..

You see Im still in the Hotel :)

Yes a very interesting time ahead, :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

cheers mate for the info..

But you must change your prediction from May7th,8th..

You see Im still in the Hotel :)

Yes a very interesting time ahead, :)

Alright..!! Erm 1st small outbreak May7-8 & 9th, then 11-12th a few storms around Colorado/New Mexico (Just behind Juan Carlos Rodriguez's Burritos and Taco take away deli) then major outbreak N/central Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and possibly Southern Nebraska starting from the 13 running until the 17th May, High risk of damaging EF 3-5 Tornadoes (just open fields and the odd unoccupied barn)....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

Alright..!! Erm 1st small outbreak May7-8 & 9th, then 11-12th a few storms around Colorado/New Mexico (Just behind Juan Carlos Rodriguez's Burritos and Taco take away deli) then major outbreak N/central Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and possibly Southern Nebraska starting from the 13 running until the 17th May, High risk of damaging EF 3-5 Tornadoes (just open fields and the odd unoccupied barn)....

:) .l.ol..nice one...

:) I will be happy if that happen's..

AS John.H would say...Im a Happy Camper

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

day1otlk_1200.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1141 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2010

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN

PLNS NEWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH/LWR OH VLY...

...LWR OH VLY...SERN PLNS...CNTRL GULF COAST...

EXPANSIVE COLD UPR TROUGH OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL EDGE

EWD INTO THE OH VLY AND GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY. EMBEDDED

IMPULSE CROSSING THE SRN ROCKIES WILL EMERGE ON THE SRN PLNS

SATURDAY AFTN...THEN TURN ENE INTO THE LWR OH VLY/MID-SOUTH BY EARLY

SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE LWR LVLS...CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER NERN

OK DURING THE AFTN WITH THE LOW REACHING THE LWR OH VLY BY 12Z

SUNDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD FROM OK/E TX

DURING THE AFTN INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES LATER

SATURDAY NIGHT.

A MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS WAS BEING TRANSPORTED NWD THROUGH CNTRL/E

TX EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ON INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE

APPROACHING IMPULSE. ALTHOUGH 00Z/23 SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED A SHALLOW

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. BY

EVENING...MID 50S DEW POINTS WILL BE COMMON AS FAR N AS THE RED RVR

VLY AND CNTRL AR...RANGING UP TO THE LWR/MID 60S ALONG THE UPR TX

COAST AND CNTRL LA. FCST LAPSE RATES...INITIALLY POOR...WILL

IMPROVE WITH TIME AS THE UPR TROUGH CONTINUES EWD...RESULTING IN A

LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG.

AS EXIT REGION OF A 110+ KT MID-LEVEL JET PUNCHES NEWD INTO NCNTRL

TX/SCNTRL OK...SFC-BASED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NW EDGE OF

THE INSTABILITY AXIS AROUND SUNSET...PROBABLY NEAR/NE OF DALLAS.

ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND ENE INTO SERN OK AND WRN AR DURING THE EVENING.

STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND IMPROVING LAPSE RATES WILL INITIALLY BE

FAVORABLE FOR ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS.

MID-LATE EVENING SURGE OF LWR 60S SFC DEW POINTS INTO ABOUT THE SERN

1/2 OF AR WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN RISKS FOR SFC-BASED STORMS...POSSIBLY

SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.

AS THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ENE...EVOLUTION INTO

FORCED LINE SEGMENTS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WHEN

THE UPR TROUGH GOES NEGATIVE-TILT AND THE SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET

ACCELERATES TO OVER 70 KTS. EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS COULD RESULT IN

SPORADIC DMGG WINDS AS FAR N AS THE LWR OH VLY...THOUGH THE MAJORITY

OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED.

MEANWHILE...AS SRN FRINGE OF THE UPR TROUGH SKIRTS ACROSS THE DEEP

SOUTH VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BANDS OF STORMS SHOULD

EVOLVE/DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL

GULF COAST STATES. VERY STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL JET CORE/SHEAR AND

IMPROVING SFC MOISTURE WILL LIKELY FOSTER A COUPLE OF STRONGER

STORMS WITH PERHAPS DMGG WIND GUSTS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

day3prob_0830.gif

SPC AC 260725

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0125 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2010

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...

...SRN PLAINS...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NRN MEXICO THURSDAY

AS A MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MID-LEVEL FLOW AND

LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS CNTRL AND SOUTH TX DURING

THE DAY WITH CONVECTION SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE

ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH COULD ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SQUALL-LINE BY THURSDAY EVENING IN CNTRL TX REACHING THE TX COASTAL

PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z TO 03Z THURSDAY EVENING IN THE TX

HILL COUNTRY SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F...0-6 KM SHEAR OF

60-75 KT AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1200 J/KG. IN ADDITION...MODEL

FORECASTS SHOW A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NEWD

INTO CNTRL TX AS THE CORE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES DURING THE

EARLY EVENING. THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT HAIL WITH

ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR WITH INTENSE SHORT-LINE

SEGMENTS. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW 35 TO 40 KT OF FLOW AT 1 KM

SUGGESTING A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE WIND

DAMAGE THREAT COULD INCREASE DURING THE EVENING IF A SQUALL-LINE

ORGANIZES...MOVING SEWD INTO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS

THE TX COASTAL PLAINS. MODEL FORECASTS MOVE THE STRONGER STORMS

ACROSS SE TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHERE A MARGINAL SEVERE

THREAT WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES.. 01/26/2010

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

day1probotlk_2000_hail.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_2000_hail.gif

day1otlk_2000.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0247 PM CST THU JAN 28 2010

VALID 282041Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT

OVER PARTS OF TX...

AMENDED FOR ADDITION OF CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK TO THE DALLAS/FORT

WORTH METROPLEX

...N-CNTRL TX...

SEVERAL REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WITH

ONGOING...BOWING MCS APPROACHING THE METROPLEX. WHILE BOUNDARY

LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE...IT APPEARS THAT A

SUFFICIENT NEGATIVE BUOYANCY IS BEING GENERATED BY

EMBEDDED...SMALLER-SCALE BOWS AND LEWPS SUCH THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING

WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH MCS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

...CNTRL/SRN TX...

A BOWING MCS HAS EVOLVED TODAY OVER PARTS OF W-CNTRL TX WITH

BACKBUILDING/REGENERATIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG SWRN

EXTENSION OF SYSTEM N/NW OF DRT. RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE

IMAGERY SHOW A GRADUAL EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EDWARDS

PLATEAU AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR LOCALLY

STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING. AT THE SAME TIME...40-50 KT SELY LLJ IS

MAINTAINING THE INFLUX OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INTO REGION WITH

DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT

FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING

1000-1500 J/KG PER 18Z RUC GUIDANCE.

BOWING...NRN EXTENSION OF ONGOING TSTM BAND SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN

WHILE MOVING EWD INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE

E OF I-35. FARTHER S/SW...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD

FRONT OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION WILL LIKELY POSE A GREATER

AND/OR LONGER-LIVED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HERE...THE

MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL COEXIST WITH A KINEMATIC

ENVIRONMENT FEATURING PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST

1-2 KM AGL AND 50-60 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. AS SUCH...THE

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS IN ADDITION TO BOWING LINE

SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL /POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT/ AND

A TORNADO OR TWO.

ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS TONIGHT WITH A PREFERRED

SEWD SYSTEM PROPAGATION/MOVEMENT INTO LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS IN

PLACE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

Edited by dogs32
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...