2010

[dogs32]

Return of El Niño Should Increase Higher Chances of Severe Weather

El Niño conditions are forecast with cooler than normal temperatures and increased chance of severe weather and tornadoes across much of the United States.

Forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) have called for an El Niño watch in their latest issued ENSO Diagnostic Discussion.

The return of El Niño - an oceanic phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years and causes worldwide changes in climate patterns - should help keep winter temperatures in Florida below normal while increasing the chances for severe storms, including tornadoes.

Climatology is basically about looking at what has happened historically based on a given set of conditions, it doesn't however mean that is what exactly will happen." Barnes said.

Barnes also operates a tornado chasing tour service in Tornado Alley and says his customers are pretty weather savvy.

"A lot of my regular customers have called and asked about an increased tornado potential during our 2010 storm chase season." Said Barnes. "During the last El Niño in 2003, we had a very strong storm season in May and June across Tornado Alley. There was a prolific tornado outbreak that started on May 4th and most of Tornado Alley experienced a higher frequency of tornadoes than was climatologically normal for the next several weeks. Most of June also had a higher frequency of tornadoes than normal as well."

Barnes stated that there is no reason why another higher than normal tornado season across Tornado Alley wouldn't be the case for 2010. "At this point and time, we can't rule it out."

that snow has to go somewhere

Edited January 11, 2010 by dogs32

[Paul Sherman]

LOL

2003 Was THE BEST Tornado Season ever, with 1,854 Tornadoes during the year, 3 Notable Outbreaks during May and 1 in June. Think May and June totalled 923 Tornadoes that year :wacko:

Oh Sheeeeeeeetttt We got Cows!

[Cookie]

i hope guys do and don't a good season, if u get a good one and im on the sidelines. :wacko: I will not be happy.

[dogs32]

Paul it's going to happen!! im convinced.

There's going to be some beast's that's why I couldn't give up going.

Im so convinced I'm gutted about the 4th tour or 1st...Cant remember which is free.

You know when you know...Keep having ..

these dream's of this incredible frightening F4/F5

WITH INCREDIBLE STRUCTURE..lol

Honest..

your one lucky person to be out there that long :wacko:

edit,,Cookie....should go mate...

yes it can be scary... but you only live once mate...

Awesome honest....mindblowing lightning and structure clouds

and a real good laugh with the people...thats a bonus

Edited January 11, 2010 by dogs32

[Cookie]

hopefully 2011 mate, :wacko:

[dogs32]

hopefully 2011 mate,

I hope so mate :wacko:

booking my seat up for next year

there gold dust

Cookie,I did find something that might interest you about Hurricane's will send you the link tomorrow as it's on the other computer.

Edited January 11, 2010 by dogs32

[dogs32]

Tom-- what a character

Edited January 12, 2010 by dogs32

[Cookie]

I hope so mate

booking my seat up for next year

there gold dust

Cookie,I did find something that might interest you about Hurricane's will send you the link tomorrow as it's on the other computer.

cool, look forward to getting it

[dogs32]

Latest trend update...

Gasp!!!

early days(calm before the Storm)

[

UPDATE: A late report has been received. At 445 PM on 27 February, a tornado 15 miles northeast of Taft, California occurred. It was weak, lasted approximately 3 minutes, caused no damage, and was rated EF0. So, instead of no tornadoes in the calendar month, we have had one tornado reported in the US for February 2010.

*******

There were no tornadoes reported in the United States in February 2010. Assuming that no late reports are received, it will be the first time in the National Weather Service’s database that starts in 1950 that there has been a February without a tornado. If we include Tom Grazulis’s database of F2 and stronger tornadoes, the last time it’s possible there wasn’t a February tornado was 1947. The last tornado reported in the US was on 24 January, in north-central Tennessee. The last calendar month without a tornado was January 2003.

However, there have been big exceptions. Most notably, in 2003, we started out with no tornadoes in the first 45 days of the year. Even as late as 29 April, it was the slowest start in the database (after adjusting for report inflation, as discussed here.) By the 11th of May, however, 2003 was well above normal following a remarkably active week. So, even though it’s been a slow start to the season, people still need to be aware of the threats that may happen later on.

********

OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) -- Forecasters say a wetter-than-usual winter and a jet stream dipping deep into Tornado Alley could lead to an active spring for tornadoes.

The 2010 tornado season has had a slow start with one twister reported -- in California -- in February. A strong twister ripped through Hammon in western Oklahoma Monday night, destroying five homes.

Greg Carbin of the Storm Prediction Center in Norman said Tuesday there will be an uptick in thunderstorm activity as spring approaches and the Southern Plains states warm up.

Dr. Harold Brooks of the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman says Monday's tornado does not necessarily mean the season will be more active, but that more tornados are possible in the coming weeks if the same

Bottom line...don't let the winter weather we've seen lull you to sleep in thinking this will be a quiet spring. It only takes one storm for this to be an active & potentially dangerous spring severe weather season.

Edited March 25, 2010 by dogs32

[Paul Sherman]

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showpost.php?p=263742&postcount=49

1st 15 Days of April looking very active if the Models continue to verify. With a Big Blocking High over the Entire East then retreating to the SE Near Florida, this will allow Moisture to stream up from the GOM & Attendant Troughs coming off the Pacific will keep the Pattern locked in for Re-Loaded Chase Days.

Think those Figures may start to bump up a tad - As they should seeing as we are into April next week and the start of Storm Chase Season proper (Apr-Jun)

Paul S

[Cookie]

sounds good to me.

some virtual chaseing before, watching you guys do it for real.

A few warnings out 2nite

[dogs32]

latest...

Future storm chaser awaits 'the rush

FAIRWAY, Kan. -- The Storm Track 5 Weather Team is focusing its sights on the upcoming severe weather season and what it will mean to the viewers in the KCTV5 area and those following along at KCTV5.com.

This season will be similar to 2003 and 2007, when it was really active across the Southern Plains and relatively early in the season. Those two years saw a fair share of tornadoes across the region.

On May 4, 2003, the Kansas City area was hit with a major outbreak of tornadoes. Four twisters struck in the immediate metro area. One touched down on the grounds of Fort Leavenworth, while Kansas City, Kan., was hit by another tornado.

Exactly four years ago to the day after the Kansas City outbreak, the town of Greensburg, Kan., was leveled by a devastating EF-5 tornado. It was the strongest tornado touchdown in the United States in eight years

he wild winter weather was caused, in part, by El Nino. El Niño is the warming of the ocean waters in the Pacific that causes the jet stream, or the storm track, to strengthen across the southern United States.

"Currently we are actually in a moderately strong El Niño and that's expected to weaken slightly over the next couple of months," said meteorologist Greg Postel.

The United States has had two other El Niño episodes over the past decade, with our current El Niño being the strongest. The severe weather season this spring is forecast to be similar to the spring of 2003 and 2007, as they all came off of an El Niño winter.

An exact correlation between El Niño and tornadoes is unclear. However, based on past El Nino years, the frequency of strong to violent tornadoes has slightly increased coming off an El Nino winter.

Of course, this doesn't mean that the Kansas City area will be directly affected, however. A slightly more active tornado season than 2009 is forecasted for the metro, along with an active severe weather season across the Southern Plains.

Tornado Season and VORTEX2

Usually the South sees what little activity that comes this early in the year, but initial forecasts predict a busy year for storm chasers.

Edited March 29, 2010 by dogs32

[Paul Sherman]

With the strongest Storm system of the spring coming along for Friday and then more chances for Severe weather in the first week of April I really think this is the start of an active April coming up.

An even bolder guestimate from me I reckon there will be between 225-275 Tornadoes across the US In April 2010!

Paul S

[dogs32]

With the strongest Storm system of the spring coming along for Friday and then more chances for Severe weather in the first week of April I really think this is the start of an active April coming up.

An even bolder guestimate from me I reckon there will be between 225-275 Tornadoes across the US In April 2010!

Paul S

yes getting t he same feeling out there..They are expecting it to explode in to action...Going to be very active in the end

I have seen more Weather forecaster's opinon's predicting an explosive year than not...

I hope there is some left for me Tour 2/3..lol

Latest Trend Chart

SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAYDALLAS FT

Moisture coming our way thanks to the south winds will arrive Thursday in the form of some low level clouds Thursday morning. So we will actually start off with mostly cloudy skies Thursday morning and then those clouds will break apart as the day progresses. Temperatures will warm to near 80.

At Last things starting to warm up..

Edited March 30, 2010 by dogs32

[dogs32]

Is Tornado Alley moving east?

On the eve of what could be the region’s first significant severe outbreak of the storm season, the nation’s largest private weather forecasting company says Tornado Alley may move east.

This spring, AccuWeather.com meteorologists expect tornado activity will increase farther east into the Midwest instead of the traditional spring tornado swath, which consists of parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota.

“Tornado season usually begins in March, but this year, there has been a lack of tornadoes. A total of 64 tornadoes have occurred as of March 29. On average, 225 tornadoes occur by this date,” AccuWeather.com said in a release to media.

The company attributes the low number of twisters to a cooler-than-normal Gulf of Mexico, a jet stream displaced farther south than normal due to the El Niño, and persistent cool weather in the Plains and South.

“The Midwest appears particularly primed for additional tornado outbreaks this year rather than the typical Tornado Alley states because of the predicted storm track and the proximity of gulf moisture should be present by late April, the company said.

AccuWeather.com analyzed tornado reports dating back to 1950 from the Storm Prediction Center during April, May and June of 1958, 1966, 1978, 1988, 1993, 1995 and 2003, the most recent years categorized as El Niño events.

“Two patterns emerged from this information: many states had fewer tornadoes reported early in severe weather season than normal, and then higher totals emerged in the following months for some states,” the company’s release said. “In April, the southern tier of states, including Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida, reported an increased number of tornadoes than they typically see. Meanwhile, nearly all states to the north of that line saw fewer twisters in El Niño years.”

But AccuWeather.com said severe weather often returned “with a vengeance” in the states lining the Mississippi River and many Southern states in May.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center shies away from long term predictions on severe storms or tornadoes, preferring to make seasonal forecasts based

solely on precipitation and temperature. Its latest assessment is that North Texas and southern Oklahoma will see above normal precipitation through April and a slightly cooler spring than normal with average rainfall.

“I don’t put a lot of stock into it,” said Dr. Harold Brooks of seasonal or long term predictions of severe thunderstorms or tornadoes. Brooks is a researcher with the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Okla.

He said there is little evidence of El Niño years having a significant effect on severe or tornadic weather in the U.S.

“It’s very slight — a few percentage points at most,” he said.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman predicts North Texas could see its first threat of tornadoes this season today.

“The development of thunderstorms with damaging wind, large hail and tornadoes are all possible,” SPC said in an outlook discussion on its Web site Wednesday. The center said it was too early on Wednesday to predict exactly where or what time those storms were likely to occur.

The region has a chance of thunderstorms this morning, but they are less likely to be severe than the storms that could develop later today.

[dogs32]

Latest

and still VERY positive for this year..

ACTIVE TORNADO SEASON PREDICTED

Weather forecasters with the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center say that the United States will experience a very active tornado season this year.

Severe storm forecasters say that there may be more tornadoes this year due to warmer air pushed into the Midwest by El Nino conditions. The warm air will clash with cooler air coming from the North, producing severe storms.

latest trend chart..(83)

Edited April 9, 2010 by dogs32

[dogs32]

Latest News Forecast's

The frequency of tornadoes will increase as the El Niño begins to weaken and the Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures warm.

The Midwest appears particularly primed for additional tornado outbreaks this year rather than the typical Tornado Alley states because of the predicted storm track and the proximity of Gulf moisture should be present by late April.

AccuWeather.com analyzed tornado reports dating back to 1950 from the Storm Prediction Center during April, May and June of 1958, 1966, 1978, 1988, 1993, 1995 and 2003, the most recent years categorized as El Niño events.

Two patterns emerged from this information: many states had fewer tornadoes reported early in severe weather season than normal, and then higher totals emerged in the following months for some states.

In April, the southern tier of states, including Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida, reported an increased number of tornadoes than they typically see. Meanwhile, nearly all states to the north of that line saw fewer twisters in El Niño years.

However, the severe weather often returned with a vengeance in the states lining the Mississippi River and many Southern states in May, as a much higher-than-normal amount of tornado reports occurred in those years.

Once June arrives, tornado activity begins to normalize overall across the country. The one exception is South Dakota, which has seen nearly double the amount of twisters in June El Niño years than others.

Edited April 12, 2010 by dogs32

[dogs32]

Latest Trend 93

The main feeling out there is even though this as been a slow start to tornado season the main event is yet to to happen....

With most precition's ranging from late May to June for the main event.

Though Twister's will spawn early May onwards as the Season start's

read a few stories about Kansas and Nebraska going to be espeacially bad this year..

Though take all of this with a pinch of salt,I dont know where these people get there info from...

But most of the news and weather networks ARE not playing down this slow start..In-fact for some reason the opposite in forecasts ..

I take it this is something to do with the Jet pattern's and the Nino effect.

With a warm plume's to eventually migrate northwards from the Gulf later this Spring.

Scientists plan to launch unmanned aerial vehicles over the Great Plains May 1 to June 15 in hopes of getting a better idea of how tornadoes form.

The remote-controlled planes, known as UAVs, will be part of a broad tornado study — VORTEX 2 — that will start its second phase May 1, says Don Burgess, a research scientist with the University of Oklahoma.

The study will take place in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and Missouri, says Keli Tarp, a spokeswoman with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Weather Partners in Norman, Okla.

William M. Welch, USA TODAY

Weather forecasters say the wetter-than-usual El Niño winter that has blasted much of the United States could be followed by an active tornado season.

Greg Forbes, severe weather expert at The Weather Channel, said Tuesday that comparable past winters suggest there could be an above-average number of tornadoes this year. "The average was 9% more tornadoes than a typical year," he said.

El Niño is a seasonal weather pattern in which warm equatorial winds that periodically push toward the West Coast send moist air to the nation's interior.

Edited April 15, 2010 by dogs32

[jimbo36]

Sorry to disappoint guys but the storm / tornado forecast here in the US for next month is low.

April currently 5th lowest on record.

Have high pressure over east and jet stream is way north and no buckling trend forecast to set up as it it should be. Also gulf waters are 5 degrees lower than usual for this time of year, fishing has been poor both on and offshore.

Due to fly back on Saturday to UK, don't rate my chances, as Iceland volcano still erupting and jet stream still pushing it UK wards until Tuesday when it flattens out.

Good luck on the storm chase, will maybe join you forthe 2011 season.

Jimbo

[dogs32]

Hi mate,

I know its bad, but Im just reporting on the news agencies and weather feeds of there forecasts..

and most are not playing it down...

Like anyone would think that this year is going to be quiet,not according to the Meteorologists out there...

Only time will tell..

On this occasion I stand by what I said in there being a major out break this year.. :unsure:

like 2004? quiet then whole hell let loose..

Paul S...would know what Im on about with dates and info..

that was a similar set up..

the above posts and information are from all different forecasts and predictions....even SPC.

Edited April 15, 2010 by dogs32

[Paul Sherman]

Yeah not concerned in the slightest just yet, looks like 3 days of Possible Severe Weather next week from 22-24th April for starters, also the GooFuS is all over the place at present so NO Model is going to be able to predict what the next month "might" bring.

Sorry to hear your trip did not yield any Storms Jimbo!

Paul S

[kold weather]

El Nino is rapidly decaying and interestingly enough shear profiles are actually slightly below average suggesting the jet isn't quite as strong as you'd expect, probably suggesting that other global factors are over ruling the decaying El nino right at this moment.

The Gulf is recovering at a decent clip right now though it has to be said, the loop current is now decently above average and general waters now only around 1C below average, and that would only take 2-3 weeks of decent conditions to warm to average I'd suggest given how warm SST's are to the SE in the caribbean at the moment...

-ve AO powering up again which may not be a bad thing as it'll shift the jet back southwards, as long as it doesn't adjust too far south and allows the Gulf to continue to warm it may not be a bad thing, however equally if its too strong, then its going to really prevent anything other then cold core set-ups developing...for now it seems like we are just treading on the right side of the fine line looking at the models.

I'm still thinking late May could be very decent, however in May you'd be unlucky not to get at least some good severe thunderstorms fairly often if nothing else.

[Harry]

Well...the more I read in this thread the more I become incredibly pessimistic

[dogs32]

I cant believe you said that Harry!!

This thread is EXTREMELY positive....have you read every post...

would it help if I put the positive predictions in BOLD

of which there are many

if it was negative I wouldnt of made this thread I can assure you.

as I am only biassed on positive forecast's....though saying that most out there are positive..

with a 10-1 in favour of a active season..

2010 tornado season

In the short term, storms will be generated and fueled by the usual tornado trigger — Gulf moisture colliding with storm systems driven by the jet stream.

In a few months, parts of the Plains that had above-normal precipitation during the winter could see storms fueled by the moisture stored within plants and the ground. "Transpiration is usually a component later in the springtime. We won't have that for a little while longer," Carbin said.

Monday's twister occurred when a low-pressure system in the Pacific Northwest kicked a strong storm system out of the Rocky Mountains and into the southern Plains. "There are all sorts of connections," Carbin said. "The atmosphere is a dynamic thing. You can't really pin it down to one descriptor."

The slow start to the season is no sign that later storms will be stronger, weaker or non-existent.

"That pretty much tells us nothing," said Harold Brooks, a research meteorologist at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman.

(Take note of the people making these prediction's...People in the know how)

Brooks said that if the weather conditions that caused the Hammon storm — abundant moisture at the surface and a low pressure system in Northwest knocking the jet stream into Tornado Alley — are still in place when the warm weather arrives, then the upcoming tornado season might be ferocious.

Harold Brooks

National Severe Storms Laboratory ,Ok,Norman

I rest my case...

All these posts are from MANY different sources!!

and majority are going for an active season...

Im more worried about the volcano than a dead dog Season out t here

Edited April 16, 2010 by dogs32

[Harry]

Sorry Pat

I should have been a bit clearer. A lot of what is being said about an active season are pointing towards later during the Storm Chase period, with indications appearing to suggest much of the better chasing activity could occur later in to May and towards June.

I leave on Tour 1 in a week and a half, and all I seemed to be reading the recent posts were 'quiet' 'quiet' 'quiet'

Sorry to disappoint guys but the storm / tornado forecast here in the US for next month is low.

With most precition's ranging from late May to June for the main event.

I suppose I'm concerned that I won't see that much

Still, you never know, and I maintain the right to utilise beginners luck, along with luck of the Irish