494 replies to this topic

[Thundery wintry showers]

Also, in my UK winter snowiness classification (where individual snow events are ranked from 1 to 5 in terms of severity and distribution), it will only take 4 points' worth of future snow events to surpass last winter's total. Something tells me that the individual events of Thursday/Friday and Saturday/Sunday are going to produce at least that, even going by the most conservative estimates- while a total of 6-8 is not out of the question. Last winter was very close to the long-term average for snow, averaged over the UK as a whole.

Considering that until last year, many people were wondering if we'd ever see a winter as snowy as the twentieth century average again, to more or less reach it by 10 January is pretty astonishing. I will be very interested to see how high the 2009/10 season gets in the overall rankings- if it reaches the 50s it will be up there with the likes of 1950/51 and 1954/55 and indeed 1962/63 for snowiness.

The statistic for the first third of January is also astonishing. What's particularly notable is that these synoptics usually don't develop and persist until later in the season, so we're getting sustained cold at a time of the season when very few past winters have had it. Across Scotland, the spell may be closer to record-breaking than over England and Wales, because even when the Atlantic came in on Boxing Day most of Scotland remained cold and snowy.

[Snowyowl9]

trickydicky, on 06 January 2010 - 16:46 , said:

This winter is way off 47 and 63 because we're only on January 6th! If it stays like this for 2 more months then we are in contention! I can't remember the early 80's but what this winter has missed that they had is extreme nightime low temperatures, as in -20 widely across Scotland and in a few prone places in England and Wales. This weekend might sort that out though. From what I gather the 80's spells were fairly intense but shortlived affairs (the longest being 81/82 which we have equaled in terms of length nearly), if we get some -20's on the board then I think we can say we have beaten them - next in line I suppose would be 39/40 and 78/79? Fingers crossed, wood touched.

January 1985 was a 3 week cold snowy spell but less snow to now and it was all powdery.
My favourite winter month will always be february 1985 for that intense blizzard 10inches, followed by easterly gales sunshine and ground blizzards no snow showers after just drifting for a week to 10 days of the same snowcover.

[Mr_Data]

For me, the only real way to compare past winters is using a winter index.

Manchester Winter Index = 10 x [(number of days with falling sleet/snow)+(number of days with lying snow at 9am)+(number of days with minima of 0C or less)] divided by the mean winter maximum.

It has rocketed right up over recent days but can fall back due to the winter mean maximum which will rise in value when we get milder days. Even so, I can't it see it being sub 50 by winter's end.


Manchester winter indices from 1973-74 to 2008-09


1978-79: 262
1985-86: 159
1981-82: 149
1976-77: 141
1984-85: 140
1995-96: 135
1990-91: 126
2008-09: 105
1986-87: 100
1977-78: 90
1980-81: 90
1982-83: 85
2009-10: 85 up to 5th January
1983-84: 82
1993-94: 78
2000-01: 77
1996-97: 72
1979-80: 66
2005-06: 59
2001-02: 50
2003-04: 50
1998-99: 47
2004-05: 47
1994-95: 45
2002-03: 44
1992-93: 43
1999-00: 42
1975-76: 41
1991-92: 40
1987-88: 37
2007-08: 37
1973-74: 30
1974-75: 26
1989-90: 26
1997-98: 25
2006-07: 21
1988-89: 20

[Thundery wintry showers]

I can see that by your index for Manchester, too, it won't be long before 2008/09 gets overtaken. It'll be interesting to see if it can stay ahead once it gets there!

[damianslaw]

Its far too early to be giving comment on whether this winter will go down as historic, we have a good 10 days to go until the half way mark - and longer still if like me you class the first half of March as winter.

What I will say is so far it has been a notably cold and snowy winter, probably the snowiest in Scotland and N England since winter 81/82 but not quite as cold so far as winter 95/96 - admittedly the cold broke down at the start of Jan but returned by the 21st or indeed 96/97 - people are forgetting how cold the first 6 weeks of winter 96/97 were - much colder overall than what we have seen this winter - guess its because we didn't see much snow - we should really be comparing statistics to 96/97 not 81/82.

What has been very notable so far is how almost the entire country as seen at least one proper dumping of snow, this is fairly unusual for so early in the season - its been very pleasing to see different areas getting ther share at different times. Here in the South Lakes we probably saw our deepest dec snowfall since dec 81, beating dec 2000 by some margin, however, so far this month we have only seen a couple of inches fall - had that low developed over SW Scotland instead of just to the south of us yesterday then we would have seen much bigger amounts. Most sheltered low lying ground has been snow covered since the 17th Dec, and we have not seen maxima more than 5 degrees since I believe the 11th Dec, and we must be getting close to having recorded nearly 10 ice days so far which will definately be breached by the weekend, the next 5 days look like being ice days here.

[kold weather]

96-97 was cold for the first half thats for sure, but the first half of this winter will very likely come in lower then that, how cold I'm not totaly sure yet but looking at the data currently it'll probably be in the top 10 coldest first half to winter since 1900...

Indeed this will probably knocking on the door of the top 5 soon if it keeps banking in negative days...

96-97 was at 2.25C roughly for the first half of that winter...we are already at 2.53C and thats with another week and a bit of strong cooling to occur.

A more likely target is 76-77 which had a surprisingly cold start as well.

Edited by kold weather, 07 January 2010 - 00:24 .

[Mr_Data]

Manchester hasn't recorded a double digit maximum since 9th December. Using the 10th of December as a starting point, even the winter of 1981-82, Manchester managed to record 3 double digit maxima within the period of 10th December- to the current date.



1978-79: 4

2001-02: 1

1996-97: 2

Edited by Mr_Data, 07 January 2010 - 07:51 .

[high ground birmingham]

With lows of -17C in Benson, -14C around the Manchester area and -9.5C here in the Birmingham area, we also have the low temps people!! Expect a widespread ice day for the UK...

Tonight I think we could even see it colder especially due to the low maxes today. Is a -20C possible for England tonight? We shall see

[Roger J Smith]

If it moderates next week and fails to get really cold or snowy again, then it will fade into the chase pack of significant but not historic winters. I think to get to "historic" levels it would need to go sub-2.0 for January, perhaps one or two more snowfalls fairly extensively, possibly a sub- -20 C reading in England, and nothing too outrageously mild in February. If it establishes all of those marks it would edge into historic territory without necessarily producing a sub 1.0 month. If February is as wintry as the first two months, then definitely historic.

They're in about the same mindset in the eastern U.S. so far; the winter has laid a foundation and it all depends on the second half now.

Around here, we are still waiting for winter (at sea level), I have seen one measly snowfall of about two inches that promptly melted. Even by our rather benign standards, this is a historic winter in the other direction.

[Stu_London]

If we were to cut off the winter as of now then I would place this winter about 6th in my lifetime behind

78/79
85/86
86/87
81/82
90/91

Obviously the cold spell has some way to run and there may be other severe spells to take into account between now and the end of winter. Based on what the models are saying, with what is likely to come over the next week would probably take us past 90/91 and onto a par with 81/82 (which matches quite well at present).

My judgement is also affected by my location. I have been in London since 1992, but was in the North east for a period before that. I suspect 1995/1996 may have figured had I been somewhere North of yorkshire during that period.

[Mr_Data]

Its the severest January wintry spell, IMO since 1982, 1985 or 1987 depending on your location.

One or two may argue even 1996 or 1997 or even 1979

Edited by Mr_Data, 07 January 2010 - 09:31 .

[stewfox]

trickydicky, on 06 January 2010 - 16:46 , said:

This winter is way off 47 and 63 because we're only on January 6th! If it stays like this for 2 more months then we are in contention! I can't remember the early 80's but what this winter has missed that they had is extreme nightime low temperatures, as in -20 widely across Scotland and in a few prone places in England and Wales. This weekend might sort that out though. From what I gather the 80's spells were fairly intense but shortlived affairs (the longest being 81/82 which we have equaled in terms of length nearly), if we get some -20's on the board then I think we can say we have beaten them - next in line I suppose would be 39/40 and 78/79? Fingers crossed, wood touched.

We already had -18c around here last night and -20 is forcast for some areas in the next few days. A very wide area recorded -10 or below last night and thats likely to be repeated. Its still only -14c in Manchester. That compares to any winter. So we are getting there.
At the moment for me this is Jan 82 , i cant see it getting above -5c here today. Currently -9c here in Bicester . A bit of cloud and we would be there + a foot of snow

Duration yes a few more weeks required

[mozza81]

Based on the comments it seems the Midlands has been one of the least affected areas in terms of snowfall / extreme cold to date.

Fairly Cold December (coldest since 95-96) and temps were exceptionally cold last night but there have been several winters in the last 25 years more severe in the West Midlands areas........snowfall/wind/temps.

Compared to what others have told me - this is NOWHERE near as severe as 47,63 or 81 for this area but as a UK whole I suppose it could be a different story as its very widespread this year.......87/91/95 I can also remember being harser in this region.

Its rare the south coast ever gets snow!

[Sussexwalker]

trickydicky, on 06 January 2010 - 16:46 , said:

This winter is way off 47 and 63 because we're only on January 6th! If it stays like this for 2 more months then we are in contention! I can't remember the early 80's but what this winter has missed that they had is extreme nightime low temperatures, as in -20 widely across Scotland and in a few prone places in England and Wales. This weekend might sort that out though. From what I gather the 80's spells were fairly intense but shortlived affairs (the longest being 81/82 which we have equaled in terms of length nearly), if we get some -20's on the board then I think we can say we have beaten them - next in line I suppose would be 39/40 and 78/79? Fingers crossed, wood touched.

Entirely agree with you.

I noticed one of the met presenters yesterday quoting that Manchester may have had its lowest ever temperature last night! On record that may be but I'd like to know the temperatures in the infamous winters of 1640 to 1680. If only.

[Yellowbelly]

Only time and its judgement will tell if this is to be an historic winter.
But for most of the under 20's on this site, this spell, and perhaps this winter as a whole, will be a benchmark at the very least. I've followed the development of Netweather from before its formation by contributors to the old BBC board, and this is the cold and snow that most wished for, prayed for, and tried to read into the most unpromising models over the last 7 or so years.
I remember 1963, it was exceptional, and I don't expect to live through another like it. But I'll also admit that I did not expect to see again a spell like the one we have now.

[Nick L]

I think 2009/10 will be known as the winter that proved the doubters wrong, that's for sure. Those that seemed convinced it was somehow impossible to get a severe cold spell again, it was an absurd suggestion that has now been smashed into pieces. Long may it continue.

[Jackone]

At 9am tomorrow, it will surely be the 7th Successive Met Office Snow day, the 11th of the winter so far. Admittedly npt that much snow but still a thick blanket covering the 50% rule.

In the preceding 11 winters, there was a total of 2 Met Office Snow Days in January.

So by any stretch, a very snowy winter so far, and yet there not been a huge snowfall, of more than 4 inches at any time this winter here. It has also been very cold with some severe icing over locals water courses.

If we could more snow from Sunday and Monday event or from fronts from the South West, to give at least a period of heavy lying snow, this would make this a truly memorable winter, as opposed to a very good one.

[damianslaw]

Thanks Mr Data for the following stats which my reckoning would probably put the CET for winter 96/97 at this stage somewhere near the 2 degree mark, colder than this winter, why the BBC are saying most prolonged cold since 81/82 I don't know.-

96-97 was at 2.25C roughly for the first half of that winter...we are already at 2.53C and thats with another week and a bit of strong cooling to occur.

As to comparisons in general to winters since 91/82, dec 95 beats anything so far that this winter has delivered here in Cumbria in terms of severe cold, but granted in terms of snow we haven't been bettered for early winter snowiness since dec 81.

Edited by damianslaw, 07 January 2010 - 22:51 .

[Jamie.]

JACKONE, on 07 January 2010 - 21:22 , said:

If we could more snow from Sunday and Monday event or from fronts from the South West, to give at least a period of heavy lying snow, this would make this a truly memorable winter, as opposed to a very good one.

It would indeed!

For me, the last time I can (vaguely) remember snow like this was '95 or '96.

If we have more snow Sunday into Monday... it would be a Winter to remember. We've had snowfall at some point for the last 3 or so weeks. I can't recall it happening for me.
The usual snow event is Feb/March and then a big thaw in the Afternoon sun.

[Mr_Data]

Manchester winter indices from 1973-74 to 2008-09

(1962-63: 501)

1978-79: 262
1985-86: 159
1981-82: 149
1976-77: 141
1984-85: 140
1995-96: 135
1990-91: 126
2008-09: 105
2009-10: 103 up to 7th January
1986-87: 100
1977-78: 90
1980-81: 90
1982-83: 85
1983-84: 82
1993-94: 78
2000-01: 77
1996-97: 72
1979-80: 66
2005-06: 59
2001-02: 50
2003-04: 50
1998-99: 47
2004-05: 47
1994-95: 45
2002-03: 44
1992-93: 43
1999-00: 42
1975-76: 41
1991-92: 40
1987-88: 37
2007-08: 37
1973-74: 30
1974-75: 26
1989-90: 26
1997-98: 25
2006-07: 21
1988-89: 20