General Model Output Discussion

[fear sneachta]

Hi BFTP

These are very serious times for very serious synoptics.

Because they are almost perfect I think this takes the "hope" out of the equation.

This winter will be seriously written about and will be hard to equal for years.

Enjoy the snow of course but for the very serious weather watchers it is the synoptics that enthral.

From a perspective of Britain but not Ireland. No part of Ireland has got much snow. Ireland is getting off lightly indeed. It's bitterly cold but that's it.

Edited January 6, 2010 by fear sneachta

[danm]

GFS 00z looking good for saturday....http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn842.png

[tinybill]

morning all gfs is saying we all should stay in bed monday!!!

[West is Best]

Well looking at the runs, little doubt there's another week at least of this with the developing Scandi high. Models then going for the first Atlantic attack this time next week which I think will be repelled, at least at first. Although that may lead to a southerly draw for a day the boundary situation could be more snowfest.

Massive overnight snowfall here.

Enjoy! Once thought we'd never see this sort of winter in the UK again.

[Eugene]

Looks like becoming less cold next week BUT that is relative and it will still be way below average.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I think the models are hinting at blocking over europe just about repelling the atlantic keeping it nice, calm and cold esp for central, southern and eastern areas :lol:

People who think the weather this week we should get all winter will surely be disappointed but you just cant keep up this weeks kind of cold and snow for weeks and weeks on end, if we did we could be a continental climate and bored of snow, not taking much notice of it and going about our everyday lifes without worrying about it like in scandinavia

After saying that though looking at GFS 00Z once the high tilts bringing in a slack southeasterly temps are VERY cold indeed, must be all that cold off the continent

[TEITS]

Looks like becoming less cold next week BUT that is relative and it will still be way below average.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

I think the models are hinting at blocking over europe just about repelling the atlantic keeping it nice, calm and cold esp for central, southern and eastern areas

People who think the weather this week we should get all winter will surely be disappointed but you just cant keep up this weeks kind of cold and snow for weeks and weeks on end, if we did we could be a continental climate and bored of snow, not taking much notice of it and going about our everyday lifes without worrying about it like in scandinavia

After saying that though looking at GFS 00Z once the high tilts bringing in a slack southeasterly temps are VERY cold indeed, must be all that cold off the continent :o

Yes the upper temp ensembles are misleading.

Basically we use up the current cold pool to our E but this doesn't mean surface temps will be any warmer.

Excellent models this morning again with very little sign of anything milder.

[KTtom]

To add to the above, yes slightly less-cold but the emphasis for the snow seems to be down to the south west, both ECM and Met as well as Nogaps hint at an Atlantic attack from the SW as early as Tuesday next week.

[Frosty.]

A bitterly cold and wintry ECM 00z with the scandi high controlling our weather feeding in easterly winds to all areas next week with snow showers and severe frosts, low pressure moving towards the BI from the southwest but that would just tighten the isobars with strengthening ESE'ly icy cold winds, perhaps by T+240 there is a hint that less cold or milder air will be trying to push into the far south but most areas look like remaining very cold for a while yet. The UKMO 00z also suggesting something similar to the ecm but with winds more south of east, still bitter cold though off an icy cold near continent. In my opinion the ecm 00z is an upgrade on yesterday's runs.

More snow and severe frosts to come for the rest of this week as well although scotland should have a fine weekend but very frosty.

Edited January 6, 2010 by Frosty039

[Frosty.]

Thanks for that update Frosty039

No problem :wub:

I'm a bit surprised at some of the comments this morning, the ecm looks very wintry to me for next week with winds blowing in from russia, just hope it continues with this output. In my view, we will have at least another 10 days of very cold weather with severe frosts and snow at times.

[SLEETY]

Wonderous ECM AGAIN Many days of bitter weather and ECM brings in a true channel low later in its run,sensational

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Blast

Im sure uve been asked these Questions before. The GFS currently is busting to bring in a breakdown with the ensembles for my area going above -5 on the mean by 13th. However this appears contrary to the ECM and UKMO models. N.I. although cold certainly hasnt done particularly well snow wise in comparison to the mainland. I have watched yours and RJS forecasts with interest last yr and this. What are your views given the current model setup for the remainder of this month (in relation to your own thoughts and current models).

Cheers

PS u heading off to Hinterglemm this yr????

Crazy as it is so quiet in here???? Re current output the ECM shows two things, more snow for the SE this weekend with ENE'lies so bands of organised showers moving in. Attempted breakdown from the SW from 14th onwards [it will take two big swipes but 14-20 is peak energy period with very heavy snow progged for southern UK from SW approaches] and as we enter the last 3rd of Jan the cold will ease its grip. So 7-10 and 14-20 still stand for heavy snow for parts. Agree with Frosty that outputs look very cold and still at least a 7-10 days of very cold weather to come...indeed quite a few icw days to come.

No Hinterglemm this year, no money

RRR...you had my severe weather warning that's why I feel there is two more big snow periods. Easterly with troughs, then southerly tracking LPs to attack from SW 14th onwards enhanced by new moon.

BFTP

Edited January 6, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Rollo]

It would not surprise me in the least if after the two attacks from the SW that we only get a short respite before a renewed cold spell into february-would we like that well I see someone has started a new thread on the subject.

[casparjack]

There seems to be a little consensus this moring from ECM and GFS, they both try to move the high off into Europe in about ten days time.

I have a feeling however that there are many twists and turns before it happens...

[Optimus Prime]

There seems to be a little consensus this moring from ECM and GFS, they both try to move the high off into Europe in about ten days time.

I have a feeling however that there are many twists and turns before it happens...

Well yeah, it is 10 days away!

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Yep. In terms of ground temps, things look positive to remain on the cold side.

However, projections are around the 13th for the 850's to increase around the 13th, with +/-2 days marginality for the country.

This will decrease the snow risk, as the uppers become too warm to support this.

Still, its around a week away, things can change, and have done in the past.

Interesting though, whilst the Op run has gone for various scenarios over the last 5 days or so, the GFS Mean run has been quite consitant with the introduction of warmer (but not warm, just more average) 850's. You can see why the NOAA favoured this solution.

Edited January 6, 2010 by Shiny_Bottom_1

[Bobby]

Yep. In terms of ground temps, things look positive to remain on the cold side.

However, projections are around the 13th for the 850's to increase around the 13th, with +/-2 days marginality for the country.

This will decrease the snow risk, as the uppers become too warm to support this.

Don't need particularly cold uppers with a continental feed though? -2c/-3c 850s will do the job. Bitterly cold ground temps will create our own cold pool as well so there's a good chance of snow.

Strongly increasing signs of a snowy breakdown next week of which I think there's a good chance the cold could cling on for a good while.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Still disagreements between GFS and UKMO/ECM. The GFS 06Z keeps the high close to the UK, restricting precipitation to East Anglia and the southeast after the 8th and restricting its intensity and then brings less cold air around the high's periphery. The UKMO and ECM, on the other hand, keep a pronounced easterly regime going through to the end of their respective runs, and see only a modest "moderating out" of the cold air with further pulses coming down from the NE.

Given the GFS's dismal track record over the last couple of weeks I am backing the Euro models to be much nearer the mark than the GFS. A solution perhaps two-thirds to three-quarters of the way over towards ECMWF's evolution, relative to the GFS, may be most likely. The Euro models would also be better for snow lovers, of course.

Most likely, it will turn warmer in the north, warmer enough to turn precipitation sleety near the east coast, but the SE and East Anglia should hold onto sub-zero temperatures due to the proximity of the frozen continent.

From an IMBY perspective the models are agreed on a substantial snowfall over Norfolk tomorrow.

Edited January 6, 2010 by Thundery wintry showers

[Iceni]

Looks like becoming less cold next week BUT that is relative and it will still be way below average.

http://www.wzkarten3..._London_ens.png

I think the models are hinting at blocking over europe just about repelling the atlantic keeping it nice, calm and cold esp for central, southern and eastern areas

People who think the weather this week we should get all winter will surely be disappointed but you just cant keep up this weeks kind of cold and snow for weeks and weeks on end, if we did we could be a continental climate and bored of snow, not taking much notice of it and going about our everyday lifes without worrying about it like in scandinavia

We can't get winter weather like this every winter but the cold and snow sure can stick around for weeks and weeks — it certainly did in '63 — 11 weeks of bitter cold, snow. I don't recall getting bored with it (although my mother probably did).

GP's posts (take a bow GP) indicate that something like this could be occurring again this winter, although not nearly as severe, just when we were all told that winter snow and ice in the south was a thing of the past — get the right synoptics in place and it can happen.

[Mark Bayley]

Here's the 850hpa temps for the ECM. Looks interesting for the south with the possibility of further snow as the low bumps into the cold, still ages away however one to keep an eye on. To my eyes it seems as though the cold spell would break down after T240. Changes will always occur it at this time frame though. Overall still looking cold if not very cold for the short and medium term

ECM ensemble mean is colder than the op with the control run very cold. Most ensembles rise towards the end of the time frame

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

[Eugene]

After 10 days some are bound to rise mark, not going to get perfect agreement that far out, looks like staying cold for the next two weeks with surface cold, some snow cover could remain in many parts for weeks

[mushymanrob]

models suggesting that it might all be over later next week

[NorthernRab]

models suggesting that it might all be over later next week

GFS is suggesting that it might all be over by next week, but it's hardly been performing well recently!

[Frosty.]

models suggesting that it might all be over later next week

Which models? the latest ecm shows winds from russia all next week and the ukmo also looks very cold with a continental flow. I think the 12z will tell us whether the ecm follows the gfs or the other way round.

[Bobby]

Latest NOGAPS showing Blizzard #2 from the East for the weekend, was showing earlier too:

ECM and UKMO hint at this too.

Some GFS ensembles showing it too.

Man the snow plows again!

[Don]

models suggesting that it might all be over later next week

Only a few years ago, we would have been more than happy with a 3/4 day cold snap. Now we're looking at a possible breakdown still over a week away! Many people (myself included) would have thought a cold spell like this would have been almost impossible not so long ago.